Posts in In the Media
Take the Colts and their strong defense

The Colts are Sheil Kapadia’s pick to cover against the Bears this week, in part because of their strong defensive performances so far:

“The advanced metrics love the Colts’ defense. Indianapolis ranks first in defensive DVOA and TruMedia’s EPA per snap model. The DeForest Buckner trade is looking like a home run, and Xavier Rhodes had a pair of interceptions last week. But it’s been just three games against the Jaguars, Vikings and Jets. This group still has a lot to prove. “

Full article: The Athletic

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In the MediaRafe Andersonfootball, NFL, The Athletic, GamblingComment
Melvin Gordon's poor success rate

Melvin Gordon has been underwhelming this season, writes Jared Dubin in his Broncos-Jets preview for CBS:

“Gordon's averaging a paltry 4.1 yards per carry, which is actually a tick better than his career average in five seasons with the Chargers. His success rate on running plays sits at just 33.3 percent, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, tying him with Jets running back Frank Gore for 36th out of 44 qualifying players with at least 20 carries. The Broncos would be far better off featuring Phillip Lindsay, if he's able to return from injury. “

Full article: CBS Sports

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, Fantasy Football, CBSComment
Consider adding Tee Higgins as No. 3 WR

Consider Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins if you need a No. 3 wide receiver, writes Chris Towers for CBS:

“Higgins' upside isn't quite as high in my eyes -- or the path to seeing that upside come to fruition has a few more roadblocks. However, he played a significant role Sunday, coming in second on the team with nine targets and actually ranking first in snaps, per TruMedia. But it was the trust Joe Burrow showed in him near the goal line that really makes Higgins look so enticing. The 33rd overall pick in this year's draft scored from 1 and 4 yards out, scoring both of Burrow's touchdowns in the game. The problem is, Tyler Boyd saw 13 targets in a huge game of his own and A.J. Green isn't just going away either.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, Fantasy Football, CBSComment
Murray's scrambling keys Cardinals offense

Kyler Murray’s legs have been key to Arizona’s early-season success, writes Jared Dubin for CBS:

“Where Murray has done his most damage so far is actually on the ground. He ran 13 times for 91 yards and a touchdown against San Francisco, then eight times for 67 yards and two more scores against Washington. No quarterback has been able to scramble away from pressure and take off downfield more often so far this year than Murray, who has run for a gain on 35.7 percent of the plays where he was pressured, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, CBSComment
Broncos struggling to pressure passers

Chris Trapasso of CBS uses TruMedia’s research tool to point out what Derrek Tuszka could bring to the Broncos pass rush:

“While unfortunate for the players and seismically devastating to fantasy teams across this country, the rash of injuries do provide a magnificent opportunity for Practice Squad Power Rankings alumni to get that glorious elevation to the 53-man roster. And after getting blanked in Week 1, the PSPR rebounded with two call-ups in Week 2, both by the Broncos. Running back LeVante Bellamy -- who I'm calling Phillip Lindsay Lite -- and edge rusher Derrek Tuszka got The Call Saturday night.

Bellamy played one offensive snap but didn't get a carry. Tuszka wasn't used on defense but probably should've been. No Denver edge rusher outside of Bradley Chubb registered a pressure against Pittsburgh, per TruMedia. And we miss you, Von. Tuszka only played special teams and made a tackle there.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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In the MediaRafe Andersonfootball, NFL, CBSComment
Seahawks defense bends and breaks

The Seahawks defense is bending and breaking so far this season, writes Michael-Shawn Dugar for The Athletic:

“The Seahawks deem an “explosive” pass play one that surrenders 16 or more yards. They have given up a league-high 23 of those, the most any team has given up through two games since 2000, according to TruMedia. Even if you isolate the moments Seattle has led by double digits, the numbers are still concerning. When holding a lead of 10 or more points, the Seahawks have given up a league-high 12 explosive pass plays. No other team has allowed more than nine.”

