Sheil Kapaia grades and breaks down the blockbuster Jared Goff-Matthew Stafford trade, with assistance from TruMedia’s EPA model:

“Obviously, taking on Goff’s contract is part of the reason why they were able to ask for so much. But let’s be clear: Goff is not a complete disaster. According to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, Goff has performed like the 20th-best quarterback over the last three seasons. The Lions get him on what is essentially a four-year deal worth $27 million per season and two years guaranteed. That’s not cheap, and no one would sign Goff to that contract if he were a free agent this offseason. But Teddy Bridgewater signed with the Carolina Panthers for $21 million per season last offseason. The point is that pretty much all starting quarterbacks who aren’t on rookie contracts are going to be expensive.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Sheil Kapadia and Ted Nguyen collaborate on a film-and-analytics Super Bowl preview, including how the Buccaneers might defend the Chiefs passing game:

“The Bucs’ defensive meetings had to start with a plan for Hill and Travis Kelce. When Mahomes targeted those two players in the first meeting, he went 21-for-23 for 351 yards. Todd Bowles had Tampa in man coverage on just nine of Mahomes’ 53 pass plays in that game, or roughly 17 percent of the time according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus. It wasn’t that the Bucs played a lot of man coverage. It was just that Mahomes burned them (6-for-9 for 113 yards) whenever they were in man. When Tampa lines up in press coverage in the Super Bowl, chances are they’ll mix in a healthy dose of Cover-7, which is a two-deep, man-match coverage that can allow them to bracket Hill and Kelce.”

Full article: The Athletic

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The Seahawks have several big free-agency decisions on offense, including what to do with Chris Carson, says Mike Dugar:

“In the 2018 and 2019 seasons, only Ezekiel Elliott had more carries than Chris Carson, but Carson dropped to 30th in 2020 due in large part to missing four games with injury and Seattle’s evolution into a pass-first team. After seeing the ball as often as any RB in the league, Carson had 11.8 carries per game in the regular season, ranking 29th in the league in 2020. Carson’s raw stats took a hit — he fell well short of 1,000 rushing yards (681) and had only five rushing touchdowns after totaling 16 over the previous two seasons. But some of his efficiency numbers, like his total rushing EPA, are still elite — he ranks fifth among RBs in total rush EPA and eighth in EPA per rush, according to TruMedia.”

Full article: The Athletic

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What's next for J.J. Watt in Houston? Aaron Reiss looks at the numbers and the future:

“Watt finished second among defensive linemen in tackles for loss (14) and first in pass breakups (7), but according to Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, he generated pressure on 8.1 percent of opponents’ drop backs, which ranked 60th out of 93 defensive linemen who played at least 500 snaps. His five sacks and 17 QB hits were both career-lows for a fully healthy season. He even recorded more QB hits (21) while playing in just eight games in 2019, before tearing a pectoral muscle.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Mike Sando uses TruMedia’s EPA model to show how the Packers defense has been no help to Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs:

“The Packers’ latest playoff game started to slip away when the defense inexplicably called for man coverage on the final play of the first half. Brady’s touchdown pass on that play produced a 5.4-point swing in expected points added (EPA) by TruMedia’s model. The Packers finished this game with a combined minus-10.4 EPA on defense and special teams. That was bad by NFL standards, ranking 18th out of 24 single-game team performances in the playoffs this season, but the Packers have been worse than that six times in those 20 playoff games with Rodgers starting.”

Full article: The Athletic

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David Lombardi uses TruMedia’s research platform and EPA model to examine the 49ers quarterback options this offseason:

“Watson’s ANY/A and passing EPA figures also rank near the top of the league, and that’s with mediocre pass protection. The 2020 season was Watson’s best, but the numbers suggest he could be significantly more efficient with improved pass protection: Watson excelled overall despite being sacked on 8.3 percent of dropbacks, ranking 33rd of 36 qualifying quarterbacks.

That makes the structure of Watson’s contract particularly appealing for a team like the 49ers.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Tashan Reed examines the impact safety Johnathan Abram had on the Raiders defense this season, using TruMedia’s research platform:

“For all his faults, Abram had a net positive effect on the Raiders’ defense. While the unit was slightly better against the run without him, it was stronger in yards per passing attempt and yards per play with him. The defense was also superior in expected points added, which measures the significance of plays in points.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Mike Sando looks at how does Aaron Rodgers (and his team's defense and special teams) stacks up against other quarterbacks in conference title games:

