Chiefs are getting lucky
Chiefs are getting lucky

Using TruMedia’s research platform and EPA model, Neil Greenberg posits that the Chiefs are getting lucky this season:

“The offense isn’t the problem, but it is masking one. The Chiefs are scoring 2.7 points per drive this season, the third-most behind the Green Bay Packers (3.0) and Tennessee Titans (2.8). Kansas City sustains drives, too, and is only forced to go three-and-out 21 percent of the time, the lowest rate in the league this year. Plus, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 66 percent of his passes for a league-leading 4,740 yards, 38 touchdowns and six interceptions, producing a 108.2 passer rating. He is the second-most valuable passer of 2020 per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating and the team has scored 12 more points per game than expected on his throws after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each passing play, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Keep Josh Allen in the pocket
Keep Josh Allen in the pocket

Jared Dubin previews the final Monday Night game of the season, highlighting the importance of the Patriots keeping Josh Allen in the pocket:

“The key to containing Allen will be to get pressure while also not allowing him to escape to the outside -- especially to his right. Allen has thrown for 366 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions when escaping pressure to the right side of the field, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. Going to his left, it's 160 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick. Getting into his line of vision without allowing him to roll right and load up that cannon on his arm is key to stopping the Buffalo passing attack. The Patriots have been below-average at generating pressure this year, though, per PFF and TruMedia, notching a sack, hit, or hurry on 32.8 percent of opponent dropbacks against a league average of 37.6 percent.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Seahawks need to pressure Goff
Seahawks need to pressure Goff

Michael-Shawn Dugar previews Rams-Seahawks, saying Seattle needs to defend Jared Goff better than in their previous meeting:

“The Seahawks win if … They bring the heat on quarterback Jared Goff again. Ahead of the Week 10 matchup, I predicted the Rams would win if Goff had a clean jersey after the game. Seattle got him three times for sacks, including a forced fumble, along with a quarterback hit from defensive end Carlos Dunlap. Goff was decent, not great, in that game, but he threw for 300 yards and moved the ball well enough to give his team the victory, accounting for 7.65 expected points on his dropbacks, according to TruMedia. Seattle needs even more pressure on Goff to make up for what is likely to be a rough day for the Seahawks’ offense. “

Full article: The Athletic

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Take the Dolphins to cover vs Raiders
Take the Dolphins to cover vs Raiders

Sheil Kapadia likes the Dolphins (-3) over Oakland, in part because of the Raiders terrible defense:

“The Raiders are 2-6 with a minus-67 point differential in December over the last two seasons, and one of those wins was the “Gregg Williams game” against the Jets. Overall, Jon Gruden has done some impressive things. The Raiders are eighth offensively over the last two seasons, according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. The defense, though, is 32nd. And overall, Gruden has an 18-28 record. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are trying to hold off the Ravens for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. It’s unclear as of this writing whether Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota will start for the Raiders. The Dolphins’ offense has not been great, but this could be a “get right” game for Tua Tagovailoa, and Miami’s defense has been impressive.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Washington needs a quarterback
Washington needs a quarterback

In his weekly NFL power rankings, Sheil Kapadia makes a wish for each team, hoping Washington gets a quarterback to go with their stellar defense:

“Wish: An upgrade at quarterback. There’s no reason to think Dwayne Haskins can be the guy, and while Alex Smith has been a fantastic story, it would be a mistake for Washington to go into next season with him penciled in as the starter. The roster isn’t great, but the defense ranks third in EPA per snap and is loaded with young talent up front. And Washington has some fun offensive skill-position players in Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. My question: Why isn’t Washington mentioned more often as a potential landing spot for guys like Matthew Stafford? It needs upgrades on the offensive line and more pass-catching help, but if Washington were able to get above-average quarterback play, it could be a really fun team in 2021.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Special teams critical in Cardinals win
Special teams critical in Cardinals win

In his Pick Six column, Mike Sando contextualizes the importance of special teams in the Cardinals win over the Eagles on Sunday:

“As for the Eagles’ special teams: They allowed Arizona to finish the game with plus-15.7 EPA in that category, the best single-game mark for the Cardinals in 343 total games since 2000, according to TruMedia Networks. That included 4.4 EPA on a 26-yard completed pass from a punt formation on fourth-and-2.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Packers good on first possession
Packers good on first possession

In his weekly picks column, Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s EPA model to highlight the Packers success on first possessions:

