Posts in In the Media
Can the Cowboys run The Bird Gantlet?

Can the Cowboys be the first team to run The Bird Gantlet in a season, by beating all five teams with bird mascots? Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s EPA model to detail why the Ravens are the biggest challenge:

“In Week 13, Dallas will visit the Ravens. The reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson, is the second choice to win it again in 2020 behind Patrick Mahomes, per the odds offered by Caesars Entertainment. This will be a tough one for Dallas, which is listed as a seven-point underdog. Baltimore scored 11 more points per game than expected on offense last year (a league high) after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play per data from TruMedia. The Ravens also saved almost five points per game on defense (fifth-best).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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NFL's toughest early-season schedules
NFL's toughest early-season schedules

The Texans, Redskins and Broncos face difficult schedules during the crucial first four weeks, writes Neil Greenberg in The Washington Post, using TruMedia’s research platform and EPA model:

“Houston’s schedule begins with a Thursday night matchup at the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, who are early 10-point favorites. … The Texans’ home opener comes in Week 2 against reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, who are five-point favorites. Houston then travels to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers, who are also five-point favorites. After that, the Texans host the Minnesota Vikings, whom they have never defeated in four meetings. That game is listed as a pick ’em.

Last season, the Chiefs scored almost eight points per game more than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, the fifth-best rate in the NFL, per TruMedia. The Ravens scored a league-leading 15 points per game more than expected. The Vikings were sixth (seven more points per game), and the Steelers ranked 17th despite using two backup quarterbacks after Ben Roethlisberger suffered a season-ending injury in the second game.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Which Teams Most Deserve a Super Bowl Win?

Which teams most deserve a Super Bowl win, based on their recent success and title drought? Neil Greenberg puts the Chargers at the top:

“The Chargers are coming off a dismal 5-11 season yet are just one year removed from a 12-win campaign, and they boast seven playoff appearances over the past 18 years, including four straight from 2006 to 2009. During that stretch they produced 408 net points more than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play (offensive and defensive), per data from TruMedia. Only the Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts (Super Bowl champion in 2006) and New England Patriots (16-0 in 2007) were better over that four-year time frame.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Are Brady and Gronk the Best Passing Duo in Recent Years?

With Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski reunited in Tampa, Neil Greenberg examines whether they’re the most productive passing duo in recent years, using TruMedia’s EPA model as a measuring stick:

From the time Gronkowski was selected in the second round of the 2010 draft to his temporary retirement after the 2018 season, no quarterback and tight end produced more excepted points added during the regular season than Brady and Gronkowski. Their production not only tops the QB-to-TE leader board, it is also 210 points more than the next-best duo of Rivers and Gates. For comparison, the difference between Brady-Gronkowski and Rivers-Gates is the same as between Rivers-Gates and the 29th-best duo on the list, Andy Dalton and Jermaine Gresham of the Cincinnati Bengals (44 expected points added).

Full article: The Washington Post

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What Does the Jalen Hurts Pick Say about Carson Wentz?

The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s EPA model to ponder what the Jalen Hurts draft pick says about how the Eagles view Carson Wentz:

Wentz has played four seasons. Let’s throw away his rookie year and focus on the last three. Here’s where he’s ranked in ESPN’s QBR and where the Eagles passing game has ranked in Expected Points Added (EPA) in games he’s played, per TruMedia.

Full article: The Athletic

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Who should be in the U.S. player pool?

ESPN’s Bill Connelly uses TruMedia’s research tool to examine who should be in the United States’ player pool for World Cup qualifying, including…Julian Green?!

-- [Green] averaged 4.2 cross attempts per 90 with a completion rate of 31%. Among the primary central midfielders in the U.S. player pool, no-one attempted more, while only Pomykal and Sebastien Lletget had a higher completion rate.

