Avoid Ederson and Man City defense

ESPN’s Kieran Darcy uses TruMedia’s expected-goals model to recommend avoiding Manchester City’s defense against Aston Villa this weekend…

“I won't be going with Ederson as my goalkeeper, despite Man City being such heavy favorites. Aston Villa has scored 15 goals in nine games and only four teams have scored more. The underlying numbers back that up. Villa sits fourth in xG (expected goals) according to TruMedia's model at 16.59, behind only Man City (29.78), Chelsea (19.41) and Liverpool (19.17). Plus, Man City has been shakier at the back than usual so far this season, already conceding nine goals. The team is only fifth-best in the league in xG conceded at 11.29.”

Full article: ESPN.com