Are Giants better without Barkley?
Are Giants better without Barkley?

Is the Giants rushing attack better without Saquon Barkley? The Athletic’s NFL writers discuss in their Truth or Myth series:

“Over the past three years, the Giants have played 31 games with Barkley and 13 without him. We are dealing with a relatively small sample, but it’s still fun to see what the numbers suggest. The first thing we can look at is TruMedia’s expected points added (EPA) model for Giants run plays. With Barkley, they have averaged minus-2.56 EPA per 100 snaps. For context, that would rank 19th this season. In games without Barkley, they are at minus-3.26, which would rank 23rd. They’ve been better with Barkley, but it’s not like he’s taken them from terrible to great. Their run game has been mediocre to below average with or without him.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Jared Goff bad vs pressure
Jared Goff bad vs pressure

Jared Dubin points out Jared Goff’s struggles against pressure, in this Thursday Night Football preview:

“Goff is not an anticipation thrower. More often than not he needs to see the man pop open before getting rid of the ball. So, making him work quickly on plays not necessarily designed to get the ball out that quickly is always a pretty good strategy. Getting pressure on him at all is always the best way to muck up any hope of the Rams' success. Of the 45 quarterbacks with at least 500 dropbacks since 2016, Goff's 60.8 passer rating under pressure ranks 35th, per PFF and Tru Media.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Should Golladay get paid?
Should Golladay get paid?

Should Kenny Golladay be paid like a top-10 wide receiver? The Athletic debates that in their Truth or Myth series:

“The numbers (granted, it’s a small sample) suggest Stafford has missed Golladay when he’s been injured. Per TruMedia, the Lions’ passing game has produced 15.36 expected points added (EPA) per 100 snaps in 28 games with Stafford and Golladay and 10.46 in seven games with Stafford but without Golladay. For context, that’s like going from the sixth-best passing offense to the 13th-best passing offense.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Steelers offense is average
Steelers offense is average

The Steelers drop to No. 2 in Sheil Kapadia’s power rankings this week, largely because of an average offense:

“Pittsburgh dropped its first game to Washington Monday and has not looked sharp the last two weeks. But if the season ended today, the Steelers would still be the top seed in the AFC. They’ve got a big one against the Bills Sunday night. Offensively, Pittsburgh ranks 16th overall, according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. The Steelers have scored a total of 36 points in their last two games. This is still a very good team that can compete for a Super Bowl, but Pittsburgh needs to be better offensively.”

Full article: The Athletic

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How responsible is Watson for his sacks?
How responsible is Watson for his sacks?

How responsible is DeShaun Watson for his sacks? The Athletic’s NFL writers discuss:

“Watson is a magician who can make amazing things happen when he holds onto the ball. He has 540 passing yards this season on plays in which he held the ball for at least four seconds; that ranks second to only Russell Wilson. Watson averages 10.2 yards per attempt on those plays, good for fifth. He’s thrown for six touchdowns to rank second. And he’s produced a success rate of 50.9 percent, leaving him fifth. And then there’s Watson’s scrambling. According to TruMedia, the Texans rank second in EPA on scrambles.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Son Heung-Min is the world's best finisher
Son Heung-Min is the world's best finisher

Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s ProVision research platform and graphics to look at how well Son Heung-Min has been finishing for Tottenham this season:

“If we look at goals above average per shot, then Sancho is atop the list along with, strangely, Inter Milan center back Stefan de Vrij, at 0.08 goals above average per shot. Plotting both stats on the same graphs paints Son in an even better light, too. He’s circled in red.”

Full article: No Grass in the Clouds

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Najee Harris converting third downs
Najee Harris converting third downs

Josh Edwards has Najee Harris near of the top of his running backs for the 2021 draft:

“With the exception of an early season meeting against Texas A&M, Harris has at least been on the doorstep of 100+ rushing yards each game. The California native has at least two receptions in every game except one and has 20 touchdowns in nine games this season. … Harris has converted 81.3% of his third down runs, according to TruMedia. When the updated CBS Sports draft rankings are posted, one would expect the Crimson Tide running back to be one of the first running backs listed.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Chargers special teams issues
Chargers special teams issues

Mike Sando uses TruMedia’s research tool and EPA model to quantify how bad the Chargers defense was against the Patriots:

“The Chargers entered Sunday ranked 32nd in special-teams expected points added (EPA) for the season, which is familiar territory for them. They got worse. Much worse. Their performance against the Patriots produced minus-23.8 EPA, the worst in 11,026 single-game team performances since 2000, counting playoffs, according to TruMedia’s EPA model. The Chargers allowed a 70-yard punt return for a touchdown and another return for 61 yards. They had a field goal try blocked and returned for a touchdown. They missed an attempt from 46 yards.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Freddie Freeman crushes fastballs
Freddie Freeman crushes fastballs

Neil Greenberg looks at MLB's next three free agent classes, including what Freddie Freeman did so well in 2020:

“Freeman is a powerful left-handed hitter who sprays the ball all over the field and destroys fastballs. The reigning NL MVP batted .341 with 13 home runs and 53 RBI while playing all 60 games in this year’s shortened season. The 31-year-old also hit a major league high .431 against fastballs in 2020 with 28 extra-base hits in 123 at-bats, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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NFL's top young wide receivers
NFL's top young wide receivers

Jared Dubin looks at the NFL’s top young wide receivers, breaking them down by their primary uses:

“The speed demons and deep threats on the list above also have an average route-break depth of 9.11 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, per PFF and Tru Media. Contrast that figure with, say, that of the slot mavens offensive weapons, whose average route has broken just 4.58 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and it's easy to see why one type of player is targeted significantly less often (our slot mavens and offensive weapons have been targeted on 20.9 percent of their routes so far this season).

