Philip Rivers could excel against the Titans relatively weak pass rush, writes Jared Dubin:
“The good news for Rivers is that the Titans defense has a lot more in common with that of the Bengals and Lions than with the Ravens. Tennessee rarely gets pressure on opposing passers (31.9 percent of opponent dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, compared with a league average of 35.4 percent) and struggles to cover passes to almost every position.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreNeil Greenberg likes the Browns (-3) to cover against a Texans defense that has struggled this season:
“Houston doesn’t tackle very well, has a below-average pass rush and a secondary that allows a league-high passer rating of 111.2 to its opponents this season. The net result is a defense that is surrendering 12 more points per game than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play against them this season, the highest in the league, per data from TruMedia.
Cleveland, by comparison, is scoring four more points per game than expected in 2020.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreIn his midseason predictions, Sheil Kapadia thinks the Raiders will make the playoffs:
“It’s happened just once in the past 17 seasons, but at 5-3, the Raiders are well-positioned to snag a wild-card spot. They have a minus-11 point differential but also have impressive wins over teams such as the Saints and the Chiefs. According to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, the Raiders have the sixth-best offense. The defense ranks 30th in efficiency, but there’s reason to think the Raiders can improve there. They’ve faced the third-toughest schedule of offenses and have produced turnovers on just 5.4 percent of opponents’ drives.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreRyan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s ProVision product and graphics to explore what makes Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish so good this season:
“Even more so than goal-scoring, assisting is only partially controlled by the player who ultimately gets the assist. You can play the pass, but then you need your teammate to place the shot on goal and for the opposing keeper or an opposing defender to fail to stop it. The best creative players create lots of chances that are only occasionally turned into assists, and well, only Salah and Kevin De Bruyne have created more chances than Grealish so far this season. …
Almost all of them are either passes into the penalty area or passes from inside the penalty area. He’s not a quarterback throwing a five-yard screen pass that ends up going for a 70-yard TD. Grealish is putting the ball on a platter for his teammates, which is why he’s, once again, second in the Premier League to only Harry Kane in expected assists, which is the best estimation of the combined quantity and quality of goal-scoring opportunities a player creates.”
Full article: No Grass in the Clouds
Read MoreThe Athletic’s Mike Sando uses TruMedia’s research tool to show the rarity of Buffalo’s pass-heavy attack against the Seahawks:
“The Bills executed 24 pass plays with just one rush in the first 28 minutes for an astounding 96 percent pass rate. That figure ranks No. 1 out of 10,472 offensive team games since 2000, according to research through TruMedia Networks. The next four games on that very long list spanning two decades featured vintage 2007 Tom Brady, vintage 2013 Drew Brees and vintage Peyton Manning from both 2004 and 2006, including once when Manning opened a game against Brett Favre’s Green Bay Packers with 22 consecutive pass plays.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreThe Dolphins defense is drastically improved in 2020, in part because of more Cover-0 and effective selective blitzes:
“The Dolphins have dramatically ramped up their usage of Cover-0 this season, indicating that they have been far more willing to send the house after the quarterback and trust that their cornerbacks will be able to handle themselves on the back end. So far, that trust has been paid off. In 2019, opposing passers completed 12 of 20 passes for 202 yards, five touchdowns, and just one interception against the Dolphins when they played Cover-0, per PFF and TruMedia. That's a 112.9 passer rating. This year, though, the Dolphins have already played more snaps in Cover-0 than they did a year ago, and passers are just 22 of 42 for 104 yards, zero touchdowns, and three picks against them -- a 28.5 passer rating. That's not a typo.
