Posts in In the Media
Michael Carter makes tacklers miss

Josh Edwards of CBS Sports uses TruMedia’s research tool to examine the draft stock of Michael Carter and Trey Ragas:

“[Michael Carter] showed that he was a dual-threat catching six passes out of the backfield for 60 yards. Williams has a muscular build, which allows him to fight through contact and hold up in pass protection. He looks really natural catching passes as well. According to stats from TruMedia, Carter had an adjusted yards before contact of 1.57 and an impressive 9.57 adjusted yards after contact. He was turning missed tackles into larger opportunities.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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In the MediaRafe AndersonCollege Football, NFL, football, CBSComment
Colts kicking issues continue

In The Athletic’s live NFL Tracker, Mike Sando references TruMedia’s EPA model to highlight the Colts continuing issues on field goals…

“The Colts just missed a 30-yard field-goal try. They finished 2019 ranked last in expected points added on field goals, according to TruMedia’s EPA model. Indy lost about 20 points on FG tries compared to expectation in 2019.”

Full article: The Athletic

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, The AthleticComment
12 personnel key for Brady's success in Tampa

Tampa Bay’s use of 12 personnel will be pivotal for Tom Brady’s success with the Buccaneers this season, writes Neil Greenberg in The Washington Post:

“Giving Brady more high-quality tight ends to throw to would appear to be a recipe for success. Since 2017, New England has scored 2.3 points more per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each of Brady’s throws to a tight end, the sixth-highest mark among 41 quarterbacks qualifying for the passer rating title, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, Washington PostComment
Which teams may be affected by lack of home-field?

The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to explore which NFL teams might be affected by the lack of home-field advantage this season:

“What we know about home-field advantage is that it exists, but it has been shrinking. But beyond that, there are a lot of questions. Over the past 10 seasons, home teams have won 56.7 percent of their games, compared to 43.3 percent for away teams. But which individual teams have benefitted the most from home-field advantage?

To answer that question, we looked at Expected Points Added (EPA) at home and on the road for each NFL team over the last five seasons, using TruMedia’s data.”

Full article: The Athletic

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In the MediaRafe AndersonThe Athletic, NFL, footballComment
What does Matt Doherty bring to Tottenham?
What does Matt Doherty bring to Tottenham?

Writing for The Athletic, Tom Worville and Charlie Eccleshare use TruMedia’s ProVision research tool to analyze what new right back Matt Doherty brings to Tottenham and how he compares to Serge Aurier:

“As the below images show, both Doherty and Aurier like to attack down the right flank. And though the former was positioned as a wing-back and the latter nominally a full-back last season, Jose Mourinho’s lopsided full-backs system essentially meant Aurier was playing as a wing-back when the team had the ball. Doherty is expected to fulfill a similar role this season.

The images show that Aurier looks to get the ball within the width of the box out wide, whereas Doherty is either deeper or actually in the box himself. This ties in with what that City goal demonstrated, namely that two of Doherty’s biggest strengths are his ability to link up with attackers and get on the end of things.”

Full article: The Athletic

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In the MediaRafe Andersonsoccer, The AthleticComment
Riskiest fantasy football picks

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg highlights the riskiest fantasy football picks, including T.Y. Hilton in the fifth round:

“Hilton is well past his prime (he will turn 31 in November) and will have to find chemistry with his second new quarterback in as many years despite no preseason. He will also have to contend with youngsters Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell for targets in what’s expected to be a run-heavy offense. With the score within eight points, no team used their running backs to run the ball more often than Indianapolis last year, per data from TruMedia (19.5 carries per game).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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In the MediaRafe AndersonFantasy Football, NFL, Washington PostComment
How might Messi fit at Man City?
How might Messi fit at Man City?

How might Lionel Messi fit at Manchester City? Ryan O’Hanlon ponders that scenario, using TruMedia’s ProVision research tool and graphics to look at Messi’s Barcelona career.

“Beyond the raw trends of production, Messi’s game has changed over the years. He’s still the best finisher there ever was, but perhaps because of his aging legs, he’s settling for worse and worse shots with each passing season.

When he was younger, he was getting a ton of great shots and finishing them at a higher clip than any normal human being ever would. That’s how he scored 50 and 46 goals in consecutive La Liga seasons. Now, he’s edging closer to the shot-type of your average player, just with more shots and a much higher conversion rate.”

