Posts in In the Media
Rodgers is defying the age curve

Aaron Rodgers is defying the age curve, writes Neil Greenberg with the help of TruMedia’s research tool and EPA model:

“[Rodgers’] stats outshine both Brees and Brady at this age, illustrating he too could sustain a high level of play into his 40s. Plus, Rodgers is scoring 26 more points per 100 plays (passing and rushing) than expected this year after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each opportunity, per data from TruMedia. Brady scored 17 more points per 100 plays than expected in 2014 at 37 years old and Brees managed 16 more points per 100 plays at that same age.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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What's wrong with Roberto Firmino?

Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s ProVision research platform and graphics to analyze the early-season struggles of Roberto Firmino:

“Now, through nine Premier League games, Firmino has scored two goals on shots worth 3.95 xG. Last season, it was just nine goals on 13.95 xG. And the year before that, it was 12 goals on 13.55 xG. Guy can’t shoot! Well, maybe. Take the entirety of his Liverpool career, and Firmino is actually ever-so-slightly ahead of his expected pace: 59 goals on 57.25 xG. Like most players, Firmino is most likely just a roughly average finisher. Even if it didn’t seem like it on Sunday, the odds of him converting a given chance are the same as pretty much anyone else.”

Full article: No Grass in the Clouds

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How good are the Steelers?

Mike Sando uses TruMedia’s research platform and EPA model in his weekly Pick Six column, diving into how good the Steelers are:

“There’s nothing illegitimate about the Steelers even if they’ve managed to post a 5-0 record in games decided by one score. They’ve got a proven quarterback and the NFL’s top-ranked defense by several measures, including expected points added (EPA) per game. …

The table below compares the 2020 Steelers to the 15-1 and 16-0 teams since 2000 based on where each ranked in EPA on offense, defense and special teams. All had a top-five unit on offense, defense or both. Pittsburgh closes with Baltimore, Washington, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Cleveland. The Steelers will probably be favored in every one of those games.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Take Washington over the Bengals

Take Washington (-1.5) at home against the Bengals, says Neil Greenberg in his weekly picks column:

“On Sunday, Smith will get a chance to face a Cincinnati Bengals defensive unit allowing almost nine more points per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each throw by the opposing quarterback, per data from TruMedia. That should be enough to get Washington its third win of the season.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Tampa Bay's pressure should get to Goff

Tampa Bay’s pressure should bother Jared Goff on Monday, writes Jared Dubin:

“[The Rams] style of offense makes for a fascinating matchup with Todd Bowles' defense. The Bucs can bring pressure from all different angles, and they have gotten a ridiculous amount of pressure on play action dropbacks: per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, opposing passers have been pressured 51.1 percent of the time they have faked a run before looking to throw against Tampa Bay. For perspective, consider that the league average pressure rate on such throws is around 35 percent.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Panthers offense improved this season

Mike Sando uses TruMedia’s expected-points-added model throughout his column, which revisits preseason concerns for all 32 teams:

“The Panthers have exceeded expectations on offense under Joe Brady, successfully adapting to a receiver-oriented attack after losing running back Christian McCaffrey to injury. Carolina ranks 11th this season in offensive EPA per game and points per drive. That is up from 25th and 20th, respectively, through 10 games last season. The Panthers rank slightly lower in offensive points per game, partly because the team’s average starting field position has worsened considerably.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Take the Ravens despite struggling offense

Sheil Kapadia likes the Ravens (-6) over Tennessee on Sunday:

According to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, Baltimore’s offense ranks 24th through 10 weeks. If the playoffs started today, the Ravens would be the last team in the AFC to get in, and the Titans would miss out. Given how little Tennessee gets from its defense and special teams, its offense has to be nearly perfect to win. I’m not giving up on the Ravens just yet.

Full article: The Athletic

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Opponents haven't figured out Ravens

The Ravens offensive struggles are not because opponents have figured them out, writes Jared Dubin:

“A slight step backward in pass blocking has led to Jackson taking sacks more often than he did a year ago, but also being pressured considerably more often as well. Last season, Jackson was pressured on only 31.2 percent of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. This year, that figure has spiked to 37.7 percent. In turn, his scramble rate (how often he has scrambled as a percentage of pressures) has dipped from 28.5 percent to 24.1 percent, and his yards per scramble average has plummeted from 10.5 to 6.4 yards.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Paul Pogba's future at Manchester United

Laurie Whitwell uses TruMedia’s ProVision research tool and graphics to show how Paul Pogba’s role has changed during his time with Manchester United:

“Pass bins from the past four years, supplied by Opta and TruMedia Networks, show how his involvement dropped deeper from 2017 to 2019 (the larger the square in the graphics below, the more frequent his activity in that area of the pitch, while the percentage shows his pass completion rate), before readjusting somewhat this season.”

Full article: The Athletic

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2020 NFL draft class off to a great start

The 2020 NFL rookie class is among the best in the past 20 years, writes Neil Greenberg for The Washington Post:

“Overall, this draft class is producing nine more points per 100 opportunities with the football (pass attempts, rushes and targets) than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. That equates to an extra 10 points per game, collectively, over a 16-game season. Only three other draft classes, 2006, 2007 and 2008, have overachieved more than the one we are seeing in 2020 at this same point in the season.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Is this the end for Lionel Messi?

