With Dak Prescott returning to Dallas, Jake Ciely breaks down what it means for the fantasy football value of Prescott and other Cowboys:
“If you go super deep with TruMedia metrics, particularly EPA (Expected Points Added — the difference between expected points at the start of a play and its end), the differences are a stark contrast.
PassEPA/Snap: 12.4 vs. -2.0
RushEPA/Snap: 0.7 vs. -4.7
EPA/Snap: 13.0 vs. -7.5”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreMichael-Shawn Dugar outlines three paths for the Seahawks to have a successful offseason, including the signing of Carl Lawson:
“Defensive end is still a need so Seattle goes after another former Bengal and replaces Dunlap with former teammate Carl Lawson, who turns 26 this summer and has been consistently effective rushing the passer. His 99 QB pressures the last two seasons rank 20th league-wide and his 14.7 pressure percentage across that same span ranks 24th, per TruMedia, one spot above Kanas City’s Chris Jones. Lawson is coming off a year in which he ranked sixth in total QB pressures. Seattle signs him to a four-year, $48 million contract with a $16 million signing bonus and an estimated $10 million cap hit.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreWhat players will the Eagles target in free agency? Sheil Kapadia, Bo Wulf and Zach Berman have some ideas:
Kapadia: Malcolm Brown
“This is another area where I wouldn’t spend. You can find a complement to Miles Sanders in the draft or sign someone in August. But for the purposes of this exercise, I’ll go with Brown. He’s a physical inside runner and ranked seventh in TruMedia’s success rate metric last season. Brown produced a career-high 581 yards from scrimmage with the Rams in 2020.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreWith their tight salary-cap situation, whom might the 49ers pursue in free agency? David Lombardi looks at their options, including edge rusher Carl Lawson:
“It’s been assumed that, if the 49ers spend top dollar on re-signing Williams, they’ll have to acquire a bookend for Nick Bosa through the NFL Draft. But given an extra $10 million, the 49ers might change gears and look seriously into signing a player like the 25-year-old Lawson, who’s been very productive for Cincinnati.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreMike Goodman uses TruMedia’s ProVision research platform to dissect how Cristiano Ronaldo is having his best Juventus season yet:
“The percentage of headers Ronaldo is taking has declined precipitously. His first two seasons at Juventus 15.8% and 15.9% of his shots were headers. It's only at 11.1% this season. The last time he took this few headers as a percentage of his total shots was 2012-13 with Real Madrid. And yet despite that shift, defenders have not been able to keep him from getting good shots with his feet. He hasn't been forced to take more shots outside the box, he still takes 51% of shots with his feet inside the box, in line with 50.6% last season and 51.7% the season before. In fact, the average distance of shots with his feet hasn't changed hardly at all. It's 18.7 yards this season, down from 19.2 last season and 18.8 the season before.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreWith the Seahawks releasing defensive end Carlos Dunlap, they’re putting themselves in a risky spot, writes Michael-Shawn Dugar:
“Extension talks clearly stalled and now Dunlap, after a season in which he transformed Seattle’s pass rush, will get to see if another team places a greater value on his services.
