R.J. Anderson uses TruMedia’s research tool to examine Nick Anderson’s relative struggles this postseason:
“His velocity is up slightly, according to TruMedia, but the pitch is featuring less spin and rise. He seems to have compensated for that by throwing more curveballs. Anderson has tossed 73 breakers in his eight playoff outings, as compared to 83 in his 19 regular-season appearances.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreGreen Bay’s efficient offense plus Houston’s struggling defense adds up to a Packers cover (-3.5) in Houston, writes Neil Greenberg in his weekly picks column:
“The Packers are averaging three points per drive this year, the league’s third best scoring efficiency, and have tallied 11 points per game more than you’d expect based on the down, distance and field position of each offensive play, per data from TruMedia. Only the Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks are exceeding expectations by a higher margin.
The Texans, meanwhile, are allowing a league-high 13 points per game more than expected this season.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Ravens are fourth in The Athletic's weekly power rankings, and Baltimore's offense isn't clicking like last year, writes Sheil Kapadia:
“Before the season, if you would’ve told Ravens fans that they’d be 5-1 with an NFL-best plus-75 point differential going into their bye, they probably would’ve been thrilled. But as weird as it might seem, their performance has been uneven. On Sunday, the Ravens got outscored 22-6 in the fourth quarter, and the Eagles were a two-point conversion away from tying the game. Baltimore had 12 penalties for 132 yards. Offensively, the Ravens are all the way down to 23rd in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. This team is talented, well-coached and has a high ceiling. But the bottom line is they need to play much better to reach their Super Bowl aspirations.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreShould the Saints trade for J.J. Watt? That's the idea floated in The Athletic’s trade-deadline roundtable:
“Why it makes sense for New Orleans: No team has embraced the “all-in, win-now” mentality more than the Saints. They rank 26th defensively, according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. We know that the Saints had interest in Jadeveon Clowney but couldn’t land him. Watt could be a nice consolation prize. The Saints would need to employ some cap maneuverings to land him, but they are experts at kicking the can down the road. This would be a hefty price to pay considering the Vikings gave up a second and a conditional fifth for Yannick Ngakoue. But the Saints have not been afraid to be aggressive in the past.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreThe Cardinals run game remains dangerous because of Kyler Murray’s scrambling ability, writes Jared Dubin of CBS Sports:
“Despite wasting so many plays on Drake hand-offs, the Cardinals have remained one of the league's more efficient rushing teams, largely because Murray is just out of his mind on scrambles so far this year. According to Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, Murray has run for a positive gain on 28 percent of the plays where he has been pressured this season. That's the second-highest rate in the league. He's also gained an average of 11.9 yards per scramble, the league's third-best figure. “
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreThe Browns offensive breakout has been powered by a superb running game so far this season, writes Jared Dubin for CBS Sports:
“Cleveland ranks first in the NFL in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards per carry, fourth in rushing EPA per play, and fourth in overall rushing DVOA. Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rank inside the top seven in yards after contact per attempt, while Chubb ranks second and Hunt ranks fifth in rushing yards over expectation per attempt, according to NFL.com's Next Gen Stats. As a whole, Cleveland ranks fourth in the league in rush yards on zone runs, first on lead runs, third on power runs, and fourth on misdirection runs, according to PFF and TruMedia.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreFlorida State’s defensive line play was key to the Seminoles’ win over North Carolina on Saturday, writes Brendan Sonnone:
“But it’s not just the sack numbers that stand out. FSU was able to apply a steady dose of pressure on QB Sam Howell all evening, recording 20 QB Pressures (4th among all teams) on 47 drop backs. So Howell was pressured 42.5 percent of the time he dropped back to attempt a pass. The Seminoles only blitzed 34 percent of the time, so pressure was applied primarily by the defensive front. And this was reflected in the TruMedia (via PFF) Pass Rush Rate metric as the Seminoles controlled the line of scrimmage on pass rushes 60.4 percent of the time (7th nationally).”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreESPN’s Bradford Doolittle uses TruMedia’s research platform and expected wOBA model to see why the Astros could still win the ALCS:
“6. The Astros' hitters are hitting better than the Rays' hitters, and their pitchers are pitching better than the Rays' pitchers.
Yeah, it's a short sample and simple concept, but it's true. For the series, Houston has a .759 OPS against .647 for the Rays. The Astros' wOBA is .325 against an expected wOBA (based on their batted balls) of .395. Tampa Bay has a .279 wOBA and an xwOBA of .289 (per TruMedia). Better process, better results.
It goes on: Houston's hitters have 34 strikeouts and 17 walks. Tampa Bay's have 57 strikeouts and 14 walks. Houston has an 8-7 edge in homers. Both teams have had 31 at-bats with runners in scoring position and produced six hits in those spots for a .194 average. Yet the Rays have outscored the Astros 9-3 on those hits. You wouldn't light out for Vegas to bet on that trend continuing.”
