Matthew Stafford is worth pursuing this offseason, writes Neil Greenberg, because his numbers are better than his record:

“San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo could be available, too, but his QBR has been below Stafford’s in each of the past three seasons, not to mention Garoppolo started all 16 games just once over the past three years. Since 2018, Stafford has been worth five more points per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each of his throws, per data from TruMedia. Garoppolo has been worth four points per game more than expected. Trubisky was worth two points per game over expectations.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Neil Greenberg analyzes the most likely Super Bowl matchups, with the Buccaneers coming in as the third favorite to emerge from the NFC:

“[Tampa Bay’s] path to the Super Bowl is the third easiest in the conference thanks both to being good at football and a first-round game against the 7-9 Washington Football Team. The Bucs are 8½-point favorites over Washington. …

And according to data from TruMedia, Tampa Bay was nine points per game better than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play on offense and defense. Only Green Bay exceeded expectations by a greater margin (10 points per game).”

Full article: The Washington Post

Using TruMedia’s research platform and EPA model, Neil Greenberg posits that the Chiefs are getting lucky this season:

“The offense isn’t the problem, but it is masking one. The Chiefs are scoring 2.7 points per drive this season, the third-most behind the Green Bay Packers (3.0) and Tennessee Titans (2.8). Kansas City sustains drives, too, and is only forced to go three-and-out 21 percent of the time, the lowest rate in the league this year. Plus, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 66 percent of his passes for a league-leading 4,740 yards, 38 touchdowns and six interceptions, producing a 108.2 passer rating. He is the second-most valuable passer of 2020 per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating and the team has scored 12 more points per game than expected on his throws after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each passing play, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In his Week 15 preview, Neil Greenberg looks at playoff leverage for the weekend's key games, including the Dolphins trying to make the playoffs on the strength of their defense:

“Miami, meanwhile, is looking to capture its first playoff berth since 2016. And the Dolphins are doing it with a defense that saves three points per game, according to data from TruMedia. Only the aforementioned Rams, Washington Football Team and Pittsburgh Steelers have been better at limiting an opponent’s ability to score after factoring in the down, distance and field position of each play against them.”

Full article: The Washington Post

The Cardinals offense hasn't been the same since Kyler Murray's reported injury, writes Neil Greenberg in his Week 14 picks column:

“If Murray can’t extend plays with his legs, that turns a once-dynamic offense into a one-dimensional shell of its former self. From the start of the season through Week 10, Arizona scored eight points per game more than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. That figure plummeted to one point per game fewer than expected since Week 11.”

Full article: The Washington Post

The duo of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill is the best QB-WR pairing in the NFL, writes Neil Greenberg:

“…passes from Mahomes to Hill this season have netted the Chiefs 70 more points than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw, per data from TruMedia. That’s 12 more points than produced by the next-best quarterback-receiver duo, the Houston Texans’ Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller V.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Neil Greenberg likes the Saints (-3) over the Falcons, in part because of New Orleans’ success without Drew Brees:

“New Orleans has also thrived despite not having Drew Brees under center. The team is 7-0 both straight-up and against the spread without Brees since the start of last season, scoring four more points per game than expected in those contests after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each offensive play, per data from TruMedia. The Saints have an eight-game winning streak; look for them to make it nine in a row on Sunday.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Aaron Rodgers is defying the age curve, writes Neil Greenberg with the help of TruMedia’s research tool and EPA model:

“[Rodgers’] stats outshine both Brees and Brady at this age, illustrating he too could sustain a high level of play into his 40s. Plus, Rodgers is scoring 26 more points per 100 plays (passing and rushing) than expected this year after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each opportunity, per data from TruMedia. Brady scored 17 more points per 100 plays than expected in 2014 at 37 years old and Brees managed 16 more points per 100 plays at that same age.”

Full article: The Washington Post

The 2020 NFL rookie class is among the best in the past 20 years, writes Neil Greenberg for The Washington Post:

“Overall, this draft class is producing nine more points per 100 opportunities with the football (pass attempts, rushes and targets) than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. That equates to an extra 10 points per game, collectively, over a 16-game season. Only three other draft classes, 2006, 2007 and 2008, have overachieved more than the one we are seeing in 2020 at this same point in the season.”

Full article: The Washington Post

The Jets are winless this season, and Neil Greenberg tries to quantify just how bad they've been:

“New York is among the bottom three teams in points per drive, touchdown rate, yards per drive, red-zone efficiency, goal-to-go efficiency and rate of drives that go three-and-out in 2020. Its quarterbacks combine for a league-low 71.1 passer rating at a time when the league average is 95.1, the highest in NFL history. The Jets’ offensive line has allowed 126 total pressures (sacks, hits and hurries) on its quarterbacks, second only to the New York Giants. The offense is scoring almost nine points per game less than you would expect based on the down, distance and field position of each offensive play, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post