“The fact that Brady owns as many NFC Championship Game victories as Rodgers is a credit to more than Brady, as the table below indicates. It shows every quarterback with at least a dozen postseason starts since 2000. It ranks them by their teams’ average offensive expected points added (EPA) per game in those playoff starts, according to TruMedia. Rodgers’ offenses have been most productive in the playoffs by that measure, with those led by Brady and Drew Brees not too far behind. The final column shows the key variable beyond the quarterbacks’ control: average combined EPA per game for their teams’ defensive and special-teams units. Here is where Rodgers’ teams rank last by a wide margin — nearly a touchdown per game worse than those for Brady’s teams. By this measure, Rodgers can envy the support Brees and Philip Rivers have received from their defenses and special-teams units during the playoffs, which is really quite remarkable. Brady certainly is incredible, but he didn’t reach those 10 Super Bowls by himself. Tampa Bay ranked seventh in combined EPA on defense and special teams this season. The Packers ranked 21st.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Michael-Shawn Dugar runs through the Seahawks offseason situation on defense, including unrestricted free agent Benson Mayowa:

“Mayowa was one of Seattle’s best defensive linemen, finishing with 34 pressures according to TruMedia, which tied for second-most on the team with strong safety Jamal Adams. Mayowa, who missed three games due to injury, had the second-highest pressure rate (9.4) among Seattle defensive linemen, trailing only Carlos Dunlap (12.6). Turning 30 in August, Mayowa may have played his way into a slightly bigger contract with another team in 2021 — he signed a one-year deal worth a max of $4 million last offseason — but it would be surprising if he wasn’t atop Seattle’s list of UFAs to take care of.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Deshaun Watson may be even more valuable to the Texans than you think, writes Aaron Reiss, using TruMedia’s EPA model and research platform:

“Did Watson have a weakness? Not really. Watson’s ability to excel no matter the surroundings was the theme of the season. But he was much better when opponents didn’t blitz him.

Defenses tended to blitz more often when playing man coverage, so Watson was unsurprisingly better when facing zone looks. Against zone, he completed a league-leading 78.7 percent of his passes and averaged 0.26 EPA per dropback, which ranked sixth. Versus man coverage, those numbers dropped to 56.5 percent and 0.24 EPA per dropback, the latter of which ranked 12th.”

Full article: The Athletic

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A breakdown of the AFC title game from Sheil Kapadia and Ted Nguyen, using TruMedia’s EPA model and research platform to examine how each quarterback fares against different coverages and against the blitz:

“Kansas City kept Allen in check during the first meeting, as he completed 14 of 27 passes for just 122 yards.

In that game, Spagnuolo mixed up his coverages well. But the Chiefs used two-high looks on 18 of Allen’s 31 pass plays. On those plays, Allen was 8-for-15 for 74 yards, averaging 4.93 YPA.

Spagnuolo blitzed Allen 14 times and was effective. Allen produced -0.12 EPA per play against the blitz, which was his second-worst mark of the season. Overall, though, Allen has been excellent against the blitz. When opponents have sent five rushers or more, he has produced 0.31 EPA per play, which ranks second among all starters.”

Full article: The Athletic

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David Lombardi continues his breakdown of the 49ers season by using TruMedia’s EPA model to highlight special-teams inefficiences:

“Through EPA, we can pinpoint how the 49ers fared in all facets of special teams, where inefficiencies may sometimes not be as apparent as they are on offense and defense.

The EPA table below, courtesy of TruMedia, shows the cumulative totals of each facet. The final row accounts for all special teams plays, including some aspects that aren’t otherwise listed, including extra points. Blue denotes above-average performance while red shows below-average finishes.

Cumulatively, the 2020 49ers came close to being the inverse of the 2011 “Tony Montana Squad” 49ers, whose special teams unit finished No. 1 in multiple phases and led the NFL at plus-66 expected points on the season.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s EPA model and research platform to analyze what the Buccaneers did well against Aaron Rodgers in Week 6:

“Week 6 against Tampa Bay was by far the Packers’ worst offensive performance of the season, according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. What was it that gave Green Bay so much trouble, and was it just a bad game, or did Tampa Bay find a formula for slowing down Rodgers?

A big factor was the Bucs’ ability to pressure Rodgers. He was pressured on a season-high 30.8 percent of his pass plays. Blitzing is in Bowles’ DNA, and he wasn’t afraid to be aggressive against Rodgers. In the first three quarters, before the outcome had been decided, Bowles blitzed Rodgers 50 percent of the time. It was by far Rodgers’ worst performance against the blitz all season in terms of EPA per play. He completed 5 of 16 attempts for 48 yards and two interceptions while also taking two sacks.”

Full article: The Athletic

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