In the News — TruMedia

XFL experiments with new extra-point options

The XFL wanted to liven up (and smarten up) extra-point conversions, and it’s working, writes Neil Greenberg, with the help of TruMedia’s research tool:

“From 2015 to 2019, NFL teams converted 124 of 251 goal-to-go plays on third and fourth downs from the two-yard line — plays that mimic a two-point try, per data from TruMedia. That’s a 49 percent success rate. Teams converted 64 of 182 plays goal-to-go plays on third and fourth down from the five-yard line, a 35 percent success rate. And they went 15 for 82 from the 10-yard line, giving them an 18 percent success rate over those five seasons. Those figures suggest the two-point attempt is the most valuable option in the XFL, with the one-point attempt the least valuable of the three, generating only 0.49 expected points per try from the two-yard line.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonFebruary 12, 2020football, Washington PostComment

Lewandowski one of the decade's best

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon writes on the greatness of Robert Lewandowski…

“While Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo might go down as the two best players in the history of the sport, Lewandowski really might be the best of the rest. Hell, in any other era, he might be considered the best. In domestic play since 2010, only those two have taken more shots, registered more expected goals and, well, scored more actual goals, per TruMedia data. He's the platonic ideal of the process-driven modern striker. He takes a ton of shots from great locations and therefore, he puts the ball in the back of the net again and again: 224 times since 2010-11, to be exact. With consistent, reliable production every year, it's no coincidence that his team has won the Bundesliga title in eight of his 10 full seasons in the league.”

Full article: ESPN.com

In the MediaRafe AndersonFebruary 8, 2020soccer, espnComment

Damien Williams should have been Super Bowl MVP

Damien Williams should have been Super Bowl MVP

The Washington Post advocates for Damien Williams as Super Bowl MVP, in part because of his Expected Points Added:

“According to data from TruMedia, Williams had the highest expected points added total of the game. His performance added nine points more than expected after you consider the down, distance and field position of each of his opportunities. The entirety of those expected points added were the result of two fourth-quarter plays: his five-yard catch for a touchdown that withstood review (plus-3.4 EPA) and his 38-yard touchdown run with 1:20 left to play (plus-6.2 EPA).”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonFebruary 3, 2020Washington Post, footballComment

A Super Bowl pick from Neil Greenberg, who highlights what the Chiefs defense has done since Week 12:

“Kansas City’s defense had its issues this season, but since the team’s bye in Week 12, opponents scored six fewer points per game than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, according to data from TruMedia. By that metric, the Chiefs had the NFL’s sixth-best defense over the season’s closing span.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 31, 2020football, Washington PostComment

Can 49ers slow down Kelce?

Neil Greenberg highlights three matchups to watch in the Super Bowl, including how the 49ers and safety Jaquiski Tartt might handle Travis Kelce…

“[Jaquiski] Tartt missed four regular season games with a rib injury, but his postseason presence is crucial for San Francisco. He’s an aggressive tackler who isn’t afraid to help stack the box against bruising running backs, but he also has enough coverage skills to match up with tight ends. Of the seven touchdowns the 49ers allowed to tight ends this season (including the playoffs), just one, Jacob Hollister’s TD in Week 10 for Seattle, came against Tartt in coverage. In games Tartt suited up this season, the 49ers allowed a passer rating of 80.7 when the opposing quarterback targeted a tight end, per data from TruMedia. That ballooned to 113.8 when Tartt was out for four games.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 29, 2020nfl, Washington PostComment

Eagles can improve on first possession

Sheil Kapadia has 10 suggestions for the Eagles this offseason, including improvement on their first possession of games:

“Much has been made about how the Super Bowl staff worked well together with situational football: third down, red zone, etc. And it’s true — that was a great staff. But the Eagles were actually pretty good situationally last year. They averaged 5.56 points per red-zone trip, which ranked first. And they were seventh in DVOA on third down. The one area where the Eagles could use help is with scripting the first 15 plays. They ranked 20th in Expected Points Added (EPA) on their first possessions, per TruMedia.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 28, 2020football, The AthleticComment