This is a risk for Seattle because Dunlap was Seattle’s best defensive lineman in 2020. He led the position group in pressure percentage (12.6), according to TruMedia, and finished second in sacks and fourth in total pressures despite playing just eight games.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreBen Baldwin goes deep into the numbers to figure out what happened to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense in the second half of the 2020 season:
“Here is another place we can bring data to bear, thanks to PFF coverage labels provided by TruMedia. Let’s take a look at the percentage of early downs where opponents played a coverage that uses two high safeties, as charted by PFF:
If we compare the dots in each week (how a defense usually plays on the back end) to the logos (how they played against the Seahawks), we indeed see that as Carroll noted, teams played more two-high looks against the Seahawks than they did in their other games, with the major exceptions being the Eagles and Jets, which were both comfortable wins for the Seahawks. Of the three big outliers in the chart who played more two-high than usual — the Cowboys, Vikings, and Giants — the Seattle offense struggled in two of those three games (the latter two).”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreHow do the Texans replace J.J. Watt and improve a defense that struggled last season? Aaron Reiss looks at Houston's options:
“Not only did Watt lead the team in sacks (5.0) and QB hits (17), he also had 14 TFLs, which doubled the next-closest Texans defender, inside linebacker Zach Cunningham. The 2020 Texans had the fourth-worst defense since 2000, according to TruMedia’s EPA per play data. They might be even worse in 2021, but they won’t simply be a Watt-less version of last season’s unit. There should be a lot of turnover on this portion of the roster.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreMax Olson uses TruMedia’s research platform to examine stop rates and the best defenses at getting off the field during this past college football season:
“Every defense in college football has the same goal on every drive: Get a stop and get off the field. It’s the most basic measurement of whether a defense is successful. We call this simple measure of success stop rate: the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. This metric helps offer a more accurate reflection of a defense’s effectiveness in today’s faster-tempo game. … All stop rate and drive data are courtesy of TruMedia and Pro Football Focus.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreMike Sando examines Dak Prescott’s contract situation, including how Prescott compares to other quarterbacks in the 2016 draft class:
“Of the 15 quarterbacks drafted in 2016, Prescott … ranks first among them in EPA per pass attempt. He leads his draft class in total touchdowns (106 passing, 24 rushing), yards per attempt (7.7), winning percentage (.597, counting playoffs) and passer rating (97.2).
Yet, even if Prescott has outproduced 2016 first-round picks Goff and Wentz, he was not evaluated as a first-round talent entering the NFL, which could affect how some teams see him today.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreWhy do teams continue to play the ball out of the back? ESPN’s Bill Connelly uses TruMedia’s ProVision platform to examine the numbers:
“Playing out from the back is why teams press
Let's begin exploring this by laying out some basic data:
- On average, teams in Europe's Big 5 leagues this season average 94.8 possessions per match and begin 7.5% of them, about 7.1 per game, in the attacking third. They score about once every 32 times on these, or about 0.03 goals per possession. If they start a possession here because of a ball recovery, defensive action, dispossession or take-on, the odds increase to 0.04 goals per possession, or one in 23.
- Teams start 38.8% of their possessions, 36.8 per game, in the middle third and score once every 61 times, or about 0.02 goals per possession.
- Teams start 53.7% of their possessions, 50.9 per game, in their defending third and score once every 89 times, or 0.01 goals per possession.”
Full article: ESPN
Read MoreThe Athletic’s Sam Stejskal uses TruMedia’s ProVision graphics to break down the United States midfield options for Olympic qualifying:
“As shown in the below charts, which track the percentage of each player’s touches in the 2020 season based on location, Tessmann and Williamson don’t play as much in the final third as Mihailovic, who, though not as defensively inclined, is also capable of playing on the wing. Kreis confirmed that he primarily thinks of all three players as No. 8s.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreMike Sando compares Carson Wentz’s numbers to those of his Colts predecessors, Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers:
“Wentz’s drop in production during his final games in Philadelphia shows up on the chart below, which shows cumulative team expected points added (EPA) by passing for Wentz, Luck and Rivers over each quarterback’s most recent 69 starts, using TruMedia’s EPA model. The 69-start cutoff allows for comparing Wentz’s entire career against equal time frames for other recent Colts quarterbacks. …
Rivers’ pass offenses: 5.8 EPA per game. That would rank inside the top 10 for the 32 teams over the past five seasons.
Luck’s pass offenses: 4.5 EPA per game, which would rank just outside the top 10 over the past five seasons.