Ryan O’Hanlon appreciates Messi’s greatness and examines his decline, using ProVision’s graphics and research tool:

“Since 2008, Messi has created 167 assists -- 41 more than second-best. He has completed 331 through balls -- 126 more than second-best. He has beaten 1824 players off the dribble -- 580 more than second-best. He’s completed 9,839 passes into the attacking-third -- 1,477 more than second-best. He’s completed 1,861 passes into the penalty area -- 440 more than second-best. And he’s taken 2,996 touches in the box -- 97 more than second-best. He’s the best scorer, creator, line-breaker, dribbler, facilitator, and outlet -- all at the same time.”

Full article: No Grass in the Clouds

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Dolphins special teams great through 9 games

Mike Sando uses TruMedia’s expected-points model and research tool to find how good and consistent the Dolphins have been on special teams this season:

“The Dolphins have finished every game this season on the plus side in EPA for special teams. They are the second team over the past decade to do that in each of the first nine games in a season, joining the 2015 Patriots. Flores was an assistant with the Patriots then. New England routinely ranked high in special-teams EPA over the years, continually stressing that aspect of play under Bill Belichick, who entered the NFL as a special-teams coach.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Bears defense good despite lack of pressure

The Bears defense is one of the best in the league this season, despite a lack of pressure on the quarterback, writes Jared Dubin in his Monday Night Football preview:

“What's fascinating about the pass defense is the Bears have done it despite surprisingly generating pressure at a below-average rate (32.2 percent of opponent dropbacks, compared with a 35.1 percent league average, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia), indicating that there is still untapped upside for the unit, considering the talent Chicago has up front. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins has been among the most heavily-pressured passers in the league this season, seeing defenders in his face on 38.2 percent of his dropbacks. Cousins is just 38 of 68 for 545 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions under pressure this season, with a passer rating nearly 30 points worse than the one he's posted when throwing from a clean pocket.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Chubba Purdy good under pressure

Despite the loss to NC State on Saturday, Florida State true freshman Chubba Purdy fared well under pressure:

One stat from TruMedia (via PFF) that stood out was Purdy’s performance under pressure: Purdy was pressured on 14 drop-backs and was sacked twice. But he had 105 passing yards and both of his scores while under pressure. His NFL Passer Rating Under Pressure was 143.8, which was 6th nationally this past week.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Texans poor despite DeShaun Watson

DeShaun Watson and the Texans passing game have been good this season, though their record doesn’t reflect that so far:

According to TruMedia, the Texans’ 0.38 expected points added per pass attempt puts them ahead of any team that finished with five wins or fewer since 2000. This includes garbage time, so it’s imperfect, but it helps narrow the pool of players to evaluate Watson against. Compared to the quarterbacks who started for the other bad teams with the highest EPA/attempt averages, Watson appears to be in a league of his own.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Steelers unique offensive scheme

The Steelers are undefeated in part because of their unique and changing offensive scheme, writes Jared Dubin:

“But just because the Steelers aren't quite among the league leaders in offense, doesn't mean they're not worth taking a look at. In fact, this is one of the more interesting offenses in the league right now, in large part due to the way it's been designed.

First, the Steelers have dramatically increased their usage of pre-snap motion. They used it on only 26.6 percent of snaps from 2016 through 2019, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, compared with 42 percent of snaps this year. And with that increase in motion has come a dramatic remaking of the team's passing game.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Quantifying the Jets struggles

The Jets are winless this season, and Neil Greenberg tries to quantify just how bad they've been:

“New York is among the bottom three teams in points per drive, touchdown rate, yards per drive, red-zone efficiency, goal-to-go efficiency and rate of drives that go three-and-out in 2020. Its quarterbacks combine for a league-low 71.1 passer rating at a time when the league average is 95.1, the highest in NFL history. The Jets’ offensive line has allowed 126 total pressures (sacks, hits and hurries) on its quarterbacks, second only to the New York Giants. The offense is scoring almost nine points per game less than you would expect based on the down, distance and field position of each offensive play, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Take the Rams defense vs the Seahawks

In his weekly picks, the red-hot Sheil Kapadia (79-53-1 ATS this season!) likes the Rams (-1.5) against the Seahawks:

“Jalen Ramsey against DK Metcalf is going to be fun. The Rams enter the second half of the season ranked first in overall defense according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model — first against the pass and 11th against the run. Sean McVay is 3-1 in his last four games against the Seahawks, and the Rams have averaged 31.5 points per game in those contests. The NFC West race feels like it’s going to come down to Week 17. We could have a three-way tie for first place after a Rams victory here.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Rivers could excel vs Titans pass rush

Philip Rivers could excel against the Titans relatively weak pass rush, writes Jared Dubin:

“The good news for Rivers is that the Titans defense has a lot more in common with that of the Bengals and Lions than with the Ravens. Tennessee rarely gets pressure on opposing passers (31.9 percent of opponent dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, compared with a league average of 35.4 percent) and struggles to cover passes to almost every position.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Take the Browns over the Texans poor defense

Neil Greenberg likes the Browns (-3) to cover against a Texans defense that has struggled this season:

“Houston doesn’t tackle very well, has a below-average pass rush and a secondary that allows a league-high passer rating of 111.2 to its opponents this season. The net result is a defense that is surrendering 12 more points per game than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play against them this season, the highest in the league, per data from TruMedia.

Cleveland, by comparison, is scoring four more points per game than expected in 2020.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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