Flores is selective about deploying his all-out blitzes, just as he is with blitzing in general. The Dolphins have sent at least one extra rusher after the quarterback on 35.3 percent of opponent dropbacks, per PFF and TruMedia, a figure that is solidly above the league average of 28.3 percent but not close to, say, the Ravens' 41.6 percent rate, or the Steelers' 43.8 percent mark.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreUEFA uses the ProVision research platform to analyze the Europa League season and generate graphics for their annual technical report:
“Much of Sevilla’s success in winning a sixth UEFA Europa League title came from their high press, which earned high reward. … Sevilla’s phases of possession started, on average, 39.4 metres from their own goal - the second highest in the UEFA Europa League behind LASK. Crucially, they were able to sustain this high press throughout the competition, with a figure of 37.5m in the final.”
2019/20 Europa League Technical Report
Read MoreThe Browns aren’t as good as their record, and it could be much worse for Cleveland, says Neil Greenberg:
“The Browns are also getting a high rate of sacks on their pass pressures, which carries a large element of luck with it. … Don’t think those extra few sacks make much of a difference? Consider the Browns’ defense saves the team six points per game via sacking the quarterback, per data from TruMedia. Without the added benefit of those, Cleveland’s point differential, and record, would be much worse.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreIn his weekly picks column, Sheil Kapadia likes the Ravens (-1.5) in Indianapolis, in part because of the Colts struggling run game…
“Frank Reich suggested that the numbers don’t tell the whole story with the Colts’ run game, but the numbers are concerning. Football Outsiders has Indianapolis 22nd in rushing efficiency, and according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, the Colts rank 29th in rushing. Philip Rivers has played well the last two games and faces a Ravens defense that will be without cornerback Marlon Humphrey. But Baltimore will be a motivated group after last week’s loss to the Steelers, and the Ravens are still a really good team. I think they bounce back here.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreJared Dubin of CBS Sports uses TruMedia’s research tool to dig into how good Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers have been this season:
“According to Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, Adams has been targeted on 31.2 percent of his routes this season, the second-highest mark among wide receivers league-wide. Despite playing only three and a half games, Adams has a 36-449-4 receiving line, putting him on pace for a hilarious 136-1571-14 in just 14 games. ...
Adams is at his most dominant when working against man coverage, which allows him to leverage his note perfect route-running skills and impeccable body control to both create and take advantage of space. And he doesn't just beat soft man coverage; he does most of this work against press. His 111 receptions against press coverage are fourth-most in the league since 2017, per PFF and TruMedia, while 15 touchdown catches against man coverage during that time are the most in the NFL. His 2.39 yards per route run average against man is elite, and nearly unmatched around the league.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreTake the Bears (+4.5) against a weak Saints defense, writes Sheil Kapadia in his weekly picks column:
“ESPN analyst Brian Griese created a stir Monday night when he mentioned how Nick Foles said during a production meeting that he didn’t always have time to execute the play calls that Matt Nagy was giving him. Overall, though, the Bears’ offense has a lot of quick throws baked in. Foles has gotten rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less on 54.2 percent of his pass plays — the third-highest rate of any starter. New Orleans’ defense continues to suffer coverage busts every week and ranks 29th in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. As of this writing, it looks like the Saints could once again be without Michael Thomas.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreSheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s expected points added model throughout his weekly power rankings for The Athletic:
“Note that when describing where a team ranks in offense, defense, etc., we are using TruMedia’s Expected Points Added model. …
What are fair expectations for Tua Tagovailoa the rest of the way? With Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins ranked 13th in passing and 19th overall offensively. Can Tagovailoa keep them in that same ballpark? Can he provide an upgrade? The Dolphins are 3-3 and have by far the best point differential (plus-47) in the AFC East. It’s not crazy to think they could get into the postseason if Tagovailoa plays well.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreESPN’s David Schoenfield uses TruMedia’s umpire model for strikes looking above average, to recommend the Dodgers start Austin Barnes at catcher in World Series Game 6:
“Most importantly, Barnes is the better framer. According to ESPN TruMedia data during the postseason, Barnes has an expected called strike number of 119 and an actual called strike number of 129, so he's plus-10. Smith has an expected called strike number of 235 and 225 actual called strikes, so he's minus-10. Furthermore, with Smith catching, Gonsolin has allowed eight runs in 7⅔ innings.”
