Jared Dubin uses TruMedia’s PFF-integrated research platform to analyze how the Buccaneers struggled to defend the Chiefs pass game in Week 12:

“The answers were there for Mahomes all game, and not just when targeting Hill. Take a look at Tampa's coverage breakdown, and how Mahomes performed against each of them, courtesy of Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. …

The single-high safety looks got torched by Hill early in the game, so the Bucs changed things up a bit in the second half, which you can see by taking a look at the coverage breakdowns before and after halftime. …

The more passive strategy the Bucs used in the second half wasn't limited to their coverages. They also blitzed far less often after the break. Mahomes lit up their blitzes by going 5 of 8 for 86 yards and a touchdown in the first half, so Todd Bowles only sent one blitz in the second half. It didn't much matter.”

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Chris Trapasso uses TruMedia’s research platform to analyze the performance of young players in the conference title games:

“Tristan Wirfs, OT, Buccaneers

Assignment: Packers EDGE Za'Darius Smith

Wirfs pitched a shutout against an array of Packers pass rushers in the NFC title game, quite the amazing feat for a first-year player. On 38 pass-blocking snaps, Wirfs did not surrender a single pressure of Tom Brady.

Smith had just one pressure himself, which made for the fourth outing all season in which he failed to accumulate multiple pressures, and one of the other games was Week 6's loss to the Buccaneers.

Wirfs is every bit as good as the hype.”

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In his AFC title game preview, Jared Dubin looks at how good Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have been against the blitz:

“You don't really want to blitz either one of them, because they will pick apart your defense if you don't have enough defenders in coverage. Allen ranked seventh in the league with a 110.9 passer rating against the blitz this season, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, while Mahomes ranked first with an absurd 136.5 rating. They each rarely got sacked when blitzed (3.8 percent of dropbacks for Allen, 2.9 percent for Mahomes), and often made something happen by scrambling away from pressure, which they did quite well throughout the year. Both Allen (121.9) and Mahomes (116.4) lit man coverage on fire this season, displaying the ability to identify the correct receiver and throw him open on the rare occasion that their offensive coaching staffs didn't scheme someone open to begin with.”

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Jared Dubin previews the NFC title game, looking at the Buccaneers tendency to stack the box defensively, and how that might work against the Packers:

“Because of that focus on the run, though, the Bucs can be beaten through the air. In fact, they seemingly encourage opposing offenses to throw, based on their alignment. According to Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, the Buccaneers used at least seven defenders in the box on 59 percent of their defensive snaps, about 5 percent more often than the average team in the league (54.2 percent). The same is true of their usage of eight-man boxes: Tampa aligned that way 31.6 percent of the time, compared with a league average of 25.5 percent.

The more defenders in the box, the more advantageous it is for the opponent to pass instead of run. That held true against the Bucs, with opponents posting their best EPA per play rates against Tampa's eight-man boxes, per TruMedia.”

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In his Rams-Packers preview, Jared Dubin is excited to see how Aaron Rodgers fares against the Rams Secondary, which typically takes away deep passes:

“The second most interesting battle here is Packers head coach and play-caller Matt LaFleur against Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. The Rams play more two-high safety looks pre-snap than any team in the league, and they almost always use a light box. Why? Because Staley believes the primary object of his defense should be to take away deep passes, and he's just fine inviting opponents to run the ball. The Rams finished the season ranked third in the NFL in rushing defense DVOA despite lining up with six or fewer players in the box on 67.6 percent of their snaps -- a rate far higher than the 45.7 percent league average, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia.”

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When the Browns have the ball against the Chiefs, watch out for Baker Mayfield and the bootleg, writes Jared Dubin:"

“The Kansas City defense didn't face all that much bootleg action this season, with teams throwing only 51 such passes, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. They allowed 33 completions for 281 yards, five touchdowns, one interception, and a 103.5 passer rating on those plays. Mayfield threw 68 bootleg passes (around 33 percent more than the number the Chiefs faced on defense), completing 45 for 702 yards, four scores, one pick, and a 113.7 rating that ranked sixth-best among qualified passers. He also added 57 yards on six scrambles.”

