Posts in In the Media
Patriots secondary for MVP

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research tool and expected-points model to suggest that the Patriots secondary should be the league MVP…

“The Patriots have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 143 of 273 attempts (52 percent) for 1,190 yards, two touchdowns and 19 interceptions, earning those foes a 40.6 passer rating against, per data from TruMedia. For context, an incomplete pass earns a quarterback a 39.6 passer rating. Since 2002, the first year the league expanded to 32 teams, only the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers held opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating lower than 50 percent during the first eight weeks of the season, but that year the league average passer rating was 80.4, compared to an average passer rating of 92.0 in 2019. …

Plus, according to data from TruMedia, the Patriots are holding opponents to 36.3 fewer points than expected per 100 passing plays, after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each throw against them. That’s the best rate since 2002 and nearly 16 points per 100 snaps better than the next-best pass defense, the 2019 San Francisco 49ers.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Pick Neal Maupay this weekend

ESPN’s Kieran Darcy uses TruMedia’s expected-goals model in support of choosing Neal Maupay for his fantasy team this week…

“This week, (Brighton’s Neal) Maupay will be at home against Norwich, who have conceded the second-most goals in the Premier League so far (24) and have the worst defensive record in the league in terms of xG (expected goals) conceded (according to TruMedia's model) at 23.57. Maupay will be my Tier 2 forward this week.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Sit Kyler Murray vs 49ers defense

The Washington Post uses TruMedia’s research tool to suggest putting Kyler Murray on your fantasy bench this week, as Murray faces a tough 49ers defense…

“San Francisco’s … top-ranked pass rush should give Murray fits in the pocket. And that’s terrible news for the Cardinals, as Arizona’s points per drive drop from 2.3 to 0.8 on drives featuring at least one sack of Murray this season, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Beware Leicester City in fantasy

ESPN’s Kieran Darcy uses TruMedia’s expected-goals model to temper fantasy expectations for Leicester City after the Foxes’ 9-0 win at Southampton on Friday…

“However, eight of those nine goals were scored after Southampton's Ryan Bertrand was sent off with a red card in the 12th minute. Leicester City's xG (expected goals) total, according to TruMedia's model, was only 4.90. While that's very high for a single game, it's still well below the total the team actually produced.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Cristiano Ronaldo's free kick struggles

ESPN uses TruMedia’s research tool to emphasize Cristiano Ronaldo’s struggles on free kicks…

“According to TruMedia, Ronaldo has taken 29 free kicks for Juventus since he joined the club before the start of last season and failed to score with any of them. Seven were saved, two missed the target and a remarkable 18 went straight into the wall, with two making it past the wall after deflecting off it.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Avoid Ederson and Man City defense

ESPN’s Kieran Darcy uses TruMedia’s expected-goals model to recommend avoiding Manchester City’s defense against Aston Villa this weekend…

“I won't be going with Ederson as my goalkeeper, despite Man City being such heavy favorites. Aston Villa has scored 15 goals in nine games and only four teams have scored more. The underlying numbers back that up. Villa sits fourth in xG (expected goals) according to TruMedia's model at 16.59, behind only Man City (29.78), Chelsea (19.41) and Liverpool (19.17). Plus, Man City has been shakier at the back than usual so far this season, already conceding nine goals. The team is only fifth-best in the league in xG conceded at 11.29.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Bench Marlon Mack vs Broncos

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model as he emphasizes reasons to leave Marlon Mack on your fantasy bench…

“Marlon Mack has been inconsistent this year — he’s scored two touchdowns in the first three games but none since — and he doesn’t figure to get back on track against the top-rated Denver run defense.

The Broncos’ rush defense allows opposing backs to run for a successful play (positive expected points added) 33 percent of the time, per data from TruMedia, with a third-down conversion rate allowed that is significantly below average (39 percent for Denver compared to league average of 49 percent).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Expected goals guide fantasy decisions

TruMedia’s expected-goals model helps guide fantasy decisions in these ESPN.com articles:

Premier League: “Raheem Sterling will be my Tier 1 midfielder. Sterling is tied for fourth in the league with six goals. He's also tied for fourth in shots with 25 and ranks second in the league in xG (expected goals) according to TruMedia's model at 4.98, behind only Aguero (6.82).”

La Liga: “Another exciting team so far this season has been Sevilla, who are currently in sixth place. They're coming off a 4-0 loss at Barcelona, as mentioned above, but don't let that scoreline fool you. Sevilla actually outshot Barca 16-15 in that game, and topped them in terms of TruMedia's xG (expected goals) model 3.07 - 2.30.”

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Bench Peterson against 49ers

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg recommends benching Adrian Peterson on your fantasy team, as the Redskins face the heavily-favored 49ers on Sunday:

“When Peterson was a member of the Minnesota Vikings from 2007 to 2016, the team ran the ball 53% of the time when tied or leading their opponent, per data from TruMedia. That dropped to 36% of the time when trailing. Washington has run the ball 51% and 33% in those situations, respectively, during Peterson’s two-year tenure with the club.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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ESPN's mid-season All-America team

Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard of was picked for ESPN's mid-season All-America team by Chris Low and Mark Schlabach, with the help of TruMedia's research platform:

“It took FBS coaches a while to learn about Hubbard, but now they know all about the world-class sprinter from Alberta, Canada. He leads the FBS in rushing yards (1,094), carries (162) and rushing yards per game (182.3) and is second in rushing touchdowns (13). He's on pace to finish the season with 2,188 rushing yards, which would set a Big 12 record (OSU was in the Big Eight when Barry Sanders ran for 2,628 yards in 11 games in 1988) and would be the eighth-highest total in FBS history. According to TruMedia Networks, Hubbard has 594 yards before contact and 500 yards after contact, both No. 1 among FBS players.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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49ers winning with great defense

