In the News — TruMedia

Take the Steelers against Denver's defense

Neil Greenberg suggests taking the Steelers to cover 7.5 points against the Broncos, in part because Denver’s defense struggled in Week 1…

“The Steelers’ offense, with Ben Roethlisberger back under center, is already humming along. He completed 21 of 32 passes for three touchdowns and will face a Denver defense that allowed 10 points more than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play against them in Week 1, per data from TruMedia. Only seven teams were worse in Week 1.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonSeptember 17, 2020NFL, Washington PostComment

Kyler Murray adds value with legs in Week 1

Kyler Murray’s legs were extremely valuable to the Cardinals, writes The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia in his article on things we learned in Week 1:

“Kyler Murray can gash really good defenses with his scrambling. There are the raw numbers. Murray ran 13 times for 91 yards in the Cardinals’ win over the 49ers. And then there are the advanced stats. No quarterback in the last five years has produced a higher single-game EPA on scrambles than Murray did Sunday, according to TruMedia. Murray had a 25-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-17 and a 22-yard touchdown run. When the offense wasn’t operating smoothly, he put the team on his back. In his second season, Murray is on the short list of most fun players to watch.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonSeptember 16, 2020NFL, football, The AthleticComment

Seahawks have Cam Newton's number

Seahawks have Cam Newton's number

Cam Newton and the Patriots face the Seahawks in Week 2, and Seattle has had Newton's number historically, writes Neil Greenberg:

“Newton has scored 12 fewer points than expected (after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play) per 100 rushing plays against Seattle’s head coach, Pete Carroll in his career, per data from TruMedia. Newton has scored 29 more points per 100 rushing plays against everyone else.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonSeptember 16, 2020NFL, football, Washington PostComment

Michael Carter makes tacklers miss

Josh Edwards of CBS Sports uses TruMedia’s research tool to examine the draft stock of Michael Carter and Trey Ragas:

“[Michael Carter] showed that he was a dual-threat catching six passes out of the backfield for 60 yards. Williams has a muscular build, which allows him to fight through contact and hold up in pass protection. He looks really natural catching passes as well. According to stats from TruMedia, Carter had an adjusted yards before contact of 1.57 and an impressive 9.57 adjusted yards after contact. He was turning missed tackles into larger opportunities.”

Full article: CBS Sports

In the MediaRafe AndersonSeptember 15, 2020College Football, NFL, football, CBSComment

Colts kicking issues continue

In The Athletic’s live NFL Tracker, Mike Sando references TruMedia’s EPA model to highlight the Colts continuing issues on field goals…

“The Colts just missed a 30-yard field-goal try. They finished 2019 ranked last in expected points added on field goals, according to TruMedia’s EPA model. Indy lost about 20 points on FG tries compared to expectation in 2019.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonSeptember 14, 2020NFL, football, The AthleticComment

12 personnel key for Brady's success in Tampa

Tampa Bay’s use of 12 personnel will be pivotal for Tom Brady’s success with the Buccaneers this season, writes Neil Greenberg in The Washington Post:

“Giving Brady more high-quality tight ends to throw to would appear to be a recipe for success. Since 2017, New England has scored 2.3 points more per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each of Brady’s throws to a tight end, the sixth-highest mark among 41 quarterbacks qualifying for the passer rating title, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonSeptember 10, 2020NFL, football, Washington PostComment

Which teams may be affected by lack of home-field?

The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to explore which NFL teams might be affected by the lack of home-field advantage this season:

“What we know about home-field advantage is that it exists, but it has been shrinking. But beyond that, there are a lot of questions. Over the past 10 seasons, home teams have won 56.7 percent of their games, compared to 43.3 percent for away teams. But which individual teams have benefitted the most from home-field advantage?

To answer that question, we looked at Expected Points Added (EPA) at home and on the road for each NFL team over the last five seasons, using TruMedia’s data.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonSeptember 8, 2020The Athletic, NFL, footballComment

What does Matt Doherty bring to Tottenham?

What does Matt Doherty bring to Tottenham?

Writing for The Athletic, Tom Worville and Charlie Eccleshare use TruMedia’s ProVision research tool to analyze what new right back Matt Doherty brings to Tottenham and how he compares to Serge Aurier:

“As the below images show, both Doherty and Aurier like to attack down the right flank. And though the former was positioned as a wing-back and the latter nominally a full-back last season, Jose Mourinho’s lopsided full-backs system essentially meant Aurier was playing as a wing-back when the team had the ball. Doherty is expected to fulfill a similar role this season.