-- He turned into a very dangerous corner-taker, creating 0.9 chances per 90 from set pieces with a 40% completion rate on corner crosses. Among the primary MLS midfielders in the talent pool, Lletget's 0.48 chances per 90 ranked the highest (but still dramatically below Green's), and only Pomykal and Lletget had higher completion rates.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Unluckiest Premier League teams and players
Unluckiest Premier League teams and players

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research platform, metrics and graphics to examine which Premier League teams and players have been the unluckiest over the past decade…

Unluckiest Shooting Season, Individual: Christian Benteke, 2017-18

[Benteke’s] 17-18 Premier League season was the worst finishing season in what we'll call the expected goals era. He got on the end of chances worth 11.8 expected goals, but only three of his 60 shots ended up in the net. That's a 5% conversion percentage; league average is more than double that.

The year before, Benteke also trailed his expected goals (15 goals to 18.06 xG) but in his five combined Premier League seasons before the infamous 2017-18 campaign, he was actually slightly ahead: 66 goals on 64.35 xG. After 17-18, though, he lost his place in the Palace starting XI and his shooting boots still haven't come back: he's scored two goals on 7.33 xG over the past two years. Now, his finishing hasn't been good, but it hasn't been this bad, either.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Cam Newton among best available free agents

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s NFL research site in his article on the best remaining free agents, including Cam Newton…

“The good news is, when healthy, [Newton] drives the offense. From 2011 to 2017 he accounted for more than two-thirds of his team’s offensive touchdowns (69 percent), per data from TruMedia. That included nearly half of Carolina’s rushing touchdowns (45 percent).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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How minnows compete with soccer's elite

ESPN’s Bill Connelly uses TruMedia’s research tool to explore how relatively small clubs like Atalanta compete with the richest teams in the world…

“Atalanta ranked eighth in ball recoveries (58.3), fifth in possessions won in the middle third (28.3) and seventh in possessions won in the attacking third (5.5). Lazio averaged the seventh-fewest possessions per match at 88.3. (Granted, this was higher than either of the other main competitors in Serie A this year: Juventus was at 84.9, Inter Milan at 86.2.) They had the 12th fewest possessions with 0-2 passes, and they were 13th in average possession time.

Full article: ESPN.com

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The future of top Premier League teams

ESPN’s Bill Connelly looks at the future of the Premier Leagues “Big 6” teams, using TruMedia’s research tool and expected-goals model…

“Arsenal’s biggest concern: Do these attacking pieces actually mix? After averaging at least 0.9 xG per 90 minutes every year from 2015-16 to 2017-18, Aubameyang's average fell to 0.79 last season and 0.46 this year. Lacazette has been at 0.44 each of the past two years after four years over 0.5. They could be on the downward portion of their respective careers.

Meanwhile, Pepe is basically Trae Young in soccer form: he's over the ball a lot and constantly aims for the one big pass or glorious long strike. Since Jan. 1, his average xG per shot is a ghastly 0.09, compared with 0.28 for Nketiah, 0.26 for Lacazette or 0.19 for Martinelli. He's also taken more shots than anyone but Lacazette.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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How the Texans can replace Hopkins
How the Texans can replace Hopkins

How might the Texas replace DeAndre Hopkins’ production? Neil Greenberg has some ideas, with help from TruMedia’s research tool and expected-points model:

“…on throws from quarterback Deshaun Watson to Hopkins in 2019, the Texans scored 32 more points per 100 passes than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each throw, per data from TruMedia. On passes to Fuller that improved to 37 more points per 100 passes than expected and went even higher on throws to Stills (57 more points per 100 passes).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Projecting a Brady-less AFC East

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg looks at the AFC East without Tom Brady, finding that the Jets have work to do…

”New York, by comparison, has been quiet, with key players opting for greener pastures elsewhere. The Jets did sign offensive tackle George Fant, but much more is needed to fix an offense that scored a league-low 10 points per game fewer than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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How Mourinho has changed Tottenham
How Mourinho has changed Tottenham

ESPN’s Bill Connelly uses TruMedia’s research tool and graphics to explore how Tottenham has changed under new manager Jose Mourinho:

“Pochettino had to fight injury issues, and Spurs' roster was perhaps a bit too stagnant at times. Still, considering how assertively they had played in the Champions League this fall -- it's a small sample, of course, but they managed 1.67 points per match, 11.2 chances and 9.8 chances allowed per 90, 3.2 possessions won in the attacking third -- you could deduce that effort and intensity were at least part of the problem in league play.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Numbers point to PSG winning Champions League