Full article: No Grass in the Clouds

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In the MediaRafe Andersonsoccer, No Grass In The CloudsComment
Thiago keys Bayern's Champions League win
Thiago keys Bayern's Champions League win

Soccer writer Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s ProVision research tool and graphics to analyze Thiago Alcantara’s effectiveness in the Champions League final…

“While [Thiago] took a backseat to Kimmich for much of the post-pandemic restart, he’s been back in the midfield since the Champions League came back. He created as many chances as anyone (two) on Sunday and completed more passes in the final-third (20) than everyone else on the field. The 29-year-old connected on 75 passes in all, 22 more than the next-most-influential passer. He’s the reason Bayern were able to press PSG, deeper and deeper, rendering them unable to mount any sustained attack or a full-90-minutes of sustained defensive perfection.”

Full article: No Grass in the Clouds

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In the MediaRafe Andersonsoccer, No Grass In The CloudsComment
Austin Ekeler is a top-10 fantasy RB

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research platform in compiling his fantasy football Top 200 rankings, saying that the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler is a top-10 fantasy running back and a top-20 overall pick…

“Ekeler is a dynamic playmaker who earned PFF’s highest receiving grade among running backs in 2019. Expect new quarterback Tyrod Taylor to lean just as heavily on Ekeler out of the backfield. During Taylor’s time as a starting quarterback in Buffalo (2015 to 2017), he threw to his running backs more than 18 percent of the time, per data from TruMedia — 10th-most among quarterbacks in that span.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, Fantasy Football, Washington PostComment
Bruno Fernandes changes Paul Pogba's role
Bruno Fernandes changes Paul Pogba's role

ESPN’s Bill Connelly uses TruMedia’s research tool and ProVision graphics to show how Paul Pogba’s role has changed since Bruno Fernandes joined Manchester United…

“Since his return, Pogba's role has shifted quite a bit. He's more involved on the defensive side of the field, and he's been more involved in build-up play. He's attempting more backward passes and more passes into the attacking third but fewer from inside the attacking third. He's all over the map.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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In the MediaRafe Andersonespn, soccerComment
Analyzing Premier League predictions
Analyzing Premier League predictions

Soccer writer Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research platform to analyze his Premier League season predictions, including two ProVision charts that show how much better Liverpool and Manchester City have been than the rest of the league.

“…it seemed logical to predict that Liverpool would finish behind Manchester City, given that their goal- and shot-creation wasn’t quite at Pep Guardiola and Co’s level last season. Well, the latter remained true Liverpool’s goal differential declined by 15 goals, and yet they won two more points, while City’s dropped off by five and their points haul declined by 17.

…

Liverpool have been wildly efficient at turning goals into points, while City have gone the opposite way. I feel pretty confident in saying there are reasons behind this: Liverpool are amazing at set pieces and play both a unique defensive and attacking style, while City’s defense gives up super-high-quality chances that are more likely to turn into goals and they do seem to completely demoralize teams and pour on the goals in already-decided games in a way Liverpool do not.”

Full article: No Grass in the Clouds

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In the MediaRafe Andersonsoccer, No Grass In The CloudsComment
Aaron Rodgers and Packers offense on the decline

In his annual Quarterback Tiers column, The Athletic’s Mike Sando uses TruMedia’s EPA model to look at how Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense have declined in recent years…

“The 2010-2014 Packers outpaced the 2015-2019 version in offensive points per game (27.8 to 23.7), offensive expected points added per game (10.0 to 3.2), EPA per pass attempt (0.38 to 0.16) and EPA per play (0.16 to 0.05) when Rodgers was in the lineup, according to models developed by Albert Larcada, senior director for TruMedia Networks.”

Full article: The Athletic

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In the MediaRafe AndersonThe Athletic, NFL, footballComment
Christian Pulisic in lofty company
Christian Pulisic in lofty company

ESPN’s Bill Connelly uses ProVision heat maps to show how Christian Pulisic’s role is different with Chelsea and Dortmund, and the research platform to find statistically similar players to Pulisic…

“By the end of his time in Germany, Pulisic had combined the attacking numbers from his first full season with the ball-advancement numbers of his second. During that season in the Bundesliga, only four players averaged at least 0.35 goals per 90 and 0.35 assists over 900+ minutes: Sancho, Pulisic, BVB's Mario Gotze and Eintracht Frankfurt's Sebastien Haller, who moved to West Ham United for £45 million last summer.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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In the MediaRafe Andersonsoccer, espnComment
The Athletic previews the NFL season team by team
The Athletic previews the NFL season team by team

The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s research platform and expected points added (EPA) model as he previews the season for each NFL team:

“Now we get to the biggest reason for his dropoff: negative plays. Mayfield produced a negative play (sack, fumble or interception) on 10.8 percent of his snaps. That ranked 26th out of 32 starters. According to TruMedia, Mayfield’s EPA on interceptions ranked 41st out of 42 quarterbacks — ahead of only Jameis Winston. His EPA on sacks ranked 35th. The negative plays absolutely crushed him and the Browns offense.”

