Take the Dolphins to cover vs Raiders

Sheil Kapadia likes the Dolphins (-3) over Oakland, in part because of the Raiders terrible defense:

“The Raiders are 2-6 with a minus-67 point differential in December over the last two seasons, and one of those wins was the “Gregg Williams game” against the Jets. Overall, Jon Gruden has done some impressive things. The Raiders are eighth offensively over the last two seasons, according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. The defense, though, is 32nd. And overall, Gruden has an 18-28 record. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are trying to hold off the Ravens for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. It’s unclear as of this writing whether Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota will start for the Raiders. The Dolphins’ offense has not been great, but this could be a “get right” game for Tua Tagovailoa, and Miami’s defense has been impressive.”

Full article: The Athletic