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research tool to analyze previous Champions League winners and project this season’s champion…

“…using domestic-play data from TruMedia, we can look at the statistical profiles of the past nine winners, see what the minimum benchmarks have been and compare them to all 16 remaining teams in this season's competition. We'll go through a number of categories and eliminate the 2020 teams that aren't up to snuff before landing on our One True Champion.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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XFL experiments with new extra-point options

The XFL wanted to liven up (and smarten up) extra-point conversions, and it’s working, writes Neil Greenberg, with the help of TruMedia’s research tool:

“From 2015 to 2019, NFL teams converted 124 of 251 goal-to-go plays on third and fourth downs from the two-yard line — plays that mimic a two-point try, per data from TruMedia. That’s a 49 percent success rate. Teams converted 64 of 182 plays goal-to-go plays on third and fourth down from the five-yard line, a 35 percent success rate. And they went 15 for 82 from the 10-yard line, giving them an 18 percent success rate over those five seasons. Those figures suggest the two-point attempt is the most valuable option in the XFL, with the one-point attempt the least valuable of the three, generating only 0.49 expected points per try from the two-yard line.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Lewandowski one of the decade's best

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon writes on the greatness of Robert Lewandowski…

“While Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo might go down as the two best players in the history of the sport, Lewandowski really might be the best of the rest. Hell, in any other era, he might be considered the best. In domestic play since 2010, only those two have taken more shots, registered more expected goals and, well, scored more actual goals, per TruMedia data. He's the platonic ideal of the process-driven modern striker. He takes a ton of shots from great locations and therefore, he puts the ball in the back of the net again and again: 224 times since 2010-11, to be exact. With consistent, reliable production every year, it's no coincidence that his team has won the Bundesliga title in eight of his 10 full seasons in the league.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Damien Williams should have been Super Bowl MVP
Damien Williams should have been Super Bowl MVP

The Washington Post advocates for Damien Williams as Super Bowl MVP, in part because of his Expected Points Added:

“According to data from TruMedia, Williams had the highest expected points added total of the game. His performance added nine points more than expected after you consider the down, distance and field position of each of his opportunities. The entirety of those expected points added were the result of two fourth-quarter plays: his five-yard catch for a touchdown that withstood review (plus-3.4 EPA) and his 38-yard touchdown run with 1:20 left to play (plus-6.2 EPA).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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In the MediaRafe AndersonWashington Post, footballComment

A Super Bowl pick from Neil Greenberg, who highlights what the Chiefs defense has done since Week 12:

“Kansas City’s defense had its issues this season, but since the team’s bye in Week 12, opponents scored six fewer points per game than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, according to data from TruMedia. By that metric, the Chiefs had the NFL’s sixth-best defense over the season’s closing span.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Can 49ers slow down Kelce?

Neil Greenberg highlights three matchups to watch in the Super Bowl, including how the 49ers and safety Jaquiski Tartt might handle Travis Kelce…

“[Jaquiski] Tartt missed four regular season games with a rib injury, but his postseason presence is crucial for San Francisco. He’s an aggressive tackler who isn’t afraid to help stack the box against bruising running backs, but he also has enough coverage skills to match up with tight ends. Of the seven touchdowns the 49ers allowed to tight ends this season (including the playoffs), just one, Jacob Hollister’s TD in Week 10 for Seattle, came against Tartt in coverage. In games Tartt suited up this season, the 49ers allowed a passer rating of 80.7 when the opposing quarterback targeted a tight end, per data from TruMedia. That ballooned to 113.8 when Tartt was out for four games.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Eagles can improve on first possession

Sheil Kapadia has 10 suggestions for the Eagles this offseason, including improvement on their first possession of games:

“Much has been made about how the Super Bowl staff worked well together with situational football: third down, red zone, etc. And it’s true — that was a great staff. But the Eagles were actually pretty good situationally last year. They averaged 5.56 points per red-zone trip, which ranked first. And they were seventh in DVOA on third down. The one area where the Eagles could use help is with scripting the first 15 plays. They ranked 20th in Expected Points Added (EPA) on their first possessions, per TruMedia.”

Full article: The Athletic

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