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Containing Derrick Henry will be key to Baltimore’s chances against Tennessee, writes Jared Dubin in his Ravens-Titans preview:

“As you're likely well aware, Derrick Henry in on yet another rampage, just as he was around this time last year. He's coming off an absurd 34-carry, 250-yard, two-touchdown trampling of the Houston Texans, which was the capper to his 196-carry, 1,184-yard, nine-touchdown second half of the season. Just when it seemed like he couldn't get more impossible to tackle than he was last year, well, he did this. Henry broke a league-high 75 tackles on running plays this season, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, and averaged 3.94 yards after contact per attempt. The Titans do a marvelous job designing cutbacks and wind-backs into their running plays so opponents have to try to bring Henry down from the side instead of straight on, a task at which they typically fail with laughable results.”

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Jared Dubin previews Colts-Bills, using TruMedia’s research platform to compare the Colts defense with the Bills offense:

“Buffalo's passing game is built to create explosive plays, which it did as well as any team in the league this season. Indianapolis' defense is explicitly built on the idea of limiting explosive plays in the passing game, which it did as well as any team in the league this season. So, what happens when the unstoppable force meets the immovable object?

There are a couple things that may actually be working in the Colts' favor here. The first is that the Colts are an extraordinarily zone-heavy team, and the Bills found their most passing success against man coverage. Indianapolis played zone on 77.7 percent of opponent dropbacks this season, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, one of the highest rates in the league.”

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Jared Dubin puts Bruce Arians into the third tier of playoff coaches, in part because of his conservative nature:

“For a coach who made his name as a "no risk-it, no biscuit" guy, Arians sure is conservative on game days. The Buccaneers went for it only 14.1 percent of the time on fourth down this season, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, the sixth-lowest rate in the league.”

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Jared Dubin continues his series on young wide receivers, using TruMedia’s research platform to focus on the best of the best:

“The technicians and monsters have drawn the highest target rate, being thrown the ball on 21.9 percent of their routes run. They've run routes nearly as deep as the deep/burner types, but they've been much more efficient with their targets, creating first downs (45.5 percent to 39.2 percent) and explosive plays (22.9 percent to 19.5 percent) far more often as a percentage of their targets. They've also created nearly as many yards after the catch (5.06 per reception) as the slot mavens and offensive weapons, whose targets tend to come closer to the line of scrimmage and thus designed to pick up YAC. In the aggregate, this group of players has managed to be far motion efficient on a per-route basis than any other, generating 2.16 yards per route run.”

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Jared Dubin previews the final Monday Night game of the season, highlighting the importance of the Patriots keeping Josh Allen in the pocket:

“The key to containing Allen will be to get pressure while also not allowing him to escape to the outside -- especially to his right. Allen has thrown for 366 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions when escaping pressure to the right side of the field, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. Going to his left, it's 160 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick. Getting into his line of vision without allowing him to roll right and load up that cannon on his arm is key to stopping the Buffalo passing attack. The Patriots have been below-average at generating pressure this year, though, per PFF and TruMedia, notching a sack, hit, or hurry on 32.8 percent of opponent dropbacks against a league average of 37.6 percent.”

Full article: CBS Sports

Jared Dubin preview’s the Chargers-Raiders game, including the importance of how the Raiders protecting Derek Carr:

“Some of the downturn has to be attributable to the fact that Carr has been under pressure more often. He's never been all that adept at dealing with rushers in his face, and this season has been no different. According to Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, Vegas' pressure rate has spiked from 30 percent to 35 percent over the past three weeks, as Carr's performance (and the offense's overall) have taken a step backwards. On the season, Carr has a 64.9 passer rating under pressure, throwing just three touchdowns against four interceptions. His rating has jumped more than 50 points, to 115.1, when throwing from a clean pocket.

So the key in this game, then, will be keeping him well protected. The Chargers have pressured opponents on 36 percent of dropbacks, per PFF and Tru Media, a rate just south of the 37 percent league average. But Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are extremely capable, and have proven their ability to take over games on occasion. It'll be important for the Raiders' offensive line to make sure those guys don't get too many one-on-one opportunities, and to have Carr get the ball out quickly when they're singled up on the edge.“

Full article: CBS Sports