“There’s a lot at stake in the final three weeks for the Packers. They currently have a 66.5 percent chance to earn a first-round bye, according to The Athletic’s playoff projections from Ethan Douglas. One thing that’s worked especially well for Green Bay: Matt LaFleur’s opening game scripts. According to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, no offense has been better on opening drives than the Packers this season.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Dolphins defense pushes for playoffs
Dolphins defense pushes for playoffs

In his Week 15 preview, Neil Greenberg looks at playoff leverage for the weekend's key games, including the Dolphins trying to make the playoffs on the strength of their defense:

“Miami, meanwhile, is looking to capture its first playoff berth since 2016. And the Dolphins are doing it with a defense that saves three points per game, according to data from TruMedia. Only the aforementioned Rams, Washington Football Team and Pittsburgh Steelers have been better at limiting an opponent’s ability to score after factoring in the down, distance and field position of each play against them.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Raiders glaring defensive issues
Raiders glaring defensive issues

Ted Nguyen and Sheil Kapadia dissect the Raiders defensive issues, with help from TruMedia’s research tool and EPA model:

“Is there hope for a Raiders turnaround in the final three weeks? If not, what areas do they need to address in 2021? Let’s start with the big picture. The numbers are as bad as you’d expect. The Raiders are allowing 30.1 points per game, which ranks 30th. And according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, they rank 31st. It’s not just that they haven’t gotten better. They’ve been worse this season than last by both metrics.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Raiders pass protection key for Carr
Raiders pass protection key for Carr

Jared Dubin preview’s the Chargers-Raiders game, including the importance of how the Raiders protecting Derek Carr:

“Some of the downturn has to be attributable to the fact that Carr has been under pressure more often. He's never been all that adept at dealing with rushers in his face, and this season has been no different. According to Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, Vegas' pressure rate has spiked from 30 percent to 35 percent over the past three weeks, as Carr's performance (and the offense's overall) have taken a step backwards. On the season, Carr has a 64.9 passer rating under pressure, throwing just three touchdowns against four interceptions. His rating has jumped more than 50 points, to 115.1, when throwing from a clean pocket.

So the key in this game, then, will be keeping him well protected. The Chargers have pressured opponents on 36 percent of dropbacks, per PFF and Tru Media, a rate just south of the 37 percent league average. But Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are extremely capable, and have proven their ability to take over games on occasion. It'll be important for the Raiders' offensive line to make sure those guys don't get too many one-on-one opportunities, and to have Carr get the ball out quickly when they're singled up on the edge.“

Full article: CBS Sports

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Rams defense pushes them to top
Rams defense pushes them to top

The Rams check in at No. 4 in Sheil Kapadia's power rankings this week, thanks to their superb defense:

“They traded their first-round pick to the Jaguars for Jalen Ramsey. A lot of teams make big moves for cornerbacks thinking they’re getting true shut-down players only to be disappointed. The Rams actually got one of those guys. Ramsey has been one of the best defensive players in the NFL this season. The Rams crushed the Patriots on Thursday night. If the season ended today, they’d be the NFC West champs and the No. 3 seed. Per TruMedia’s model, the Rams have the league’s second-best defense behind only the Steelers.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Route trees for QB prospects
Route trees for QB prospects

Josh Edwards breaks down the draft prospects of top college quarterbacks, using TruMedia’s route trees to analyze different throws:

“According to TruMedia, [Trask’s] weakness has been medium and deep routes breaking towards the boundary. He has been below average in that situation this season but those attempts have accounted for just 3.2% of his total throws. His efficiency on underneath routes has been red hot.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Raiders defense declining under Gruden
Raiders defense declining under Gruden

As TruMedia’s EPA model shows, the Raiders defense has been on the decline under Jon Gruden, writes Mike Sando in his weekly Pick Six column:

“But after the disaster against Indy in a measuring-stick game, the Raiders’ flaws are in the open. They rank last in defensive EPA since Gruden took over, down from 19th under Del Rio. … Against the Colts, the offense added 6.1 EPA, while the defense lost 23.5, its fifth-worst showing under Gruden and a figure worse than any during the 48-game Del Rio era. The Raiders rank seventh in offensive EPA per game this season, compared to 31st on defense.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Mayfield effective on play action
Mayfield effective on play action

In his Ravens-Browns preview, Jared Dubin looks at Baker Mayfield’s effectiveness on play action:

“Baker Mayfield has lit it up in two consecutive games, completing 44 of 62 passes for 592 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. On the season, he's a far better passer after first faking a run than he is on a straight dropback, seeing his passer rating spike from 85.4 to 121.9 with the aid of a play-action fake. It's not uncommon for quarterbacks to be better on play-action than without it, but Mayfield's split is wider than most. The same is true of passes against the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed an 80.7 rating on straight dropbacks, per PFF and Tru Media, compared with 110.7 after play fakes.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Seahawks effective run game is sustainable
Seahawks effective run game is sustainable

Michael-Shawn Dugar analyzes Seattle’s romp over the Jets, writing that the effective Seahawks run game seems sustainable:

“Here are Chris Carson’s last three games: 33 carries, 182 yards, 2 TDs, 5.52 yards per carry. He continues to have positive EPA each week on the ground, according to TruMedia, making the most of a workload that is being shared with Carlos Hyde. Seattle’s pass-heaviness has effectively allowed the Seahawks to “establish the pass,” and teams are so worried about their downfield attack from the jump that they are prioritizing taking that away instead of clogging the run. This then limits the number of carries against stacked boxes.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Analyzing NFL's young slot WR
Analyzing NFL's young slot WR

In his series on wide receivers still on rookie contracts, Jared Dubin focuses on slot receivers and offensive weapons:

“They do a lot of their passing-game work close to the line of scrimmage: with an average route-break depth of just 6.8 yards downfield, they often provide a security blanket for their quarterback on underneath throws and/or bubble screens. Because they tend to work in close, they produce explosive plays less often (16.9 percent of their targets) than any other group we're watching, despite having a target rate on par with their peers. Our slot mavens and offensive weapons have been targeted on 20.4 percent of their routes this season, per PFF and TruMedia, compared with 20.8 percent for possession receivers, 20.9 percent for the all-around monsters, and 21.6 percent for the technicians.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Josh Allen's stellar game vs 49ers
Josh Allen's stellar game vs 49ers

In his weekly picks column, Sheil Kapadia is excited for this week’s Steelers-Bills games, pitting Josh Allen’s great form against the Steelers strong defense:

“I can’t wait for this game. The Steelers rank first in defensive efficiency, and the Bills rank seventh in offensive efficiency. How good was Josh Allen last week against the 49ers? According to TruMedia’s EPA model, it was the sixth-best passing game for any team this season. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is coming off its first loss but needs this game badly to hold on to the all-important top seed in the AFC. I like both these coaches. I like both these teams. Whenever it’s a coin-flip game like this, my move is to just take the points. I’ll predict a close game where T.J. Watt or Minkah Fitzpatrick forces a turnover late to give the Steelers the edge.”

Full article: The Athletic

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How is Calvert-Lewin the Premier League's top scorer?
How is Calvert-Lewin the Premier League's top scorer?

Matt Furniss uses the ProVision research platform and graphics to find reasons for the success of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, the Premier League’s leading scorer:

“One reason for his upturn in goalscoring opportunities is the fact Ancelotti is deploying him as a classic number nine. Calvert-Lewin has seen his average touches per 90 minutes drop under the Italian’s management, but at the same time seen more of the ball inside the opposition goal area. Fifteen per cent of his touches have been inside the penalty box since Ancelotti took charge, a big increase from previous managers. When compared to other Premier League strikers since Ancelotti arrived at Goodison Park, Calvert-Lewin is one of the standouts.”

Full article: Stats Perform

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Is 49ers defense vulnerable to rushing QB?
Is 49ers defense vulnerable to rushing QB?

Is the 49ers defense particularly vulnerable to running quarterbacks? The Athletic discusses in their Truth or Myth series:

“So we can dig deeper and look at expected points added (EPA) from TruMedia. …

What about QB scrambles? That is where the 49ers have struggled. They rank 30th in EPA and 31st in EPA per snap on QB scrambles. One thing to keep in mind is that we’re dealing with a relatively small sample and one bad game can have a huge impact. Murray’s game against the 49ers in September was the best scrambling performance in terms of EPA by a quarterback all season. If we were to remove that game, the 49ers would rank in the top 10 against scrambles.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Murray not contributing with his legs
Murray not contributing with his legs

The Cardinals offense hasn't been the same since Kyler Murray's reported injury, writes Neil Greenberg in his Week 14 picks column:

“If Murray can’t extend plays with his legs, that turns a once-dynamic offense into a one-dimensional shell of its former self. From the start of the season through Week 10, Arizona scored eight points per game more than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. That figure plummeted to one point per game fewer than expected since Week 11.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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