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Hurts learning to deal with pressure

Hurts learning to deal with pressure

Part of Jalen Hurts’ maturation as a quarterback will be learning to deal with pressure, writes Zach Berman:

“The Eagles allowed pressure on 36 percent of Hurts’ dropbacks in Week 16, according to TruMedia, and they lost Jordan Mailata during the game because of a concussion. Pederson said he wanted Hurts to “trust the protection overall, whether it’s a pressure look or not.” Hurts rushed nine times in that game and was sacked three times.

‘There have been a few times the last couple of weeks that he’s gotten out of there a little bit too early and something that he can learn on and build upon and kind of calm himself in the pocket as he continues to play,’ Pederson later said.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 9, 2021football, NFL, The AthleticComment

Bucs are NFC's third Super Bowl favorite

Bucs are NFC's third Super Bowl favorite

Neil Greenberg analyzes the most likely Super Bowl matchups, with the Buccaneers coming in as the third favorite to emerge from the NFC:

“[Tampa Bay’s] path to the Super Bowl is the third easiest in the conference thanks both to being good at football and a first-round game against the 7-9 Washington Football Team. The Bucs are 8½-point favorites over Washington. …

And according to data from TruMedia, Tampa Bay was nine points per game better than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play on offense and defense. Only Green Bay exceeded expectations by a greater margin (10 points per game).”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 8, 2021NFL, football, Washington PostComment

Colts don't blitz often

Colts don't blitz often

The Colts didn't blitz much during the regular season, and that looks like the right approach against Josh Allen and the Bills tomorrow, writes Sheil Kapadia:

“The Colts also blitzed at the second-lowest rate of any defense in the regular season. That’s probably the right tactic against Allen, as the Bills were third in EPA per snap against the blitz, according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus. Again, there’s no great formula for containing the Bills’ offense right now, but playing zone and trying to get to Allen with DeForest Buckner and the front four is probably the strategy that offers the best chance of success.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 8, 2021NFL, football, The AthleticComment

Liverpool's dip in form

Liverpool's dip in form

Bill Connelly examines the numbers behind Liverpool’s dip in form, using TruMedia’s ProVision research platform:

2018-19: 15.1 shots per match, 0.14 xG/shot, 17% of shots coming with 3+ defenders between the shooter and the goal, 28% with 0-1 defenders

2019-20: 15.6 shots per match, 0.13 xG/shot, 18% of shots coming with 3+ defenders between the shooter and the goal, 24% with 0-1 defenders

2020-21: 15.4 shots per match, 0.14 xG/shot, 19% of shots coming with 3+ defenders between the shooter and the goal, 17% with 0-1 defenders

Last 3 matches: 15.0 shots per match, 0.11 xG/shot, 33% of shots coming with 3+ defenders between the shooter and the goal, 13% with 0-1 defenders

Full article: ESPN

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 7, 2021soccer, espnComment

Mahomes or Rodgers for MVP?

Mahomes or Rodgers for MVP?

Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes for NFL MVP? Ben Baldwin dives into the numbers behind the debate:

“Mahomes isn’t exactly playing without help himself. And Rodgers sustained his production in the games where Adams or Bakhtiari missed time, including putting up 37 points on the Saints without Adams — the highest total scored against the Saints’ defense all season — and not missing a beat against the Bears in Week 17 without Bakhtiari. Finally, Rodgers finished No. 2 in EPA per play on non-play-action dropbacks (courtesy of PFF’s play action charting and TruMedia’s EPA model), so it’s not like play action solely boosted his efficiency. Between Rodgers and Mahomes, let’s call supporting cast a wash, which might even be generous to Mahomes’ case.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 7, 2021NFL, football, The AthleticComment

Take the Tampa Bay-Washington under

Take the Tampa Bay-Washington under

The Tampa Bay-Washington under (45.5) looks good this weekend, writes Neil Greenberg in his weekly picks column:

“One interesting angle to this matchup: Washington struggles to score points, with its offense producing three fewer points per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. In 68 first-round games played outside from 2002 to 2019, the total has gone under 50 times (74 percent). The total in this matchup is set at 45½.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 7, 2021NFL, football, Gambling, Washington PostComment

Ranking the playoff defenses

Ranking the playoff defenses

Sheil Kapadia ranks Washington fourth among the playoff defenses, after multiple dominant performances this season:

“Defense carried Washington to the postseason. Their success relied on a dominant front and a heavy dose of zone coverage. Led by Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, Washington ranked third in pass rush win rate. They were in the middle of the pack in terms of blitz frequency, but no defense was more effective (EPA per snap) when blitzing than Washington. Washington doesn’t have a lot of big names in the secondary, but they were well-coached and ranked third in efficiency when playing zone coverage. Washington ranked third in defensive DVOA and is capable of putting together dominant performances. As part of this exercise, I looked at the top-100 single-game defensive performances in 2020. Washington was responsible for eight of them, tying them with the Rams and Steelers for most in the league.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 7, 2021NFL, football, The AthleticComment

49ers special teams struggled

49ers special teams struggled

Special teams was one of the 49ers issues this season, writes David Lombardi in his by-the-numbers recap of San Francisco's season:

“The 49ers lost 52.3 expected points through special teams this season, or 3.3 points per game. A blocked punt in Week 1, fumbled kick and punt returns, a string of missed field goals in Week 16 and a generally unproductive runback game were the culprits.