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research tool and expected-points model to discover how good the 49ers defense has been this season:

“No team is forcing opponents to go three-and-out more often than San Francisco (48%). That, in turn, has given opponents less than 25 minutes of possession on average, the second-best mark in the NFL. Perhaps most impressively, San Francisco’s defense is allowing 33 points fewer per 100 snaps than we would expect given the down, distance and field position of each play against, per data from TruMedia. Since 2002, the first year the league expanded to 32 teams, only this year’s Patriots have saved more points over the first six weeks of a season (45 fewer points per 100 snaps).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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TruMedia is MLB industry standard

TruMedia was mentioned as the MLB industry standard in recent articles about Orioles and Pirates pitching staffs.

The Athletic: “All I have to do is go to TruMedia (Networks) or one of the other outlets that we have and say, ‘You see this? You’ve punched out 13 guys, you’ve had three put it in play, and they are all outs. You can absolutely abuse this pitch to both righties and lefties.’”

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: “From my experience, they’re not an organization that’s just free rein, do what you want, here’s your TruMedia account, go look at whatever you want, because I think a lot of players would get in their own heads about it,” (Class AA pitcher) Beau Sulser said. “They kind of go on a person-by-person basis.”

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Messi is the best shooter

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon examines soccer’s best shooters, including Lionel Messi, using TruMedia’s research tool and graphics…

To determine the best shooters, we can compare xG to xGOT to see which players have added the most value to their attempts. Using TruMedia data for all domestic seasons going back to the start of the 2014-15 season, we'll identify the best at a number of shots and end by identifying the best shooter of them all. …

These are all of Messi's free kicks since 2014. Look how many ended up in the corners. Goals are green, and misses are red.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Redskins rushing woes

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg writes on the Redskins rushing issues this season…

“With Derrius Guice injured, Washington’s primary rusher, Adrian Peterson, is having one of the worst rushing campaigns in the league. Peterson is averaging 2.7 yards per carry, with a success rate of 28 percent, success determined by whether a runner gets at least 45 percent of the yards needed for a first down on first down, at least 60 percent on second down or 100 percent of the yards needed for a first down on third or fourth down. Peterson ranks 35th of the 35 rushers who have at least 40 carries. The league average success rate this year for rushers with at least as many carries as Peterson is 44 percent, according to data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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What if Man United kept David Moyes?

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research tool as he looks back at David Moyes’ short tenure as Manchester United manager…

“Among the six post-Ferguson seasons, Moyes's one year with United ranks last in points (64), but that's perhaps slightly unkind. That team scored more goals (64) than all but two of the others and allowed more (43) than all but one. Their goal differential (plus-21) was the fourth-best of the post-Fergie years. They may have even been slightly unfortunate to finish where they did. Injuries limited Robin van Persie, who'd scored 56 goals in the previous two Premier League seasons, to just 1,579 minutes. And according to TruMedia data, United's expected-goal differential under Moyes was fifth-best in the Premier League in 2013-14.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Are the 2019 Patriots better than the 2007 Patriots?

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to compare the 2019 Patriots to the 2007 team, which finished the regular season 16-0:

“New England’s offense scored 63 more points than expected through the first three games of 2007 after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. Those Patriots saved just 19 points on defense. This year, New England scored 19 more points than expected on offense, with 81 points saved on defense, a complete inverse of how 2007′s squad began its undefeated campaign.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Analyzing possible MLB playoff matchups

ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle uses TruMedia’s research tool analyze the teams that the favorites do (and don’t) want to face in the MLB playoffs…

The Yankees also have to keep the other team off the scoreboard. Their postseason pitching staff profiles as the hardest-throwing staff in the AL, the staff most heavily populated by lefty pitchers and with the most vicious bullpen. The Astros and Athletics have the best collective OPS figures against lefties. The teams that have been the most productive against what TruMedia defines as "hard" pitches are also the Astros and Athletics.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Start Garoppolo vs Steelers defense

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to support his case for Jimmy Garoppolo as a starting fantasy quarterback this week…

“…it is unlikely (Minkah) Fitzpatrick will be able to make an impact in his first week with the [Steelers]. Instead, look for Garoppolo and the 49ers to find success against a pass defense that is allowing 15 points more per game via the pass after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw against. Only the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins have been worse in 2019, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Is Harry Kane on the decline?

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research tool and models to see how Harry Kane may be on the decline…

According to TruMedia's post-shot xG model, Kane's shooting (i.e., where he placed the ball on the goal frame) added a whopping 0.2 xG to his shots per 90 minutes. Finishing, though, is unpredictable from year to year and most players regress toward their xG numbers, so Kane was able to reach the same heights the next year because of the massive increase in shots. The year before produced world-class results on an unsustainable process, and it seemed as if he'd figured out a way to make the results stick.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Redskins line faces challenge vs Cowboys

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg writes that the Redskins defensive line is not yet living up to the hype, using TruMedia’s research tool to highlight the line’s importance this coming week against Dallas…

The more Dallas outscores its opponent, the more the Cowboys run the ball. Since 2007, Coach Jason Garrett’s first year on staff (then as the offensive coordinator), the Cowboys have run the ball more than half the time when leading by four or more points. That drops to 32 percent when Dallas trails by four or more.

Full article: The Washington Post

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