Neil Greenberg and Matt Bonesteel pick their favorite Super Bowl prop bets, including no scores in the game’s first six-and-a-half minutes:
“According to data from TruMedia, the 49ers and Chiefs scored 16 times (11 touchdowns and five field goals) in the first 6½ minutes of games during the regular season and playoffs combined, a span encompassing 48 drives. That rate implies a money line of plus-200 for the affirmative, so “no” looks like a bargain.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreIn his analytical breakdown of the Super Bowl, Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s EPA model as he dives into how the Chiefs and 49ers match up in the passing and running games:
“The Chiefs have a quarterback in Mahomes who possesses elite physical tools and a mind that allows him to make pre-snap adjustments and diagnose coverages against even the most savvy defensive coordinators. The 49ers have a defense that possesses speed and talent at all three levels and can get to opposing quarterbacks with its front four. The Chiefs ranked first in the regular season in EPA per snap on passing plays. The 49ers’ defense ranked second against the pass. This is classic strength on strength.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreAfter riding their running backs through two playoff games, the 49ers may need Jimmy Garoppolo to do more in the Super Bowl, writes Neil Greenberg:
“San Francisco scored six more points per game than expected on passing plays during the regular season after factoring in the down, distance and field position of each attempt, per data from TruMedia. The 49ers scored three fewer points per game than expected on rushing plays. During the postseason, however, the 49ers have scored six more points than expected on running plays, which is unlikely to continue. Only the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles have exceeded that mark in a Super Bowl over the past 17 years.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreStats suggest the Chiefs defense could struggle against Derrick Henry in Sunday’s AFC title game, says Neil Greenberg in The Washington Post…
“…the Chiefs stop just 14 percent of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage, the lowest mark in the NFL during the regular season and playoffs combined, per data from TruMedia. It could be an ideal spot for Henry and the Titans.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research tool and graphics in his article on the most underrated Premier League players this season…
“According to TruMedia data, Guaita has prevented more than seven goals so far this year. Based on their expected goals on target model, which takes into account the location of a shot and then where the shot was placed on the goal frame, you'd expect the average keeper to concede 26.08 goals. Guaita has only allowed 19 (in addition to one own goal). This is what that shot-saving profile looks like: green dots are goals, and the larger dots are higher-value xG opportunities:”
Full article: ESPN.com
Read MoreNick Bosa and the 49ers ability to get sacks are crucial to their defensive dominance this season, writes Neil Greenberg…
“The value of those sacks was enormous. San Francisco’s defense allowed 2.0 points per drive this season when the 49ers didn’t have a sack and only 0.5 points per drive when the team registered one sack or more, per data from TruMedia. The rate of opponents going three-and-out against them also improved from 33 to 47 percent.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read More49ers corner Richard Sherman may be the Packers’ kryptonite, because Aaron Rodgers rarely throws at him, writes Neil Greenberg…
“Teams have scored four fewer points per game against San Francisco than expected on passing plays this year after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw, according to data from TruMedia. Sherman surrendered just 236 yards when targeted in coverage during the regular season and playoffs, and he was never beaten for more than 25 yards, with opponents gaining a league-low 0.4 yards per snap when targeting Sherman in coverage.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Titans running game is unlike any other team’s, thanks to Derrick Henry and a strong offensive line, writes Neil Greenberg:
“Tennessee Coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith have been leaning on Henry much more in the playoffs, including in unconventional situations. The Titans ran the ball 47 percent of the time during the regular season but have done so 70 percent of the time in the postseason, per data from TruMedia. They even ran the ball 60 percent of the time when they trailed the New England Patriots in the first round; the other teams have run the ball 33 percent of the time when trailing in this year’s playoffs.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreTruMedia owner Tony Khan was on the Dan Le Batard Show, talking TruMedia, Jaguars, Fulham, AEW and more:
Read MoreThe Giants hired head coach Joe Judge in part for his run-focused mentality. That looks like a mistake, writes Neil Greenberg:
“One reason the NFL’s best teams run the ball more is because they are often ahead, allowing them to run the ball to kill clock. NFL teams rush the ball 30 percent of the time when trailing by 10 points or more, 44 percent of the time when the score is tied and 55 percent of the time when enjoying a lead of 10 points or more, per data from TruMedia.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreIn picking the Chiefs to cover against the Texans on Sunday, Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research tool and EPA model:
