Posts tagged nfl
What will Seahawks do with Carson?
What will Seahawks do with Carson?

The Seahawks have several big free-agency decisions on offense, including what to do with Chris Carson, says Mike Dugar:

“In the 2018 and 2019 seasons, only Ezekiel Elliott had more carries than Chris Carson, but Carson dropped to 30th in 2020 due in large part to missing four games with injury and Seattle’s evolution into a pass-first team. After seeing the ball as often as any RB in the league, Carson had 11.8 carries per game in the regular season, ranking 29th in the league in 2020. Carson’s raw stats took a hit — he fell well short of 1,000 rushing yards (681) and had only five rushing touchdowns after totaling 16 over the previous two seasons. But some of his efficiency numbers, like his total rushing EPA, are still elite — he ranks fifth among RBs in total rush EPA and eighth in EPA per rush, according to TruMedia.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Will teams choose fourth and 15?
Will teams choose fourth and 15?

How might the NFL’s alternative to onside kicks affect trailing teams’ strategy? Neil Greenberg takes a look, using TruMedia’s research tool…

“Not only would an attempt on fourth and 15 provide added drama, it would also give the trailing team a better chance. Over the past 18 years, teams have converted 32 of 115 attempts in this scenario for a 28 percent success rate, per TruMedia. If we widen the parameters to include third and 15 (a decent proxy, given a team would normally punt on the ensuing fourth down if it wasn’t trailing late), the success rate drops to 18 percent (470 for 2,580), but that’s still an improvement over the traditional onside kick.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Can the Cowboys run The Bird Gantlet?

Can the Cowboys be the first team to run The Bird Gantlet in a season, by beating all five teams with bird mascots? Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s EPA model to detail why the Ravens are the biggest challenge:

“In Week 13, Dallas will visit the Ravens. The reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson, is the second choice to win it again in 2020 behind Patrick Mahomes, per the odds offered by Caesars Entertainment. This will be a tough one for Dallas, which is listed as a seven-point underdog. Baltimore scored 11 more points per game than expected on offense last year (a league high) after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play per data from TruMedia. The Ravens also saved almost five points per game on defense (fifth-best).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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NFL's toughest early-season schedules
NFL's toughest early-season schedules

The Texans, Redskins and Broncos face difficult schedules during the crucial first four weeks, writes Neil Greenberg in The Washington Post, using TruMedia’s research platform and EPA model:

“Houston’s schedule begins with a Thursday night matchup at the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, who are early 10-point favorites. … The Texans’ home opener comes in Week 2 against reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, who are five-point favorites. Houston then travels to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers, who are also five-point favorites. After that, the Texans host the Minnesota Vikings, whom they have never defeated in four meetings. That game is listed as a pick ’em.

Last season, the Chiefs scored almost eight points per game more than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, the fifth-best rate in the NFL, per TruMedia. The Ravens scored a league-leading 15 points per game more than expected. The Vikings were sixth (seven more points per game), and the Steelers ranked 17th despite using two backup quarterbacks after Ben Roethlisberger suffered a season-ending injury in the second game.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Which Teams Most Deserve a Super Bowl Win?

Which teams most deserve a Super Bowl win, based on their recent success and title drought? Neil Greenberg puts the Chargers at the top:

“The Chargers are coming off a dismal 5-11 season yet are just one year removed from a 12-win campaign, and they boast seven playoff appearances over the past 18 years, including four straight from 2006 to 2009. During that stretch they produced 408 net points more than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play (offensive and defensive), per data from TruMedia. Only the Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts (Super Bowl champion in 2006) and New England Patriots (16-0 in 2007) were better over that four-year time frame.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Are Brady and Gronk the Best Passing Duo in Recent Years?

With Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski reunited in Tampa, Neil Greenberg examines whether they’re the most productive passing duo in recent years, using TruMedia’s EPA model as a measuring stick:

From the time Gronkowski was selected in the second round of the 2010 draft to his temporary retirement after the 2018 season, no quarterback and tight end produced more excepted points added during the regular season than Brady and Gronkowski. Their production not only tops the QB-to-TE leader board, it is also 210 points more than the next-best duo of Rivers and Gates. For comparison, the difference between Brady-Gronkowski and Rivers-Gates is the same as between Rivers-Gates and the 29th-best duo on the list, Andy Dalton and Jermaine Gresham of the Cincinnati Bengals (44 expected points added).

Full article: The Washington Post

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What Does the Jalen Hurts Pick Say about Carson Wentz?

The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s EPA model to ponder what the Jalen Hurts draft pick says about how the Eagles view Carson Wentz:

Wentz has played four seasons. Let’s throw away his rookie year and focus on the last three. Here’s where he’s ranked in ESPN’s QBR and where the Eagles passing game has ranked in Expected Points Added (EPA) in games he’s played, per TruMedia.

Full article: The Athletic

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Cam Newton among best available free agents

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s NFL research site in his article on the best remaining free agents, including Cam Newton…

“The good news is, when healthy, [Newton] drives the offense. From 2011 to 2017 he accounted for more than two-thirds of his team’s offensive touchdowns (69 percent), per data from TruMedia. That included nearly half of Carolina’s rushing touchdowns (45 percent).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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How the Texans can replace Hopkins
How the Texans can replace Hopkins

How might the Texas replace DeAndre Hopkins’ production? Neil Greenberg has some ideas, with help from TruMedia’s research tool and expected-points model:

“…on throws from quarterback Deshaun Watson to Hopkins in 2019, the Texans scored 32 more points per 100 passes than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each throw, per data from TruMedia. On passes to Fuller that improved to 37 more points per 100 passes than expected and went even higher on throws to Stills (57 more points per 100 passes).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Projecting a Brady-less AFC East

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg looks at the AFC East without Tom Brady, finding that the Jets have work to do…

”New York, by comparison, has been quiet, with key players opting for greener pastures elsewhere. The Jets did sign offensive tackle George Fant, but much more is needed to fix an offense that scored a league-low 10 points per game fewer than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Can 49ers slow down Kelce?