Full article: The Athletic

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In the MediaRafe Andersonfootball, NFL, The AthleticComment
Jaguars offense makes them the pick

The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia takes the Jaguars to cover on Thursday, because of an offense that has been among the league’s best through two weeks…

“The Jaguars beat the Colts in Week 1 and lost to the Titans by a field goal last week. They have the fourth-best offense through two weeks, according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added model. The fear if you take the Jaguars is that Fitzpatrick starts to do Fitzpatrick things and this one turns into a shootout. But with Dolphins cornerback Byron Jones out, I like the favorites.”

Full article: The Athletic

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In the MediaRafe Andersonfootball, NFL, Gambling, The AthleticComment
Seahawks schedule makes them NFC West favorite

Could the loaded NFC West get four playoff teams? Neil Greenberg runs the numbers and has the Seahawks as division favorites, in part because of a favorable upcoming schedule:

“[Seattle’s] next three opponents, the Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings, are a combined 1-5 and feature some of the worst defenses in the league. Dallas has allowed eight more points per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play against it this season, per data from TruMedia. Minnesota has allowed almost 13 more points per game than expected and Miami is surrendering nearly 15 more points per game than expected, the second-worst mark in the NFL this season. Look for quarterback Russell Wilson, an early MVP candidate, to feast on these defenses over the next few weeks.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, Washington PostComment
Patrick Mahomes' scrambling puts Chiefs on top

The Chiefs are No. 1 in Sheil Kapadia's power rankings, thanks to Patrick Mahomes' scrambling on Sunday:

“What we learned: Patrick Mahomes can still save them with his legs. Kansas City’s offense struggled for much of the afternoon, punting on five of its first six possessions against the Chargers. But Mahomes ran for four key first downs to give the offense a boost. With the Chiefs facing a third-and-20 late in the fourth quarter, Mahomes picked up 21 yards on a scramble to help set up the game-tying field goal. According to TruMedia, only Kyler Murray (Week 1) has produced a higher single-game EPA on scrambles than Mahomes did Sunday. It wasn’t a typical Kansas City win where the offense looked unstoppable, but the Chiefs improved to 2-0.”

Full article: The Athletic

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, The AthleticComment
Minshew releasing the ball sooner

Gardner Minshew is improving, in part because he’s releasing the ball sooner this season, writes Chris Trapasso:

“Let's start with the speed at which Minshew's gotten the football out of his hands this year compared to last season. The short, quick passing game is the cornerstone of the West Coast Offense and needs to be the calling card of a passer with a limited arm like Minshew.

It's actually amazing Minshew played as well as he did as a rookie considering how long he held onto the football. He's clearly much more comfortable now that he's in Year 2, and Gruden's system must speak to him more than John DeFilippo's did.

And about that system difference -- Gruden has started the season utilizing play-action just about twice as often as DeFilippo did with Minshew a season ago (14.2% vs. 28.2%). He's completed 76.5% of his play-action passes at a hefty 9.2 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and no interceptions.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, CBSComment
Washington to cover on strength of its defense
Washington to cover on strength of its defense

In his Week 3 picks, Neil Greenberg likes Washington (+7) to cover in Cleveland on the strength of its defense:

“Defense can win games, and it should at least keep Washington in the mix when it faces Cleveland on Sunday.

Opponents are scoring more than eight fewer points per game than expected against Washington through two games, after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play against them, per data from TruMedia. By that metric, Washington has had the third-best defensive performance of 2020 thus far.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, Gambling, Washington PostComment
Josh Allen improving on the deep ball

Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports uses TruMedia’s research tool to dive into Josh Allen improvement on the deep ball this season:

“Ahh yes, the deep ball -- Allen's Achilles heel in 2019. According to TruMedia, Allen was deemed accurate on right around 31% of his passes thrown 20-plus yards down the field last season, one of the worst figures in the league among qualifying quarterbacks. It was seen by detractors as the facet of his game that would hinder his maturation and thereby limit how good the Bills could be.

