In his post-draft NFL power rankings, Sheil Kapadia suggest the 49ers are set to bounce back after a tough 2020 season:

“There are a number of statistical indicators to suggest the 49ers could be due for a bounce-back season in 2021. According to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, only two teams were hurt more by turnovers than the 49ers last season. It’s true that bad teams often get crushed by turnovers. But there’s also luck and randomness involved. A little regression to the mean with turnovers would help San Francisco in a big way.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

Michael-Shawn Dugar uses TruMedia’s PFF-powered research platform to look at what Aldon Smith brings to the Seahawks:

“Smith had 50 quarterback pressures, five sacks and a generated pressure on 12.1 percent of his pass-rush reps, ranking 35th among qualifying edge defenders, according to TruMedia. He was one spot behind Chicago’s Khalil Mack and one above Cleveland’s Myles Garrett, both of whom made the Pro Bowl in 2020. Smith’s total pressures would have led the Seahawks last season; his pressure percentage would have ranked second among Seattle defensive linemen and would have been third overall behind safety Jamal Adams and defensive end Carlos Dunlap.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

For The Athletic, Sheil Kapadia ponders what he’s learned about all 32 NFL teams this offseason, including the Raiders' questionable moves:

“In 2019 and 2020, the Raiders’ offense ranked eighth in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) per snap metric. Translation: The offense has worked, and offensive efficiency is the biggest key to sustained success in the NFL. A big part of that was the play of the offensive line. But in the offseason, Jon Gruden decided to move on from offensive tackle Trent Brown, center Rodney Hudson and guard Gabe Jackson.

The initial thought was to use some of those financial resources on the defensive side of the ball, but then they signed running back Kenyan Drake to a two-year, $11 million deal with $8.5 million guaranteed.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

Can Sam Darnold follow Ryan Tannehill's career path? Sheil Kapadia analyzes the Jets-Panthers trade:

“As for the Panthers, they’ve done nothing to hide the fact that they want an upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater. So what’s the case for taking a chance on Darnold? One, trading for players who underachieved under Adam Gase is not a bad plan. The name that will come up often is Ryan Tannehill. In three seasons (2016-2018) on the Miami Dolphins with Gase, Tannehill produced -0.04 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, according to TruMedia’s model. That ranked 33rd out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. As a point of reference, Darnold has performed at a similar level (-0.06 EPA per play) over the last three seasons — two with Gase.

Tannehill turned his career around with the Tennessee Titans and has produced 0.27 EPA per play, which ranks second. The Panthers will hope that Darnold can make a similar leap in a new scheme with better coaching and an improved supporting cast, led by Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson (a former Jets teammate of Darnold).”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

NFL executives and talent evaluators give Mike Sando their thoughts on every team's free-agency period so far, including one evaluator thinking the Rams overpaid for Matthew Stafford:

“I think really the Rams overpaid for Stafford,” an evaluator said. “He’s an upgrade over Goff, but they gave up a ton. They are clearly in win-now mode. Are they better this year? Yeah, but the amount of capital they gave up to get Stafford was outrageous. I don’t think Goff is that much worse than Stafford. He is not as good, but not terrible. Maybe I’m mis-evaluating Goff.”

Stafford’s Lions went 11-5 and 10-6 in the only two seasons they ranked among the top 10 in defensive expected points added (EPA), according to TruMedia. They ranked 20th or worse eight times. The Rams were No. 1 in that category last season. Over the past 15 seasons, every team that finished first in defensive EPA had a winning record, including teams that got 10-plus starts from Mitch Trubisky, Blake Bortles, Mark Sanchez, Kyle Orton and Trevor Siemian.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

The Athletic continues to use TruMedia’s PFF-powered research platform extensively in offseason coverage of teams including:

Seahawks: “Seattle is likely attracted to his physical tools. (Akhello) Witherspoon is 6-foot-3 with long arms and a 4.45 40-yard dash at the NFL scouting combine. He hasn’t gotten his hands on the ball much, totaling just 24 passes defensed in his career. That ranks 93rd since 2017, with only four interceptions. In 2020, Witherspoon had four passes defensed in 203 coverage snaps (per TruMedia) and one interception – all in San Francisco’s final three games.”

49ers: “Although (Alex) Mack may have lost a step since his dominant prime, he’s still a solid pass protector who allowed only one sack over 633 pass-blocking snaps in 2020, per TruMedia. Mack will mark a surefire improvement for a 49ers’ center situation that endured a few disasters in 2020. By the end of the season, the 49ers were starting their fourth-string center, Daniel Brunskill. This also created a big issue at right guard, Brunskill’s original position.”

Giants: “(Leonard) Williams, who turns 27 in June, recorded a career-high 11.5 sacks in 2020. Per TruMedia, his 12.7 percent pressure rate ranked among the league’s top-five interior defensive linemen. Williams has also been a stout run defender throughout his entire career, which began with the New York Jets in 2015. The Giants traded a third- and fifth-round pick for him in October of 2019.”