Neil Greenberg highlights three matchups to watch in the Super Bowl, including how the 49ers and safety Jaquiski Tartt might handle Travis Kelce…

“[Jaquiski] Tartt missed four regular season games with a rib injury, but his postseason presence is crucial for San Francisco. He’s an aggressive tackler who isn’t afraid to help stack the box against bruising running backs, but he also has enough coverage skills to match up with tight ends. Of the seven touchdowns the 49ers allowed to tight ends this season (including the playoffs), just one, Jacob Hollister’s TD in Week 10 for Seattle, came against Tartt in coverage. In games Tartt suited up this season, the 49ers allowed a passer rating of 80.7 when the opposing quarterback targeted a tight end, per data from TruMedia. That ballooned to 113.8 when Tartt was out for four games.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Chiefs defense may struggle vs Henry
Chiefs defense may struggle vs Henry

Stats suggest the Chiefs defense could struggle against Derrick Henry in Sunday’s AFC title game, says Neil Greenberg in The Washington Post…

“…the Chiefs stop just 14 percent of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage, the lowest mark in the NFL during the regular season and playoffs combined, per data from TruMedia. It could be an ideal spot for Henry and the Titans.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Bosa key to 49ers' defensive dominance

Nick Bosa and the 49ers ability to get sacks are crucial to their defensive dominance this season, writes Neil Greenberg…

“The value of those sacks was enormous. San Francisco’s defense allowed 2.0 points per drive this season when the 49ers didn’t have a sack and only 0.5 points per drive when the team registered one sack or more, per data from TruMedia. The rate of opponents going three-and-out against them also improved from 33 to 47 percent.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Sherman is Packers' kryptonite

49ers corner Richard Sherman may be the Packers’ kryptonite, because Aaron Rodgers rarely throws at him, writes Neil Greenberg…

“Teams have scored four fewer points per game against San Francisco than expected on passing plays this year after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw, according to data from TruMedia. Sherman surrendered just 236 yards when targeted in coverage during the regular season and playoffs, and he was never beaten for more than 25 yards, with opponents gaining a league-low 0.4 yards per snap when targeting Sherman in coverage.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Titans rushing like no other team

The Titans running game is unlike any other team’s, thanks to Derrick Henry and a strong offensive line, writes Neil Greenberg:

“Tennessee Coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith have been leaning on Henry much more in the playoffs, including in unconventional situations. The Titans ran the ball 47 percent of the time during the regular season but have done so 70 percent of the time in the postseason, per data from TruMedia. They even ran the ball 60 percent of the time when they trailed the New England Patriots in the first round; the other teams have run the ball 33 percent of the time when trailing in this year’s playoffs.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Giants on the wrong path
Giants on the wrong path

The Giants hired head coach Joe Judge in part for his run-focused mentality. That looks like a mistake, writes Neil Greenberg:

“One reason the NFL’s best teams run the ball more is because they are often ahead, allowing them to run the ball to kill clock. NFL teams rush the ball 30 percent of the time when trailing by 10 points or more, 44 percent of the time when the score is tied and 55 percent of the time when enjoying a lead of 10 points or more, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Take the Chiefs vs Houston's defense

In picking the Chiefs to cover against the Texans on Sunday, Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research tool and EPA model:

“The Texans’ defense allowed 2.2 points per drive during the regular season (ranking 24th) and opponents scored a league-high 71 percent of the time against Houston inside the red zone. Houston’s opponents managed to score four more points per game than you would expect after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play in 2019, per data from TruMedia. Only four non-playoff teams (Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals) were worse.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Kittle vs tough Vikings defense

George Kittle is the best tight end in the NFL, and he’ll match up with a Vikings defense that has been the league’s best against tight ends this season, writes Neil Greenberg:

“On Saturday, Kittle will face a Vikings defense that was stout against tight ends this season. Minnesota managed to hold opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 62.2 passer rating when they targeted tight ends in coverage, allowing just one touchdown with seven interceptions, per data from TruMedia. However, the Vikings haven’t yet faced a tight end like Kittle this season, because there isn’t one in the NFL.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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49ers defense hasn't been great lately

The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia makes his Divisional Round picks, including how the Vikings can upset the 49ers:

“What a Vikings win looks like: For the second straight week, Zimmer cooks up a special defensive game plan that keeps the 49ers’ outside zone run schemes in check. He doubles Kittle in key passing situations, and Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter spend the afternoon in Garoppolo’s face. The 49ers’ defense, which according to TruMedia ranked just 17th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per snap in the second half of the season, looks nothing like the unit that dominated in September and October. Kirk Cousins plays with newfound confidence after last week’s win over the Saints, and the Vikings find success targeting right cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon early and often. In the locker room after the game, Zimmer swaps out his regular hat for a Shanahan-like flat-brim and yells “You like that?!” as Vikings players mob him in celebration.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Texans offense is their edge vs Bills

The reasons for picking the Texans to beat the Bills are clear, writes Sheil Kapadia for The Athletic:

“The case for the Texans: Their advantage is obvious. It’s at quarterback with Deshaun Watson playing behind an offensive line that can give him better protection than he’s had at any point in his career. During the regular season, the Texans’ offense ranked sixth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per snap, according to TruMedia. “

Full article: The Athletic

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