Posts in In the Media
Sit Chiefs running backs vs Jags

Sitting all the Chiefs running backs may be a wise fantasy football move for Week 1, says Neil Greenberg, with the help of TruMedia’s expected-points model:

LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: We don’t know which of these three running backs will get the majority of the workload in Week 1, but we do know that all three will be going up against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that is expected to be the 11th best of 2019. Jacksonville’s defensive front stopped 22% of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage in 2018 (the league average was 19%) and allowed eight fewer points per 100 rushing plays against than you would expect after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, per TruMedia. Only the Houston Texans (9.6 points saved per 100 rushing plays) were better at preventing points on the ground last season.

Full article: The Washington Post

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Ezekiel Elliott not worth the cash?

Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected points model to suggest that Ezekiel Elliott may not be worth the huge contract the Cowboys gave him:

According to TruMedia, Dallas scored 2.2 points more than expected per 100 snaps in 2016 after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each of Elliott’s carries. That dropped to 1.1 fewer points than expected per 100 snaps in 2017, and dropped again in 2018 to 5.5 fewer points than expected per 100 snaps. The drop was even more stark on red-zone carries: 30.3 points more than expected per 100 attempts in 2016, 22.2 in 2017 and 3.9 in 2018.

Full article: The Washington Post

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Mo Salah reigns as the top PL attacker

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon writes that Liverpool’s Mo Salah is the reigning top attacker in the Premier League…

However, given the heights Salah hit the previous season, tying for the league-lead in goals+assists isn't enough to cost him the throne. While standard expected goals models just take into account the location of a shot, TruMedia has a post-shot xG model that adds or subtracts value from a shot based on where it was put on the goal frame. (Shots that miss the net get a big ol' zero.) According to this data, Salah led the league with 24.06 xG (on 22 goals), while no one else was above 20, and Aguero was down at 16.69 (on 21 goals).

Put another way: The main reason Salah didn't score more goals was that opposing keepers consistently stood on their heads when he shot the ball.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Five fantasy players to upgrade

Neil Greenberg has five players to move up your fantasy draft boards after the preseason, including Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk:

The Arizona Cardinals have a rookie head coach (Kliff Kingsbury) and a rookie quarterback (Kyler Murray, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft), so any chemistry we see on the gridiron has to be taken as a positive, even in scrimmages. Murray targeted Christian Kirk a team-high nine times this preseason, per data from TruMedia. Two of those targets were 20 or more yards downfield and one other was in the red zone, illustrating how versatile Kingsbury feels Kirk could be once the regular season starts.

Full article: The Washington Post

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Man City's dominance only grows

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon writes that Manchester City is turning into a superteam, using TruMedia’s research tool and expected-goals model:

Before last season kicked off, "a [Kevin de Bruyne] injury" was probably No. 1 on the List of Reasons Why City Won't Repeat. A KDB injury is exactly what happened; he played fewer than 1,000 minutes in 2018-19 after struggling with injuries, and yet City were basically as they good as they were the year before. In fact, according to TruMedia data, their expected-goal differential actually improved after the 100-point season. Guardiola has his third "superteam," but this time they don't have an irreplaceable superstar.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Will fantasy stars like Rafael Devers keep it up?

ESPN’s Tim Heaney uses TruMedia’s baseball product as he examines whether fantasy stars like Rafael Devers will sustain their excellence in the second half of the season.

“ …many of us thought Devers was exposed in his second year, forgetting the hyped former prospect was just 21. … But four notable improvements stand out for me. First, he’s shined when he’s made contact. Here’s his progress from the past three years, per TruMedia. HIs 2019 numbers (for exit velocity and percent of batted balls at 95+ MPH) rank third and second, respectively, in the majors.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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No. 10s are dying breeds in soccer

Mesut Ozil's Arsenal decline shows that the classic No. 10 position is dying in soccer, as ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon explains, with the help of TruMedia’s ProVision product…

“Across 35 games [in the 2015-16 Premier League season], Arsenal's Mesut Ozil created 146 total chances -- 20 more than any other player since 2010, according to TruMedia data. His 19 assists are the high-water mark in the Premier League this decade, as are the 28 Big Chances (defined by Opta as "a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score") he created. From Sept. 26 through Nov. 21, Ozil recorded an assist in seven straight games, something no Premier League player had ever done before and no one's done since. In fact, only 18 other players in the league that year even reached seven assists across the entire season.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Could Mbappe run down his contract?