Full article: ESPN
Read MoreFlorida State is highly committed to a youth movement, writes Brendan Sonnone with the help of TruMedia’s research tool:
“The Seminoles have played freshmen from the Class of 2020 at a high rate compared to other programs across the country according to snap counts at specific positions among individual freshmen, per TruMedia via Pro Football Focus, and other research. FSU has true freshmen who are 11th or higher among classmates in snaps played at quarterback (Tate Rodemaker), running back (Lawrance Toafili), tight end (Preston Daniel), offensive line (Robert Scott), edge defender (Josh Griffis), and linebacker (Stephen Dix Jr. and DJ Lundy).”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreUEFA used the ProVision research platform to analyze the Champions League season and generate graphics for their annual technical report:
“[PSG] offered another example of the forward-looking centre-back in their impressive young Frenchman, Dayot Upamecano, whose quarter-final display against Atlético featured the most carries (69), most touches (100) and second-most passes in the opposition half (39) of any Leipzig player.”
2019-20 UEFA Champions League technical report
Read MoreRyan O’Hanlon uses ProVision’s research tool and graphics to analyze Patrick Bamford’s hot start for Leeds:
“Through six games as of Monday afternoon, Bamford is fourth in the Premier League in shots -- behind Mohamed Salah, Harry Kane, and Aleksandar Mitrovic. He’s fourth in xG -- behind DCL, Sadio Mane, and Kane. And he’s second in xGOT -- behind only Son Heung-min. Only Son, Danny Ings, and Alexandre Lacazette have added more goals with their finishing.
And so, Bamford is getting great chances (high xG), finishing them successfully (higher xGOT), and scoring them impressively (even higher goal total).”
Full article: No Grass in the Clouds
Read MoreUAB running back Spencer Brown has impressed scouts this season, though one number may raise eyebrows, writes Josh Edwards:
“The Alabama native is a bigger back with limited exposure to the passing game. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged five receptions. In a 24-20 loss to Louisiana, Brown rushed for 128 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries. A concern is that his yards per carry has dipped each quarter this season, according to TruMedia stats. He averages 5.77 yards per carry in the first quarter and just 3.35 yards per carry in the fourth quarter.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreNick Foles hasn’t been great for the Bears, but at least they’re not allowing an extreme amount of pressure, writes Jared Dubin:
“The one saving grace for the offense so far is that Foles has been under pressure only a slightly above-average percentage of the time, seeing defenders in his face on 32.5 percent of drop-backs, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. The Rams have generated pressure only slightly more often than that (33.2 percent) but have generally done so without resorting to many blitzes. Being able to get to or near Foles while still playing coverage gives L.A. an advantage on this side of the ball -- especially if the Rams decide to use Jalen Ramsey to shadow star Bears wideout Allen Robinson.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreThe Titans offense has not regressed as expected, writes Josh Edwards, using TruMedia’s research tool:
“Having a versatile crew of receivers allows the Titans to use all different kinds of route combinations to move the ball on those intermediate passes. Tannehill is 31 of 48 for 571 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a league-best 133.2 passer rating on throws traveling between 10 and 19 yards downfield so far this season, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. As as a result, a league-best 43.9 percent of his pass attempts this season have resulted in first downs or touchdowns. Tannehill has spread the wealth to each of his weapons with those throws, and it's actually kind of remarkable how similar some of the passes look to each other.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreThe Jets offense has been dreadful this season, and Adam Gase doesn’t look like the coach to fix it:
“The Jets are only surrendering five points per game more than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play against them, per data from TruMedia. That is close to the league average. The offense, by comparison, is scoring more than 12 points per game fewer than expected this season, by far the worst mark in the NFL. The Broncos are the second worst offense compared to expectations, scoring seven points per game fewer than anticipated.”
Full article: The Washington Post
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