A team with robust offensive and defensive EPA figures might’ve overcome a 52.3-point drain, but the 49ers were not in such a position. They managed only +10.1 EPA on offense (No. 18) and +28.3 EPA on defense (No. 5). For perspective, Green Bay added 208.1 expected points with its top-ranked offense, while the Rams added 143.8 expected points with their top-ranked defense.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 7, 2021NFL, football, The AthleticComment

Ranking NFL playoff coaches

Ranking NFL playoff coaches

Jared Dubin puts Bruce Arians into the third tier of playoff coaches, in part because of his conservative nature:

“For a coach who made his name as a "no risk-it, no biscuit" guy, Arians sure is conservative on game days. The Buccaneers went for it only 14.1 percent of the time on fourth down this season, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, the sixth-lowest rate in the league.”

Full article: CBS Sports

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 7, 2021NFL, football, CBSComment

Wilson is Seahawks MVP

Wilson is Seahawks MVP

Russell Wilson is the Seahawks MVP, even though he didn't finish the season how he started it, writes Michael-Shawn Dugar:

“Seattle’s offense sort of limped into the postseason after the Jets game in Week 14, but Wilson led the highest-scoring offense in franchise history, added three fourth-quarter comebacks to his resume and threw a franchise-record 40 passing touchdowns. Wilson didn’t finish how we all thought he would after the first half of the season, winding up 11th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (per Football Outsiders), 14th in EPA per play, 13th in total EPA on dropbacks (per TruMedia), ninth in QBR and 16th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt. Wilson put the ball in the end zone at a high rate, ranking second to Aaron Rodgers in passing touchdown percentage even after coming back down to earth in the second half of the season.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 5, 2021NFL, football, The AthleticComment

Most trustworthy playoff offense

Most trustworthy playoff offense

Sheil Kapadia ranks the best playoff offenses, slotting the Packers second behind the Chiefs:

“I looked up the 100 best single-game offensive performances during the regular season (based on EPA) to see how many each playoff team produced. The Packers had 11! No other team had more than seven. Green Bay finished first in offensive DVOA, and at the age of 37, Aaron Rodgers delivered perhaps the best season of his career. Davante Adams was un-guardable, and Aaron Jones piled up 1,459 yards from scrimmage. The Packers finished first in pass block win rate. Their offensive line is still strong, but they’ll head to the postseason without Pro Bowl left tackle David Bakhtiari. Two things stand out with the Packers. One, they were the league’s best play-action team (EPA per snap) during the regular season. And two, Matt LaFleur was the league’s best game scripter. Green Bay averaged a league-best 4.56 points on its opening possessions.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 5, 2021NFL, football, The AthleticComment

NFL coaching search guidelines

NFL coaching search guidelines

One of Sheil Kapadia’s 10 guidelines for an NFL coaching search: value flexibility and a willingness to adjust.

“The coach who has an innovative scheme today will likely be the coach who gets “figured out” in a couple years. Sean McVay was hailed as an offensive genius after the 2018 season. His offense ranks 21st in Expected Points Added (EPA) per snap this season, according to TruMedia’s model. The Rams’ offense was 17th last season. It’s not enough to be impressed with what a coach is doing in terms of X’s and O’s right now. You need to know if he has a plan B. Has he been exposed to different schemes and philosophies? If not, is he open to listening to assistants who might have more expertise in certain areas? These are important questions.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 4, 2021NFL, football, The AthleticComment

Vikings defense and special teams struggles

Vikings defense and special teams struggles

In his Pick Six column, Mike Sando looks at Kirk Cousins and other quarterbacks who could be on the move this offseason:

“Any team acquiring Cousins could slot him in at that $28 million APY, which would rank 12th in the NFL — hardly prohibitive for a player who ranked second to Deshaun Watson in EPA per pass attempt since Week 8, tossing 24 touchdown passes with three interceptions over that 10-game span.

When Minnesota signed Cousins in March 2018, it was coming off a three-year period when its offense ranked 14th in EPA while posting a 32-16 (.667) record. The Vikings have ranked 14th in offensive EPA since adding Cousins. Their record has slipped to 25-21-1 (.543) in the games Cousins started. Decline in other areas has been the key variable, with Minnesota dropping from fourth in combined EPA on defense and special teams from 2015-17 to a No. 15 ranking in that category since adding Cousins. That includes a No. 30 ranking this season.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 4, 2021NFL, football, The AthleticComment

Rangers playing long balls

Rangers playing long balls

The Athletic’s Jordan Campbell using TruMedia’s graphics and research platform to analyze Rangers tactics under Steven Gerrard:

“Understandably, Allan McGregor was growing frustrated by having to go long under pressure. On several occasions he could be heard urging the full-backs to go higher so he had an angle to clip the ball wide to them but their struggles continued until half-time.