The images show that Aurier looks to get the ball within the width of the box out wide, whereas Doherty is either deeper or actually in the box himself. This ties in with what that City goal demonstrated, namely that two of Doherty’s biggest strengths are his ability to link up with attackers and get on the end of things.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonSeptember 4, 2020soccer, The AthleticComment

Riskiest fantasy football picks

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg highlights the riskiest fantasy football picks, including T.Y. Hilton in the fifth round:

“Hilton is well past his prime (he will turn 31 in November) and will have to find chemistry with his second new quarterback in as many years despite no preseason. He will also have to contend with youngsters Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell for targets in what’s expected to be a run-heavy offense. With the score within eight points, no team used their running backs to run the ball more often than Indianapolis last year, per data from TruMedia (19.5 carries per game).”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonSeptember 3, 2020Fantasy Football, NFL, Washington PostComment

How might Messi fit at Man City?

How might Messi fit at Man City?

How might Lionel Messi fit at Manchester City? Ryan O’Hanlon ponders that scenario, using TruMedia’s ProVision research tool and graphics to look at Messi’s Barcelona career.

“Beyond the raw trends of production, Messi’s game has changed over the years. He’s still the best finisher there ever was, but perhaps because of his aging legs, he’s settling for worse and worse shots with each passing season.

When he was younger, he was getting a ton of great shots and finishing them at a higher clip than any normal human being ever would. That’s how he scored 50 and 46 goals in consecutive La Liga seasons. Now, he’s edging closer to the shot-type of your average player, just with more shots and a much higher conversion rate.”

Full article: No Grass in the Clouds

In the MediaRafe AndersonAugust 28, 2020soccer, No Grass In The CloudsComment

Thiago keys Bayern's Champions League win

Thiago keys Bayern's Champions League win

Soccer writer Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s ProVision research tool and graphics to analyze Thiago Alcantara’s effectiveness in the Champions League final…

“While [Thiago] took a backseat to Kimmich for much of the post-pandemic restart, he’s been back in the midfield since the Champions League came back. He created as many chances as anyone (two) on Sunday and completed more passes in the final-third (20) than everyone else on the field. The 29-year-old connected on 75 passes in all, 22 more than the next-most-influential passer. He’s the reason Bayern were able to press PSG, deeper and deeper, rendering them unable to mount any sustained attack or a full-90-minutes of sustained defensive perfection.”

Full article: No Grass in the Clouds

In the MediaRafe AndersonAugust 24, 2020soccer, No Grass In The CloudsComment

Austin Ekeler is a top-10 fantasy RB

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research platform in compiling his fantasy football Top 200 rankings, saying that the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler is a top-10 fantasy running back and a top-20 overall pick…

“Ekeler is a dynamic playmaker who earned PFF’s highest receiving grade among running backs in 2019. Expect new quarterback Tyrod Taylor to lean just as heavily on Ekeler out of the backfield. During Taylor’s time as a starting quarterback in Buffalo (2015 to 2017), he threw to his running backs more than 18 percent of the time, per data from TruMedia — 10th-most among quarterbacks in that span.”

Full article: The Washington Post

In the MediaRafe AndersonAugust 5, 2020NFL, Fantasy Football, Washington PostComment

Bruno Fernandes changes Paul Pogba's role

Bruno Fernandes changes Paul Pogba's role

ESPN’s Bill Connelly uses TruMedia’s research tool and ProVision graphics to show how Paul Pogba’s role has changed since Bruno Fernandes joined Manchester United…

“Since his return, Pogba's role has shifted quite a bit. He's more involved on the defensive side of the field, and he's been more involved in build-up play. He's attempting more backward passes and more passes into the attacking third but fewer from inside the attacking third. He's all over the map.”

Full article: ESPN.com

In the MediaRafe AndersonJuly 30, 2020espn, soccerComment

Analyzing Premier League predictions

Analyzing Premier League predictions

Soccer writer Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research platform to analyze his Premier League season predictions, including two ProVision charts that show how much better Liverpool and Manchester City have been than the rest of the league.

“…it seemed logical to predict that Liverpool would finish behind Manchester City, given that their goal- and shot-creation wasn’t quite at Pep Guardiola and Co’s level last season. Well, the latter remained true Liverpool’s goal differential declined by 15 goals, and yet they won two more points, while City’s dropped off by five and their points haul declined by 17.

…

Liverpool have been wildly efficient at turning goals into points, while City have gone the opposite way. I feel pretty confident in saying there are reasons behind this: Liverpool are amazing at set pieces and play both a unique defensive and attacking style, while City’s defense gives up super-high-quality chances that are more likely to turn into goals and they do seem to completely demoralize teams and pour on the goals in already-decided games in a way Liverpool do not.”