Full article: CBS Sports

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What's wrong with Aubameyang?
What's wrong with Aubameyang?

Matt Furniss uses ProVision research tools and heat maps to look at Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s struggles this season:

“As shown in the images above, it’s very clear how much of a positional shift the 31-year-old has encountered between his spell at Arsenal under Emery compared to that under fellow Spaniard Arteta.

Arteta recently told The Times, ‘Auba is scoring a lot of goals coming from that position; he has done that a lot in his career. We know he can play as a number nine. At the moment the team is a little bit better like this.’”

Full article: Stats Perform

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Mahomes and Hill the top NFL duo
Mahomes and Hill the top NFL duo

The duo of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill is the best QB-WR pairing in the NFL, writes Neil Greenberg:

“…passes from Mahomes to Hill this season have netted the Chiefs 70 more points than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw, per data from TruMedia. That’s 12 more points than produced by the next-best quarterback-receiver duo, the Houston Texans’ Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller V.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Packers great on opening drives
Packers great on opening drives

The Packers are third in The Athletic’s NFL power rankings, in part because of their success on opening drives:

“…the Packers rank second in offensive efficiency, and LaFleur has helped get an MVP-caliber performance out of Rodgers at the age of 37. There are other areas where LaFleur deserves credit: One, his game scripts have been fantastic. The Packers lead the NFL in Expected Points Added (EPA) on opening possessions, according to TruMedia.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Take the Brees-less Saints over the Falcons
Take the Brees-less Saints over the Falcons

Neil Greenberg likes the Saints (-3) over the Falcons, in part because of New Orleans’ success without Drew Brees:

“New Orleans has also thrived despite not having Drew Brees under center. The team is 7-0 both straight-up and against the spread without Brees since the start of last season, scoring four more points per game than expected in those contests after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each offensive play, per data from TruMedia. The Saints have an eight-game winning streak; look for them to make it nine in a row on Sunday.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Derrick Henry needs more receptions
Derrick Henry needs more receptions

Titans coach Mike Vrabel says Derrick Henry needs to be more involved as a pass-catcher, and Jared Dubin writes that the data backs up that idea:

“The thing is, though, Henry is actually a pretty efficient pass-catcher. Consider this: among the 63 running backs with at least 50 receptions over the past four seasons, Henry ranks seventh in yards per reception (9.2) despite having an average route-break 1.4 yards behind the line of scrimmage, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. Henry also ranks third among that same group of players in yards after catch per reception (9.9).”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Americans set record in UEFA Champions League
Americans set record in UEFA Champions League

Steven Goff cites TruMedia research in his recap of Americans playing in UEFA Champions League:

“Seven appearances in one block of Champions League games is a U.S. record. Americans have made 24 Champions League appearances this fall, also a record, according to TruMedia’s Paul Carr. The previous high was 22 over the entire 2004-05 competition.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Arthur Smith and Titans offense are excelling
Arthur Smith and Titans offense are excelling

Sheil Kapadia cites TruMedia’s EPA model in highlighting Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith as a coach with much to gain during the final stretch of the season…

“He’s your favorite football hipster’s favorite offensive coordinator — and for good reason. After last season’s impressive performance, the Titans’ offense is even better in 2020, ranking second behind only the Chiefs in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. Tennessee leans on a heavy dose of Derrick Henry, play-action with Ryan Tannehill and yards after the catch with A.J. Brown. Yes, Smith has talent at his disposal, but he’s done a brilliant job of maximizing that talent, putting players in position to succeed and consistently scheming explosive plays. With a strong finish (and he might not even need that), Smith could be interviewing for head-coaching jobs with owners looking for the NFL’s next great offensive play caller.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Kyle Trask throws all the routes
Kyle Trask throws all the routes

Josh Edwards uses TruMedia’s research platform in analyzing quarterbacks for the 2021 NFL Draft…

“Nearly one-quarter of Trask's pass attempts have been on Go routes this season and he has performed well above average on those plays, according to TruMedia. In fact, the quarterback has been average or above average on every route with the exception of intermediate and deep throws to the boundary.

Some projections have included Trask in the first round. With limited mobility, it is difficult envisioning a scenario where he is taken earlier than late Day 1.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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How bad was the Raiders offense?
How bad was the Raiders offense?

Mike Sando uses TruMedia’s research site and EPA model to contextualize how terrible the Raiders offense was against the Falcons:

“The Raiders lost 43-6 to the Atlanta Falcons and their maligned defense actually wasn’t bad. The offense was worse than bad. In stacking every offensive performance by every team in regular-season and playoff game since 2000, this abomination by the Raiders ranked 10,991st out of 10,998, according to the EPA model developed by TruMedia Networks. With five turnovers, the Raiders’ offense cost the team 38.8 EPA in a single game. The seven worse offensive performances since 2000 featured Koy Detmer, Mark Sanchez and Anthony Wright among the starting QBs.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Cardinals thankful for Kyler Murray
Cardinals thankful for Kyler Murray

The Cardinals should be thankful for Kyler Murray’s scrambling ability, says Sheil Kapadia:

“Be thankful for: How Kyler Murray scoots through opposing defenses. The quick, choppy steps. The wiggle. The acceleration. According to TruMedia, no team has benefited more from quarterback scrambles in 2020 than the Cardinals, and Arizona is fifth in rushing DVOA. The Cardinals are coming off of a loss to the Seahawks, but they are 6-4, and if the season ended today they’d be the seventh seed.”

Full article: The Athletic

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