Below is a pass map showing the destinations of McGregor’s passes. He went long with 71 per cent of them.

In the last two seasons, the only domestic game in which he has gone long more often was in the 2-1 defeat by Hearts in January last year and in a 2-0 win over Motherwell in December 2019 where the Fir Park side pressed really high.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 3, 2021soccer, The AthleticComment

Judging Jim Schwartz

Judging Jim Schwartz

The Athletic’s roundtable discusses the Eagles tenure of departed defensive coordinator Jim Schwarz:

“I think overall he did a really good job. From 2016 to 2020, the Eagles defense ranked eighth in Expected Points Added per snap, according to TruMedia’s model. It was never lower than 17th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. It’s easy to forget now, but the defense (fifth) actually ranked higher than the offense (seventh) in DVOA during the 2017 Super Bowl season.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 2, 2021NFL, football, The AthleticComment

Best of young wide receivers

Best of young wide receivers

Jared Dubin continues his series on young wide receivers, using TruMedia’s research platform to focus on the best of the best:

“The technicians and monsters have drawn the highest target rate, being thrown the ball on 21.9 percent of their routes run. They've run routes nearly as deep as the deep/burner types, but they've been much more efficient with their targets, creating first downs (45.5 percent to 39.2 percent) and explosive plays (22.9 percent to 19.5 percent) far more often as a percentage of their targets. They've also created nearly as many yards after the catch (5.06 per reception) as the slot mavens and offensive weapons, whose targets tend to come closer to the line of scrimmage and thus designed to pick up YAC. In the aggregate, this group of players has managed to be far motion efficient on a per-route basis than any other, generating 2.16 yards per route run.”

Full article: CBS Sports

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 1, 2021NFL, football, CBSComment

Take the Packers because of Rodgers

Take the Packers because of Rodgers

Neil Greenberg likes the Packers (-5.5) over the Bears, simply because of Aaron Rodgers:

“Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is making a strong case to be this season’s most valuable player. The 37-year-old has completed a career-high 70 percent of his passes for 4,059 yards and a league-leading 44 touchdowns with five interceptions. He’s been the most valuable passer of 2020, according to ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating, and his team is scoring 11 more points per game than expected on his passes after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw, according to TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonDecember 30, 2020NFL, football, Gambling, Washington PostComment

Brady's best game in 13 years

Brady's best game in 13 years

Tom Brady's Saturday performance was his best in 13 years, writes Mike Sando in his weekly Pick Six column:

“Now that Brady has better weaponry in Tampa, his numbers under pressure and otherwise resemble his numbers in New England years ago. Coaches who have watched Brady’s film closely have reported no meaningful decline. Brady operated a clinic against the Lions. He averaged 0.96 expected points added (EPA) per attempt, his best single-game figure since tossing six touchdown passes against the Dolphins in 2007, a span of 231 total Brady starts, according to TruMedia Networks.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonDecember 28, 2020NFL, football, The AthleticComment

Chiefs are getting lucky

Chiefs are getting lucky

Using TruMedia’s research platform and EPA model, Neil Greenberg posits that the Chiefs are getting lucky this season:

“The offense isn’t the problem, but it is masking one. The Chiefs are scoring 2.7 points per drive this season, the third-most behind the Green Bay Packers (3.0) and Tennessee Titans (2.8). Kansas City sustains drives, too, and is only forced to go three-and-out 21 percent of the time, the lowest rate in the league this year. Plus, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 66 percent of his passes for a league-leading 4,740 yards, 38 touchdowns and six interceptions, producing a 108.2 passer rating. He is the second-most valuable passer of 2020 per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating and the team has scored 12 more points per game than expected on his throws after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each passing play, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonDecember 28, 2020NFL, football, Washington PostComment

Keep Josh Allen in the pocket

Keep Josh Allen in the pocket

Jared Dubin previews the final Monday Night game of the season, highlighting the importance of the Patriots keeping Josh Allen in the pocket:

“The key to containing Allen will be to get pressure while also not allowing him to escape to the outside -- especially to his right. Allen has thrown for 366 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions when escaping pressure to the right side of the field, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. Going to his left, it's 160 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick. Getting into his line of vision without allowing him to roll right and load up that cannon on his arm is key to stopping the Buffalo passing attack. The Patriots have been below-average at generating pressure this year, though, per PFF and TruMedia, notching a sack, hit, or hurry on 32.8 percent of opponent dropbacks against a league average of 37.6 percent.”

Full article: CBS Sports

In the MediaRafe AndersonDecember 28, 2020NFL, football, CBSComment