Can run games be better?

FiveThirtyEight’s Josh Hermsmeyer uses TruMedia’s animated play card to demonstrate a guard pulling into the gap ahead of a running back, then uses TruMedia’s research tool to dig into the data…

“The diagram below shows a pull in action. It highlights a guard on the left side of the formation who leaves his spot on the line and travels down the line of scrimmage, into the gap the running back (in green) is heading toward.

Pulls have been quite effective across the NFL in recent years. Since 2016, the first year for which we have Next Gen Stats tracking data, rushing plays in which a lineman pulled and then blocked three gaps or more away from where he initially lined up have averaged 0.01 EPA per play. While that might sound meager, compared to plays where no blocker pulled (-0.05 EPA), it’s a striking level of efficiency. And in the low red zone, conventionally defined as from the 10-yard line to the opponent’s goal, pulling generates 0.03 more EPA per play than plays with no puller.”

Full article: FiveThirtyEight

In the MediaRafe AndersonDecember 13, 2019nfl, FiveThirtyEightComment

The effect of delays on penalty conversion

For FiveThirtyEight, TruMedia's Albert Larcada analyzed how waiting time affects penalty conversion, revealing that longer delay appear to increase the likelihood of a miss.

"The success rate of penalties with a wait time of less than 150 seconds is 76 percent, while the success rate of penalties with a wait time of greater than 150 seconds is 73 percent. With the relatively large sample of penalties we have, the difference is statistically significant."

Full article: FiveThirtyEight (by Albert Larcada, Director of Analytics)

In the MediaRafe AndersonJuly 11, 2018soccer, FiveThirtyEightComment