Full article: ESPN
Read MoreIn his weekly picks column, The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia likes the Ravens (-7.5) and their defense in Philadelphia:
“This is not the same Ravens offense we saw a year ago. Baltimore has dropped to 21st in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. The Ravens’ defense, however, is first. Carson Wentz played his best game of the season in the Eagles’ Week 5 loss against the Steelers, but he’ll be tested by the Ravens’ blitz schemes. Baltimore blitzes at the second-highest rate of any team, and Wentz ranks 29th among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in success rate against the blitz. The Eagles probably need to steal a score on special teams or defense to produce enough points to pull off the upset. I don’t see it.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreChris Trapasso uses TruMedia’s research platform to look at how Alabama's Najee Harris may be the best running back in next year’s NFL draft:
“Harris has emphatically stated his RB1 case early in his senior season with the Crimson Tide. The boulder of a back has 347 yards on 52 attempts (6.67 yards per) with 10 rushing touchdowns in three games. Because he currently carries the fifth-highest yards before contact per rush figure (among backs with 40 or more rushes) in college football at 3.60, it'd be easy to assume Harris has been running through a parted crimson sea on every play. But there's plenty of wiggle to his game at a strapping 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreThe Ravens are the top team in The Athletic’s power rankings after a dominant defensive performance against the Bengals:
“The Ravens delivered the most dominant single-game defensive performance of the year, according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. That same model has Baltimore’s defense ranked No. 1 through five games. The offense delivered another uneven performance with Lamar Jackson averaging just 4.9 YPA. But one of the Ravens’ strengths is they can win in different ways. They’re 4-1 with an NFL-best plus-73 point differential, and it doesn’t feel like they’re close to playing their best yet.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreNeil Greenberg likes the Chiefs (-3.5) in Buffalo on Monday, in part because Kansas City’s defense has been better this season:
“…the Bills defense was allowing six more points per game than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play against them, per data from TruMedia, even before the Titans crushed them on Tuesday night. The Chiefs are allowing just three more points per game than expected this season by that metric, putting them in the top half of the league.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreBrendan Sonnone uses TruMedia’s college football research site to dig into how Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis has struggled in pass-likely situations:
“Per TruMedia (via PFF), Travis is 9 of 11 for 162 yards and a touchdown when FSU is in standard or short-yardage situations. Basically, situations where a run is likely or plausible. That gives him a Passer Rating of 235.5, which is 3rd nationally.
However, on likely passing downs or high-probability passing downs, Travis is 17 of 33 with a touchdown, two interceptions and has 264 passing yards. His 116.6 Passer Rating on passing downs is 58th nationally, well below average.”
Full article: 24/7 Sports
Read MoreESPN’s Bradford Doolittle uses TruMedia’s research tool to examine how the Braves built a great offense around Freddie Freeman:
“Freeman compiled those numbers while leading the majors in both line-drive rate (41%) and total line drives hit (72), according to TruMedia. He ranked in the 41st percentile in pull rate and in the 82nd in terms of opposite-field hitting. Despite this, teams still shifted Freeman more than two-thirds of the time. According to baseballsavant.mlb.com, Freeman posted a .424 wOBA against shifts and a .509 mark against normal alignments. You can't win, really -- the league-average wOBA was .315.”
Full article: ESPN
Read MoreJosh Allen has been great for the Bills this season, even without using his legs as much, writes Jared Dubin for CBS Sports:
“In the past, he was willing and eager to take off downfield when dodging away from pressure. He did so 24.3 percent of the time, according to Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, the third-highest rate among 38 qualified quarterbacks. This season, Allen has scrambled only 9.1 percent of the time when pressured, ranking 25th out of 33 qualifiers. “
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreThe Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s expected points added model to support his pick of the Rams (-7) over the Redskins this week:
“Los Angeles ranks fourth in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model against the pass. Washington, meanwhile, benched Dwayne Haskins in favor of Kyle Allen, a move they’ve been forecasting for months. With one of the worst pass-protecting lines in the league and one player (Terry McLaurin) to throw to, I don’t see Allen faring much better than Haskins.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreThe Braves’ Ian Anderson puts them in position to beat anybody, writes ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle, and Anderson’s changeup is a huge reason why:
“Anderson has emerged as a phenom since making his big league debut earlier this season. With his 5⅔ shutout innings against Miami on Wednesday, his career line including two postseason starts is 5-2 with a 1.43 ERA, 58 strikeouts in 44 innings and only one home run allowed. The success of Anderson's changeup is becoming the stuff of legend. According to TruMedia, Anderson has thrown 234 changeups, against which opponents are hitting .079 with a .111 slugging percentage. Good luck with that, hitters.”
Full article: ESPN
Read MoreThe Buccaneers pass rush should give Nick Foles fits in Chicago, and that's bad news for the Bears, writes Jared Dubin:
“Every quarterback struggles under pressure, but Nick Foles struggles more than most. He has a 68.7 passer rating when under pressure over the last four seasons, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, and he has the second-lowest scramble rate among the 58 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 200 passes during that span. His passing EPA per play on those dropbacks is right on par with that of Mitchell Trubisky, which any Bears fan will tell you, is not good. Toss in the Bears losing pass-catching running back Tarik Cohen -- a valuable release valve for the quarterback when under pressure -- for the season and it's not a great matchup for the Chicago offense.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreTake the Colts (-2) and their defense to cover in Cleveland this week, says Neil Greenberg in his weekly picks column:
“The Colts aren’t getting the respect they deserve. … Indy’s defense is also saving almost eight points per game when you account for the down, distance and field position of each play this season, the best mark in the NFL through four weeks, per data from TruMedia.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read More