Full article: No Grass in the Clouds

In the MediaRafe AndersonJuly 28, 2020soccer, No Grass In The CloudsComment

Aaron Rodgers and Packers offense on the decline

In his annual Quarterback Tiers column, The Athletic’s Mike Sando uses TruMedia’s EPA model to look at how Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense have declined in recent years…

“The 2010-2014 Packers outpaced the 2015-2019 version in offensive points per game (27.8 to 23.7), offensive expected points added per game (10.0 to 3.2), EPA per pass attempt (0.38 to 0.16) and EPA per play (0.16 to 0.05) when Rodgers was in the lineup, according to models developed by Albert Larcada, senior director for TruMedia Networks.”

Full article: The Athletic

In the MediaRafe AndersonJuly 27, 2020The Athletic, NFL, footballComment

Christian Pulisic in lofty company

Christian Pulisic in lofty company

ESPN’s Bill Connelly uses ProVision heat maps to show how Christian Pulisic’s role is different with Chelsea and Dortmund, and the research platform to find statistically similar players to Pulisic…

“By the end of his time in Germany, Pulisic had combined the attacking numbers from his first full season with the ball-advancement numbers of his second. During that season in the Bundesliga, only four players averaged at least 0.35 goals per 90 and 0.35 assists over 900+ minutes: Sancho, Pulisic, BVB's Mario Gotze and Eintracht Frankfurt's Sebastien Haller, who moved to West Ham United for £45 million last summer.”

Full article: ESPN.com

In the MediaRafe AndersonJuly 17, 2020soccer, espnComment

The Athletic previews the NFL season team by team

The Athletic previews the NFL season team by team

The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s research platform and expected points added (EPA) model as he previews the season for each NFL team:

“Now we get to the biggest reason for his dropoff: negative plays. Mayfield produced a negative play (sack, fumble or interception) on 10.8 percent of his snaps. That ranked 26th out of 32 starters. According to TruMedia, Mayfield’s EPA on interceptions ranked 41st out of 42 quarterbacks — ahead of only Jameis Winston. His EPA on sacks ranked 35th. The negative plays absolutely crushed him and the Browns offense.”

In the MediaRafe AndersonJuly 9, 2020NFL, football, The AthleticComment

Previewing the MLS is Back tournament

Previewing the MLS is Back tournament

TruMedia’s Paul Carr and Stats Perform’s Jeff Mangurten preview the MLS is Back tournament, using the ProVision research platform to find graphics and statistical nuggets for each group…

“Led by on-loan forward Luis Amarilla, the Minnesota attack have also been more direct. According to the Stats Perform sequence framework, they have been progressing the ball forward at an average speed of 2.4 yards per second. That ranks them fifth in the league this season, and it would have been second over the entire 2019 season, behind only the Red Bulls.

This appears to be a trend for the Loons, as they’ve steadily increased their direct speed during their four MLS seasons, since ranking 17th at 1.7 yards per second in 2017.”

Full article: Stats Perform

In the MediaRafe AndersonJuly 8, 2020soccer, MLS, Stats PerformComment

TruMedia & Stats Perform partner with Cricket South Africa

TruMedia is excited to partner with Stats Perform to deliver the industry-leading ProVision platform to Cricket South Africa at the international and club levels.

“CSA’s national team coaches, analysts and performance staff working with each Mzansi Super League franchise will also have access to Stats Perform’s ProVision recruitment tool (developed in partnership with TruMedia) to inform their player selection and opposition analysis. Powered by Stats Perform’s opta data, ProVision provides an online platform for detailed data-driven analysis across both red ball and white ball formats. The platform is designed to meet the specific needs of teams through the application of interactive graphics, charts, and visualisations, integrated with match footage.”

Full press release

Press ReleaseRafe AndersonJuly 7, 2020CricketComment

Josh Allen's accuracy issues

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell uses TruMedia’s research platform to look at Josh Allen’s accuracy issues…

“While he made strides in this area, accuracy is still a major concern at all levels. Per Trumedia, 23% of Allen's passes were off target, which was the worst rate in the league among those 26 passers. As was the case with Tom Brady, who has been at or near the bottom of this category for years, I'm not concerned that this alone is proof Allen can't become accurate. After you remove the off-target passes from the equation, Brady completed 77.7% of his passes in 2019. Do the same thing for Allen and he completed 76.3% of his on-target throws. If he could just reduce his off-target rate from 23% to 20% or so, it would go a long way.”

Full article: ESPN.com

In the MediaRafe AndersonJuly 6, 2020NFL, espnComment