Super Bowl LIV prop bets

Neil Greenberg and Matt Bonesteel pick their favorite Super Bowl prop bets, including no scores in the game’s first six-and-a-half minutes:

“According to data from TruMedia, the 49ers and Chiefs scored 16 times (11 touchdowns and five field goals) in the first 6½ minutes of games during the regular season and playoffs combined, a span encompassing 48 drives. That rate implies a money line of plus-200 for the affirmative, so “no” looks like a bargain.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 27, 2020football, Washington PostComment

Analytics breakdown of the Super Bowl

In his analytical breakdown of the Super Bowl, Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s EPA model as he dives into how the Chiefs and 49ers match up in the passing and running games:

“The Chiefs have a quarterback in Mahomes who possesses elite physical tools and a mind that allows him to make pre-snap adjustments and diagnose coverages against even the most savvy defensive coordinators. The 49ers have a defense that possesses speed and talent at all three levels and can get to opposing quarterbacks with its front four. The Chiefs ranked first in the regular season in EPA per snap on passing plays. The 49ers’ defense ranked second against the pass. This is classic strength on strength.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 24, 2020football, The AthleticComment

Garoppolo may need to do more in Super Bowl

After riding their running backs through two playoff games, the 49ers may need Jimmy Garoppolo to do more in the Super Bowl, writes Neil Greenberg:

“San Francisco scored six more points per game than expected on passing plays during the regular season after factoring in the down, distance and field position of each attempt, per data from TruMedia. The 49ers scored three fewer points per game than expected on rushing plays. During the postseason, however, the 49ers have scored six more points than expected on running plays, which is unlikely to continue. Only the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles have exceeded that mark in a Super Bowl over the past 17 years.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 24, 2020football, Washington PostComment

Chiefs defense may struggle vs Henry

Chiefs defense may struggle vs Henry

Stats suggest the Chiefs defense could struggle against Derrick Henry in Sunday’s AFC title game, says Neil Greenberg in The Washington Post…

“…the Chiefs stop just 14 percent of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage, the lowest mark in the NFL during the regular season and playoffs combined, per data from TruMedia. It could be an ideal spot for Henry and the Titans.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 16, 2020nfl, Washington PostComment

Guaita is Premier League's best Spanish keeper

Guaita is Premier League's best Spanish keeper

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research tool and graphics in his article on the most underrated Premier League players this season…

“According to TruMedia data, Guaita has prevented more than seven goals so far this year. Based on their expected goals on target model, which takes into account the location of a shot and then where the shot was placed on the goal frame, you'd expect the average keeper to concede 26.08 goals. Guaita has only allowed 19 (in addition to one own goal). This is what that shot-saving profile looks like: green dots are goals, and the larger dots are higher-value xG opportunities:”

Full article: ESPN.com

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 16, 2020soccer, espnComment

Bosa key to 49ers' defensive dominance

Nick Bosa and the 49ers ability to get sacks are crucial to their defensive dominance this season, writes Neil Greenberg…

“The value of those sacks was enormous. San Francisco’s defense allowed 2.0 points per drive this season when the 49ers didn’t have a sack and only 0.5 points per drive when the team registered one sack or more, per data from TruMedia. The rate of opponents going three-and-out against them also improved from 33 to 47 percent.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 16, 2020nfl, Washington PostComment

Sherman is Packers' kryptonite

49ers corner Richard Sherman may be the Packers’ kryptonite, because Aaron Rodgers rarely throws at him, writes Neil Greenberg…

“Teams have scored four fewer points per game against San Francisco than expected on passing plays this year after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw, according to data from TruMedia. Sherman surrendered just 236 yards when targeted in coverage during the regular season and playoffs, and he was never beaten for more than 25 yards, with opponents gaining a league-low 0.4 yards per snap when targeting Sherman in coverage.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 16, 2020nfl, Washington PostComment