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s ProVision product to contextualize the accomplishments of Kylian Mbappe at age 20, and what might happen if Mbappe runs down his contract…

“According to TruMedia data, which goes back to the 2010-11 season, Mbappe's 33 Ligue 1 goals last season were the most of any player age 20 or under in Europe's big five leagues in that time period. When they were in the same age bracket, Lionel Messi topped out at 14 goals, while Cristiano Ronaldo never got above nine.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Tyler Lockett's outrageously efficient 2018
Tyler Lockett's outrageously efficient 2018

In his article about Tyler Lockett’s stellar 2018 season, ESPN’s Seth Walder uses a TruMedia-generated arrow chart to illustrate where and how efficiently Tyler Lockett caught downfield passes last season.

“What's noticeable right away, besides how many catches (red) there are for deep passes, is that Lockett has two clear clusters of routes: down the right sideline and across the field from right to left.

But the inverse, crossing routes from left to right, are missing. That was surprising because with a right-handed scrambling quarterback like Russell Wilson, I expected plenty of improvised routes from the left to the right. Part of the reason those routes are missing is because Lockett lines up on Wilson's right 62% of the time. But the other factor is that Wilson is willing to make unconventional throws, running to the right and throwing to the left anyway…”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Is Barcelona over-reliant on Lionel Messi?

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s product to examine the numbers around Barcelona’s reliance on Lionel Messi…

“According to TruMedia data going back to 2010, Messi created a career-high 24.2% of Barcelona's chances (assists plus key passes) when he was on the field in 2017-18. Barca were even more reliant on him to put the ball on goal, as he accounted for 39.2% of their shots, his second-highest proportion since 2010. This past season, Messi upped his importance as a creator (28.3%) while maintaining a similar proportion of shots (37.9%). If you add both numbers, Messi was responsible for 63.4% of Barca's total shots in 2017-18 and 66.2% last season. This is unprecedented, as the previous high was 55.5% in 2012-13.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Carr profiled by hometown paper

TruMedia Networks’ Paul Carr was profiled in The Topeka Capital-Journal:

“A product Carr used extensively in his work with ESPN ultimately provided an opportunity to continue in sports research, but to work from the home base of his choosing. A web-engineering firm called TruMedia turns mountains of sports statistics and data into user-friendly products, to be used by both media and professional sports teams.”

Full article: The Topeka Capital-Journal

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Carli Lloyd's scoring rate remains high

Anger fuels Carli Lloyd, as she still produces goals and assists while coming off the bench…

“And she has remained productive, even as her minutes have diminished. By the time 2016 ended, Lloyd had started 176 games in 202 appearances for the US. Since the calendar flipped to 2017, she has been a substitute in 28 of 42 matches. And yet she has held steady, notching a goal or an assist every 88 minutes, according to TruMedia analyst Paul Carr. That is nearly the same level of production as Alex Morgan, the team’s designated starter in Lloyd’s striker spot.”

Full article: The Guardian

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SHOULD YOU ADD THESE RED-HOT HITTERS?

TruMedia’s site powers Tim Heaney’s ESPN.com article, looking at four hot players to consider adding to your fantasy baseball team…

“After all, [Avisail Garcia’s] top-50 average exit velocity of 91.0 mph from 2017 to '19 ranks higher than those of Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor. Similar to what Tampa Bay faced with Diaz, Garcia's launch angle wasn't clicking; in 2019, he's crept upward at 11.2 degrees, up from 9.3 and 9.0, respectively, in turn increasing his homer potential. He's also targeted the 10-to-30-degree window, which is optimal for homers, 33.1 percent of the time -- a stark improvement from 2018's 24.6 percent.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Vlad Jr.'s early stats are promising

Among the first impressions that ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle has about Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.:

“Guerrero's advanced approach also shows up in his ability to spoil pitches by fouling them off, something that was evident a couple of times over the weekend. As a 20-year-old, he's fouled off 37.1 percent of the pitches he's swung at so far, according to TruMedia, which is a tick below the big league average. The same holds true for his ability to foul off two-strike offerings.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Are .300 hitters a thing of the past?

ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle wonders if .300 hitters are a thing of the past, exploring increased pitcher velocity and advancements in hitting analysis.

“The frequency with which Pujols now faces high-power velocity hasn't done him any favors, either. Remember that figure of 196 homers he has hit with the Angels? According to TruMedia, only four of them have come against the 1,050 pitches he has seen that have registered at 96 mph or greater. “

Full article: ESPN.com

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Is Le'Veon Bell worth $52.5M?

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to suggest thats the Jets $52 million investment in Le’Veon Bell may not be the wisest use of cap space:

“…when the Pittsburgh Steelers targeted Bell out of the backfield in 2017, the team scored less than a half point more per game than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw, per data from TruMedia. On his carries, the Steelers produced 1.7 points per game less than expected.”

Full story: The Washington Post

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