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, football, The AthleticComment
Previewing the MLS is Back tournament
Previewing the MLS is Back tournament

TruMedia’s Paul Carr and Stats Perform’s Jeff Mangurten preview the MLS is Back tournament, using the ProVision research platform to find graphics and statistical nuggets for each group…

“Led by on-loan forward Luis Amarilla, the Minnesota attack have also been more direct. According to the Stats Perform sequence framework, they have been progressing the ball forward at an average speed of 2.4 yards per second. That ranks them fifth in the league this season, and it would have been second over the entire 2019 season, behind only the Red Bulls.

This appears to be a trend for the Loons, as they’ve steadily increased their direct speed during their four MLS seasons, since ranking 17th at 1.7 yards per second in 2017.”

Full article: Stats Perform

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In the MediaRafe Andersonsoccer, MLS, Stats PerformComment
Josh Allen's accuracy issues

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell uses TruMedia’s research platform to look at Josh Allen’s accuracy issues…

“While he made strides in this area, accuracy is still a major concern at all levels. Per Trumedia, 23% of Allen's passes were off target, which was the worst rate in the league among those 26 passers. As was the case with Tom Brady, who has been at or near the bottom of this category for years, I'm not concerned that this alone is proof Allen can't become accurate. After you remove the off-target passes from the equation, Brady completed 77.7% of his passes in 2019. Do the same thing for Allen and he completed 76.3% of his on-target throws. If he could just reduce his off-target rate from 23% to 20% or so, it would go a long way.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, espnComment
Buccaneers struggle in disguised coverage

ESPN’s Jenna Laine uses TruMedia’s research platform to support defensive coordinator Todd Bowles’ statement that the Buccaneers didn’t disguise their defenses well last season…

" ‘We've gotta get better from a disguise [coverage] standpoint of understanding the details of the defense. I think we can take leaps and bounds in that aspect,’ Bowles said.

The Bucs surrendered 58.2 yards per game last year when in disguised coverage -- fifth worst in the league, according to TruMedia. Opponents had a 117.6 passing rating against them when it disguised coverage -- third worst in the league. And, the Bucs gave up eight touchdowns in disguised coverage last year -- second most in the league.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, espnComment
Ravens look to maintain offensive line success

The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia analyzes Baltimore's 2019 and offseason as he previews 2020, using TruMedia’s EPA model:

“Up front, (Marshall) Yanda’s retirement is a big loss. He was the top-ranked pass-blocking guard according to ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric. But overall, the Ravens return four of five starters on a unit that ranked second in pass-block win rate. Ronnie Stanley and Orlando Brown ranked fourth and sixth, respectively, among tackles. The Titans were the only other team with two tackles ranked in the top 10. Jackson was sacked or hit on 15.6 percent of his pass plays, which was the fifth-lowest rate for any starter. That’s especially impressive, considering Jackson got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less on just 33.7 percent of his dropbacks; that ranked 32nd out of 38 quarterbacks. According to TruMedia, no team was hurt less (using EPA) by sacks than the Ravens.”

Full article: The Athletic

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In the MediaRafe AndersonNFL, The AthleticComment
Will teams choose fourth and 15?
Will teams choose fourth and 15?

How might the NFL’s alternative to onside kicks affect trailing teams’ strategy? Neil Greenberg takes a look, using TruMedia’s research tool…

“Not only would an attempt on fourth and 15 provide added drama, it would also give the trailing team a better chance. Over the past 18 years, teams have converted 32 of 115 attempts in this scenario for a 28 percent success rate, per TruMedia. If we widen the parameters to include third and 15 (a decent proxy, given a team would normally punt on the ensuing fourth down if it wasn’t trailing late), the success rate drops to 18 percent (470 for 2,580), but that’s still an improvement over the traditional onside kick.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, football, Washington PostComment