In his first two games of 2020, Allen has been accurate on 77.8% of those long throws (seven of nine). And his improved ball placement at the first two levels of the field hasn't subsided. Allen's been on target on 80.5% of throws shorter than 20 yards.“

Full article: CBS Sports

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In the MediaRafe Andersonfootball, NFL, CBSComment
David Johnson is getting chances

In his fantasy review of NFL Week 2, Chris Towers was disappointed in David Johnson's performance and not his opportunities:

“One number to know: With Duke Johnson sidelined, David Johnson played 56 of 59 snaps and ran 36 routes, per PFF and TruMedia. This was a disappointing performance after his impassive Week 1, but I'm not discouraged.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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In the MediaRafe AndersonFantasy Football, football, NFL, CBSComment
Chuba Hubbard slow first half vs Tulsa

In his article on NFL draft prospects, Josh Edwards uses TruMedia’s research tool to analyze Chuba Hubbard’s game vs Tulsa:

“The Alberta, Canada native did break a 20-yard run in the second half and plunged into the end zone for a three-yard score to finish the game with 27 carries for 93 yards and one touchdown. In the first half, the running back was averaging negative yardage before contact, according to TruMedia, which illustrates that the Golden Hurricanes were getting penetration. In the second half, the yardage before contact jumped to roughly 1.65. The Cowboys eventually pulled away to win, 17-6.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, College Football, CBSComment
Add Mike Gesicki after his big week

CBS fantasy writer Chris Towers rates Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki as one of the week’s top waiver pickups:

“Mike Gesicki has been threatening to have a game like this for a while. He has a hugely valuable role in Miami's offense running downfield routes as the team's primary slot receiver, and he ran 35 routes on 45 snaps per TruMedia and PFF. He made some incredibly impressive catches Sunday, and this could have been the start of something big. I might view him as a top-six TE in Week 3 against the Jaguars.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, Fantasy Football, CBSComment
Deshaun Watson's high variance in QB play
Deshaun Watson's high variance in QB play

The Athletic’s Aaron Reiss uses TruMedia’s EPA model to calculate a variance score for quarterbacks,

“In fact, the difference between the best and worst versions of Watson is among the widest such gaps of anyone who ranked as a Tier 1 or Tier 2 QB in a 2020 poll of executives and coaches by The Athletic’s Mike Sando.

How do we know that? Based on EPA, … The Athletic averaged Watson’s three worst and three best games by his total EPA on dropbacks from 2017-19, then calculated the difference between those to come up with a ‘variance score.’”

Full article: The Athletic

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In the MediaRafe Andersonfootball, NFL, The AthleticComment
Take the Steelers against Denver's defense

Neil Greenberg suggests taking the Steelers to cover 7.5 points against the Broncos, in part because Denver’s defense struggled in Week 1…

“The Steelers’ offense, with Ben Roethlisberger back under center, is already humming along. He completed 21 of 32 passes for three touchdowns and will face a Denver defense that allowed 10 points more than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play against them in Week 1, per data from TruMedia. Only seven teams were worse in Week 1.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, Washington PostComment
Kyler Murray adds value with legs in Week 1

Kyler Murray’s legs were extremely valuable to the Cardinals, writes The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia in his article on things we learned in Week 1:

“Kyler Murray can gash really good defenses with his scrambling. There are the raw numbers. Murray ran 13 times for 91 yards in the Cardinals’ win over the 49ers. And then there are the advanced stats. No quarterback in the last five years has produced a higher single-game EPA on scrambles than Murray did Sunday, according to TruMedia. Murray had a 25-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-17 and a 22-yard touchdown run. When the offense wasn’t operating smoothly, he put the team on his back. In his second season, Murray is on the short list of most fun players to watch.”

Full article: The Athletic

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, The AthleticComment
Seahawks have Cam Newton's number
Seahawks have Cam Newton's number

Cam Newton and the Patriots face the Seahawks in Week 2, and Seattle has had Newton's number historically, writes Neil Greenberg:

“Newton has scored 12 fewer points than expected (after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play) per 100 rushing plays against Seattle’s head coach, Pete Carroll in his career, per data from TruMedia. Newton has scored 29 more points per 100 rushing plays against everyone else.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, Washington PostComment