“The Texans’ defense allowed 2.2 points per drive during the regular season (ranking 24th) and opponents scored a league-high 71 percent of the time against Houston inside the red zone. Houston’s opponents managed to score four more points per game than you would expect after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play in 2019, per data from TruMedia. Only four non-playoff teams (Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals) were worse.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreGeorge Kittle is the best tight end in the NFL, and he’ll match up with a Vikings defense that has been the league’s best against tight ends this season, writes Neil Greenberg:
“On Saturday, Kittle will face a Vikings defense that was stout against tight ends this season. Minnesota managed to hold opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 62.2 passer rating when they targeted tight ends in coverage, allowing just one touchdown with seven interceptions, per data from TruMedia. However, the Vikings haven’t yet faced a tight end like Kittle this season, because there isn’t one in the NFL.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia makes his Divisional Round picks, including how the Vikings can upset the 49ers:
“What a Vikings win looks like: For the second straight week, Zimmer cooks up a special defensive game plan that keeps the 49ers’ outside zone run schemes in check. He doubles Kittle in key passing situations, and Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter spend the afternoon in Garoppolo’s face. The 49ers’ defense, which according to TruMedia ranked just 17th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per snap in the second half of the season, looks nothing like the unit that dominated in September and October. Kirk Cousins plays with newfound confidence after last week’s win over the Saints, and the Vikings find success targeting right cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon early and often. In the locker room after the game, Zimmer swaps out his regular hat for a Shanahan-like flat-brim and yells “You like that?!” as Vikings players mob him in celebration.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreESPN’s Ryan O'Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research tool to explore how Leicester City’s Wilfred Ndidi is the best ball-winner in Europe’s top leagues:
“Leicester average more possession than all but 13 teams across England, Italy, Spain and Germany's top flights. Part of that is because [Wilfred] Ndidi is able to keep winning them the ball back, but that also means there are fewer opportunities for him to make defensive plays. TruMedia, though, offers defensive statistics that normalise possession for every 1,000 opponent touches. Ndidi is averaging 7.33 tackles and 4.74 interceptions per 1,000 opponent touches. Both marks are top in the four aforementioned leagues.”
Full article: ESPN.com
Read MoreThe reasons for picking the Texans to beat the Bills are clear, writes Sheil Kapadia for The Athletic:
“The case for the Texans: Their advantage is obvious. It’s at quarterback with Deshaun Watson playing behind an offensive line that can give him better protection than he’s had at any point in his career. During the regular season, the Texans’ offense ranked sixth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per snap, according to TruMedia. “
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreNeil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to show how the Chiefs defense improved in December:
“A liability for most of the season, Kansas City stood tall in December, holding opponents to six points per game fewer than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play. The Chiefs had allowed between two and three points per game more than expected in the three months before that.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThrowing the ball on early downs may be an effective strategy for the Eagles against Seattle on Sunday, writes Sheil Kapadia for The Athletic:
“From a personnel/scheme standpoint, [the Seahawks] are well equipped to stop the run — specifically on early downs. So what’s a good way to counter that? Pass the ball against them on first and second down. According to TruMedia, the Seahawks’ defense ranked 30th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per 100 snaps on first down.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreNeil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model in suggesting the 49ers defense should be high on a playoff fantasy draft board:
“Opponents scored nine points per game fewer than expected against the 49ers after you take into account the down, distance and field position of each play against them, per data from TruMedia. Only the Patriots performed better in 2019.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreIn his Week 16 recap column, The Athletic’s Mike Sando highlights the Seahawks offensive issues against the Cardinals on Sunday:
“If there were effective offensive adjustments to be made against the Cardinals, Seattle could not find them. The Seahawks’ offense cost the team more than 15 expected points, according to a model developed by TruMedia Networks, which sells its services to NFL teams. That made this the Seahawks’ second-worst offensive EPA game of the season. Their worst came against San Francisco in Week 10. That was more understandable. The 49ers have dominated on defense at times this season. Arizona had not allowed fewer than 21 points until Sunday.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s win-probability model in his article about how good Liverpool has been this season:
“TruMedia has a win-probability model that projects a team's likelihood of winning across an entire match; the probability changes based on time on the clock, the score, red cards, and a couple things (number of passes, a running expected-goals tally) that serve as a proxy for how well a team is playing at the moment. Liverpool's average win probability across every minute of every match is currently 65 percent -- better than last year and better than every other team in Europe's Big Five leagues this season.”
Full article: ESPN.com
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