Read More

Michael-Shawn Dugar looks at Seahawks free-agent running back options, including former Packer Jamaal Williams:

“Williams, who will be 26 at the start of the season, also has potential to create a nice 1-2 punch with Penny. The former Green Bay Packer put together an efficient season complementing Aaron Jones in 2020. Williams ranked third in EPA per carry and 15th in total EPA on rushes, per TruMedia. He caught 31 of 35 targets (with two drops) and averaged as many yards per reception (7.6) as Jones. Production by Green Bay running backs must be taken with a grain of salt because the Packers’ offensive line is elite, and it’s unreasonable to assume someone carrying the ball behind that front will bring that same exact efficiency to a team with a lesser run-blocking group. Still, Williams would be a low-risk option and has shown to have talent that may be showcased regardless of the O-line.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

Aaron Reiss checks in on the Texans free-agency board, including their defensive line options:

“DT Sheldon Rankins (27): The No. 12 overall pick in 2016 was solid but unspectacular in five seasons with the Saints. He played 40 percent of defensive snaps last season and recorded nine QB hits and 1.5 sacks. He produced pressure on 8.9 percent of opportunities, according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus. That would’ve ranked second among Texans defensive linemen, behind only Charles Omenihu.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

What players will the Eagles target in free agency? Sheil Kapadia, Bo Wulf and Zach Berman have some ideas:

Kapadia: Malcolm Brown

“This is another area where I wouldn’t spend. You can find a complement to Miles Sanders in the draft or sign someone in August. But for the purposes of this exercise, I’ll go with Brown. He’s a physical inside runner and ranked seventh in TruMedia’s success rate metric last season. Brown produced a career-high 581 yards from scrimmage with the Rams in 2020.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

With their tight salary-cap situation, whom might the 49ers pursue in free agency? David Lombardi looks at their options, including edge rusher Carl Lawson:

“It’s been assumed that, if the 49ers spend top dollar on re-signing Williams, they’ll have to acquire a bookend for Nick Bosa through the NFL Draft. But given an extra $10 million, the 49ers might change gears and look seriously into signing a player like the 25-year-old Lawson, who’s been very productive for Cincinnati.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

With the Seahawks releasing defensive end Carlos Dunlap, they’re putting themselves in a risky spot, writes Michael-Shawn Dugar:

“Extension talks clearly stalled and now Dunlap, after a season in which he transformed Seattle’s pass rush, will get to see if another team places a greater value on his services.

This is a risk for Seattle because Dunlap was Seattle’s best defensive lineman in 2020. He led the position group in pressure percentage (12.6), according to TruMedia, and finished second in sacks and fourth in total pressures despite playing just eight games.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

Ben Baldwin goes deep into the numbers to figure out what happened to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense in the second half of the 2020 season:

“Here is another place we can bring data to bear, thanks to PFF coverage labels provided by TruMedia. Let’s take a look at the percentage of early downs where opponents played a coverage that uses two high safeties, as charted by PFF:

If we compare the dots in each week (how a defense usually plays on the back end) to the logos (how they played against the Seahawks), we indeed see that as Carroll noted, teams played more two-high looks against the Seahawks than they did in their other games, with the major exceptions being the Eagles and Jets, which were both comfortable wins for the Seahawks. Of the three big outliers in the chart who played more two-high than usual — the Cowboys, Vikings, and Giants — the Seattle offense struggled in two of those three games (the latter two).”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

How do the Texans replace J.J. Watt and improve a defense that struggled last season? Aaron Reiss looks at Houston's options:

“Not only did Watt lead the team in sacks (5.0) and QB hits (17), he also had 14 TFLs, which doubled the next-closest Texans defender, inside linebacker Zach Cunningham. The 2020 Texans had the fourth-worst defense since 2000, according to TruMedia’s EPA per play data. They might be even worse in 2021, but they won’t simply be a Watt-less version of last season’s unit. There should be a lot of turnover on this portion of the roster.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

Mike Sando examines Dak Prescott’s contract situation, including how Prescott compares to other quarterbacks in the 2016 draft class:

“Of the 15 quarterbacks drafted in 2016, Prescott … ranks first among them in EPA per pass attempt. He leads his draft class in total touchdowns (106 passing, 24 rushing), yards per attempt (7.7), winning percentage (.597, counting playoffs) and passer rating (97.2).

Yet, even if Prescott has outproduced 2016 first-round picks Goff and Wentz, he was not evaluated as a first-round talent entering the NFL, which could affect how some teams see him today.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

Mike Sando compares Carson Wentz’s numbers to those of his Colts predecessors, Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers:

“Wentz’s drop in production during his final games in Philadelphia shows up on the chart below, which shows cumulative team expected points added (EPA) by passing for Wentz, Luck and Rivers over each quarterback’s most recent 69 starts, using TruMedia’s EPA model. The 69-start cutoff allows for comparing Wentz’s entire career against equal time frames for other recent Colts quarterbacks. …

• Rivers’ pass offenses: 5.8 EPA per game. That would rank inside the top 10 for the 32 teams over the past five seasons.

• Luck’s pass offenses: 4.5 EPA per game, which would rank just outside the top 10 over the past five seasons.

• Wentz’s pass offenses: 2.0 EPA per game, which would rank just outside the top 20.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

Michael-Shawn Dugar predicts which Seahawks free agents will stay and go, using TruMedia’s research platform for context:

“Benson Mayowa ranked second on the team in quarterback pressures with 34, according to TruMedia, tying strong safety Jamal Adams (defensive tackle Jarran Reed had 38). Only Carlos Dunlap had a higher pressure percentage among Seattle’s defensive linemen. Considering Mayowa’s price point, producing six sacks and a nearly identical pressure rate as Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young is a solid season. Other teams could be interested in his services but a number of potential cap casualties at his position could hurt his market; there are going to be some very young, talented pass rushers on the street this offseason regardless of what the salary cap ends up being next month.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More

Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s research platform and success-rate metric throughout his rankings of the NFL’s top free-agent running backs:

“If there’s one back in this class who can expect to get a big payday, it’s (Aaron) Jones. With 3,017 yards from scrimmage since the start of 2019 (ranking fifth league-wide among running backs), Jones has been one of the best all-around backs in recent years. He ranked 16th out of 55 qualifying backs in RPOE and 14th in success rate last season. Jones’ 829 receiving yards over the past two seasons rank sixth among all backs, and his 51 runs of 10-plus yards are tied for sixth.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More