Analyzing Premier League predictions

Soccer writer Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research platform to analyze his Premier League season predictions, including two ProVision charts that show how much better Liverpool and Manchester City have been than the rest of the league.

“…it seemed logical to predict that Liverpool would finish behind Manchester City, given that their goal- and shot-creation wasn’t quite at Pep Guardiola and Co’s level last season. Well, the latter remained true Liverpool’s goal differential declined by 15 goals, and yet they won two more points, while City’s dropped off by five and their points haul declined by 17.

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Liverpool have been wildly efficient at turning goals into points, while City have gone the opposite way. I feel pretty confident in saying there are reasons behind this: Liverpool are amazing at set pieces and play both a unique defensive and attacking style, while City’s defense gives up super-high-quality chances that are more likely to turn into goals and they do seem to completely demoralize teams and pour on the goals in already-decided games in a way Liverpool do not.”

Full article: No Grass in the Clouds