Titans rushing like no other team

The Titans running game is unlike any other team’s, thanks to Derrick Henry and a strong offensive line, writes Neil Greenberg:

“Tennessee Coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith have been leaning on Henry much more in the playoffs, including in unconventional situations. The Titans ran the ball 47 percent of the time during the regular season but have done so 70 percent of the time in the postseason, per data from TruMedia. They even ran the ball 60 percent of the time when they trailed the New England Patriots in the first round; the other teams have run the ball 33 percent of the time when trailing in this year’s playoffs.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 15, 2020Washington Post, nflComment

Tony Khan on Dan Le Batard Show

TruMedia owner Tony Khan was on the Dan Le Batard Show, talking TruMedia, Jaguars, Fulham, AEW and more:

Video on YouTube

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 14, 2020trumediaComment

Giants on the wrong path

Giants on the wrong path

The Giants hired head coach Joe Judge in part for his run-focused mentality. That looks like a mistake, writes Neil Greenberg:

“One reason the NFL’s best teams run the ball more is because they are often ahead, allowing them to run the ball to kill clock. NFL teams rush the ball 30 percent of the time when trailing by 10 points or more, 44 percent of the time when the score is tied and 55 percent of the time when enjoying a lead of 10 points or more, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 13, 2020nfl, Washington PostComment

Take the Chiefs vs Houston's defense

In picking the Chiefs to cover against the Texans on Sunday, Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research tool and EPA model:

“The Texans’ defense allowed 2.2 points per drive during the regular season (ranking 24th) and opponents scored a league-high 71 percent of the time against Houston inside the red zone. Houston’s opponents managed to score four more points per game than you would expect after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play in 2019, per data from TruMedia. Only four non-playoff teams (Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals) were worse.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 10, 2020Washington Post, nflComment

Kittle vs tough Vikings defense

George Kittle is the best tight end in the NFL, and he’ll match up with a Vikings defense that has been the league’s best against tight ends this season, writes Neil Greenberg:

“On Saturday, Kittle will face a Vikings defense that was stout against tight ends this season. Minnesota managed to hold opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 62.2 passer rating when they targeted tight ends in coverage, allowing just one touchdown with seven interceptions, per data from TruMedia. However, the Vikings haven’t yet faced a tight end like Kittle this season, because there isn’t one in the NFL.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 9, 2020nfl, Washington PostComment

49ers defense hasn't been great lately

The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia makes his Divisional Round picks, including how the Vikings can upset the 49ers:

“What a Vikings win looks like: For the second straight week, Zimmer cooks up a special defensive game plan that keeps the 49ers’ outside zone run schemes in check. He doubles Kittle in key passing situations, and Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter spend the afternoon in Garoppolo’s face. The 49ers’ defense, which according to TruMedia ranked just 17th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per snap in the second half of the season, looks nothing like the unit that dominated in September and October. Kirk Cousins plays with newfound confidence after last week’s win over the Saints, and the Vikings find success targeting right cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon early and often. In the locker room after the game, Zimmer swaps out his regular hat for a Shanahan-like flat-brim and yells “You like that?!” as Vikings players mob him in celebration.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 9, 2020nfl, The AthleticComment

Wilfred Ndidi is the best ball-winner in Europe

ESPN’s Ryan O'Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research tool to explore how Leicester City’s Wilfred Ndidi is the best ball-winner in Europe’s top leagues:

“Leicester average more possession than all but 13 teams across England, Italy, Spain and Germany's top flights. Part of that is because [Wilfred] Ndidi is able to keep winning them the ball back, but that also means there are fewer opportunities for him to make defensive plays. TruMedia, though, offers defensive statistics that normalise possession for every 1,000 opponent touches. Ndidi is averaging 7.33 tackles and 4.74 interceptions per 1,000 opponent touches. Both marks are top in the four aforementioned leagues.”

Full article: ESPN.com

In the MediaRafe AndersonJanuary 8, 2020soccer, espnComment