Wentz’s pass offenses: 2.0 EPA per game, which would rank just outside the top 20.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreMichael-Shawn Dugar predicts which Seahawks free agents will stay and go, using TruMedia’s research platform for context:
“Benson Mayowa ranked second on the team in quarterback pressures with 34, according to TruMedia, tying strong safety Jamal Adams (defensive tackle Jarran Reed had 38). Only Carlos Dunlap had a higher pressure percentage among Seattle’s defensive linemen. Considering Mayowa’s price point, producing six sacks and a nearly identical pressure rate as Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young is a solid season. Other teams could be interested in his services but a number of potential cap casualties at his position could hurt his market; there are going to be some very young, talented pass rushers on the street this offseason regardless of what the salary cap ends up being next month.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreSheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s research platform and success-rate metric throughout his rankings of the NFL’s top free-agent running backs:
“If there’s one back in this class who can expect to get a big payday, it’s (Aaron) Jones. With 3,017 yards from scrimmage since the start of 2019 (ranking fifth league-wide among running backs), Jones has been one of the best all-around backs in recent years. He ranked 16th out of 55 qualifying backs in RPOE and 14th in success rate last season. Jones’ 829 receiving yards over the past two seasons rank sixth among all backs, and his 51 runs of 10-plus yards are tied for sixth.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreWhat does Jordan Morris's injury mean for the USMNT, Sounders, Swansea and Morris himself? The Athletic uses TruMedia’s ProVision platform and graphics to dive in:
“Morris was most effective on the left wing for the Sounders, but that’s a spot locked down on the U.S. team by Chelsea’s Christian Pulisic. It was not clear if U.S. coach Gregg Berhalter saw Morris as a legitimate option to start on the right wing opposite Pulisic, or if he looked at Morris as a super-sub who could enter the game to add pace up top and threaten with runs in behind. Morris definitely spent time on the right wing for the U.S. under Berhalter, and he was certainly one of the more proven options to start in that spot, if needed. Pulisic’s injury history also means that Morris was solid cover for that left winger position should the attacker be unavailable for games.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreTruMedia’s Paul Carr makes his picks for the UEFA Champions League round of 16 first legs:
“Bayern Munich comes in on a relative skid, winless in two straight league games after drawing Arminia Bielefeld on the 15th and losing 2-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. However, Bayern outshot each opponent by over double digits, with 1.4 more expected goals than Arminia and 0.6 more than Eintracht.
Before those two stumbles, Bayern had won seven straight games in all competitions, outscoring opponents 15-2 with a similar edge in expected goals (16.5 to 6.4). Don't be worried about last week's results. Take advantage of the favorable shift in Bayern's odds (which were -170 before the weekend) and stick with the defending champion in this one.
Pick: Bayern win (-150)”
Full article: ESPN
Read MoreOn his list of potential NFL free agents, Sheil Kapadia ranks Dak Prescott first, with stats to support his claim:
“Prescott has completed 66 percent of his passes, averaged 7.7 yards per attempt (YPA) and thrown 106 touchdown passes with 40 interceptions in his career. If we want to go to advanced stats, he’s averaged 0.14 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play over the last three years, according to TruMedia’s model. That ranks ninth out of 44 quarterbacks.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreIn his Super Bowl betting guide, Sheil Kapadia cites TruMedia’s EPA model as one of many reasons to like the Chiefs:
“The appeal of taking the Chiefs here is pretty cut and dry. They have the best football player on the planet in Patrick Mahomes, and they call games in a way that keeps the ball in Mahomes’ hands and lets him show why he’s special. According to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, the Chiefs’ offensive performance in the AFC Championship game was their best of the season. If you look at Kansas City’s three best offensive performances of the last two years, they all came in the playoffs.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreJared Dubin uses TruMedia’s PFF-integrated research platform to analyze how the Buccaneers struggled to defend the Chiefs pass game in Week 12:
“The answers were there for Mahomes all game, and not just when targeting Hill. Take a look at Tampa's coverage breakdown, and how Mahomes performed against each of them, courtesy of Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. …
The single-high safety looks got torched by Hill early in the game, so the Bucs changed things up a bit in the second half, which you can see by taking a look at the coverage breakdowns before and after halftime. …
The more passive strategy the Bucs used in the second half wasn't limited to their coverages. They also blitzed far less often after the break. Mahomes lit up their blitzes by going 5 of 8 for 86 yards and a touchdown in the first half, so Todd Bowles only sent one blitz in the second half. It didn't much matter.”
Full article: CBS Sports
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