Pick-six swings Ravens-Bills

Taron Johnson's pick-six for the Bills had an EPA swing of 10.7, the sixth-largest swing of any postseason play since 2000. Mike Sando explains and runs through the top five:

Johnson’s pick-six interception off Jackson late in the third quarter was so big, it produced the sixth-largest EPA swing on a single postseason play since 2000, according to TruMedia. Here’s how that play produced a 10.7-point swing, tied for the Bills’ second-largest positive swing on any play since 2000:

The Ravens faced third-and-goal from the Buffalo 9-yard line with 58 seconds left in the third quarter. That situation is worth about 4.0 EPA to the offense, which represents the likelihood of all the potential outcomes. … Barring a turnover or especially bad sack, the offense will be in prime position to attempt a high-percentage field-goal try, at least.

Bottom line, if you’re the Ravens on Saturday night, you’re expecting to get about four points from that situation on average. … What the Ravens got, instead, was the worst possible outcome, a pick-six and a Bills PAT, converting that 4.0 EPA into a touchdown and PAT try for the Bills. That’s how 10.7 EPA changes hands in a single play.

Full article: The Athletic