David Lombardi continues his breakdown of the 49ers season by using TruMedia’s EPA model to highlight special-teams inefficiences:

“Through EPA, we can pinpoint how the 49ers fared in all facets of special teams, where inefficiencies may sometimes not be as apparent as they are on offense and defense.

The EPA table below, courtesy of TruMedia, shows the cumulative totals of each facet. The final row accounts for all special teams plays, including some aspects that aren’t otherwise listed, including extra points. Blue denotes above-average performance while red shows below-average finishes.

Cumulatively, the 2020 49ers came close to being the inverse of the 2011 “Tony Montana Squad” 49ers, whose special teams unit finished No. 1 in multiple phases and led the NFL at plus-66 expected points on the season.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s EPA model and research platform to analyze what the Buccaneers did well against Aaron Rodgers in Week 6:

“Week 6 against Tampa Bay was by far the Packers’ worst offensive performance of the season, according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. What was it that gave Green Bay so much trouble, and was it just a bad game, or did Tampa Bay find a formula for slowing down Rodgers?

A big factor was the Bucs’ ability to pressure Rodgers. He was pressured on a season-high 30.8 percent of his pass plays. Blitzing is in Bowles’ DNA, and he wasn’t afraid to be aggressive against Rodgers. In the first three quarters, before the outcome had been decided, Bowles blitzed Rodgers 50 percent of the time. It was by far Rodgers’ worst performance against the blitz all season in terms of EPA per play. He completed 5 of 16 attempts for 48 yards and two interceptions while also taking two sacks.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Mike Sando uses TruMedia’s EPA model to examine how Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been helped and hindered by their defense and special teams over the years:

“The table below captures context that is frequently ignored when discussing quarterbacks. It shows cumulative team EPA on defense and special teams during the 200 most recent starts for each quarterback. The Saints cratered from 2012 through 2016, ranking 32nd in this category three times during those five seasons. New Orleans was also 31st during one of those seasons. That is how the Saints posted a 7-9 record four times in five years despite ranking no lower than fourth in offensive EPA during any of those lost seasons.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Tashan Reed uses TruMedia’s research platform to dive into Derek Carr's 2020 numbers, including his favorite routes, how he handled the blitz, and downfield throws:

“What jumps out more is his effectiveness on deep shots. He completed 51.8 percent of his go-route attempts (second). He averaged 15.6 yards on those attempts (third) and 10 were for touchdowns (tied for sixth). Despite those numbers, he ranked just 11th in attempts on go routes.

Carr also ranked ninth in yards per attempt on post routes and fifth in yards per attempt on crossing routes, which signals his success on go routes wasn’t a fluke. The Raiders pushed the ball downfield more often (Carr had fewer attempts on go and crosser routes in 2019), but they need to further increase that frequency in 2021. The short-to-intermediate routes still serve a purpose, but Carr showed he can make the offense more vertical.”

Full article: The Athletic

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David Lombardi breaks down the 49ers evolving pass defense, and what's next after the departure of Robert Saleh:

"49ers pass defense efficiency (TruMedia)

2019: +7.0 EPA/100 plays (No. 2)
2020: -4.1 EPA/100 plays (No. 7)

That 11.1-point gap between No. 2 in 2019 and No. 7 in 2020 is as big as the chasm between the No. 7 and No. 29-ranked defenses this past season. There’s a substantial difference between an elite pass defense a merely good one.

With their pass rush sputtering, the 49ers fell into that latter category.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Taron Johnson's pick-six for the Bills had an EPA swing of 10.7, the sixth-largest swing of any postseason play since 2000. Mike Sando explains and runs through the top five:

Johnson’s pick-six interception off Jackson late in the third quarter was so big, it produced the sixth-largest EPA swing on a single postseason play since 2000, according to TruMedia. Here’s how that play produced a 10.7-point swing, tied for the Bills’ second-largest positive swing on any play since 2000:

The Ravens faced third-and-goal from the Buffalo 9-yard line with 58 seconds left in the third quarter. That situation is worth about 4.0 EPA to the offense, which represents the likelihood of all the potential outcomes. … Barring a turnover or especially bad sack, the offense will be in prime position to attempt a high-percentage field-goal try, at least.

Bottom line, if you’re the Ravens on Saturday night, you’re expecting to get about four points from that situation on average. … What the Ravens got, instead, was the worst possible outcome, a pick-six and a Bills PAT, converting that 4.0 EPA into a touchdown and PAT try for the Bills. That’s how 10.7 EPA changes hands in a single play.

Full article: The Athletic

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David Lombardi continues his review of the 49ers season by looking at the defensive line:

“Below is a summary of the 49ers’ snap totals, sack counts and pressure-generating performances across the defensive line, featuring data from TruMedia. The main metric: Pressures generated per pass-rushing snap.

Darker blue denotes performance further above the NFL median of about 8 percent, while darker red shows performance further below it. …

This was the season of Hyder, and it’s hard to imagine where the 49ers would’ve been without his contributions. The only other full-time lineman who registered an above-average pressure rate was Armstead, who didn’t come close to matching his 2019 sack count (10).”

Full article: The Athletic

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Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s EPA model to spotlight the divisional matchup between Aaron Rodgers and the Rams blitz:

“Aaron Rodgers lit teams up when they rushed five or more. The Packers ranked fourth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per snap when opponents blitzed, according to TruMedia’s model. If the Rams aren’t able to disguise their pressure looks, chances are Rodgers will find their weaknesses in coverage.”

Full article: The Athletic

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How Josh Allen handles the Ravens blitz will be key to their divisional matchup, writes Sheil Kapadia:

“But the Ravens’ blitz packages weren’t nearly as effective as they were last year. Baltimore ranked 19th in EPA per snap when it blitzed, according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus. In 2019, the Ravens were the league’s most effective blitzing team.

Allen, meanwhile, has shredded the blitz all season long. The Bills rank third (EPA per snap) league-wide when opponents send five or more pass rushers.”

Full article: The Athletic

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David Lombardi reviews San Francisco’s 2020 offensive line performance, with the help of TruMedia’s research platform and PFF data:

Below is a summary of the 49ers’ snap division and pass blocking performance across the offensive line, featuring data from TruMedia. The metric: Pressures allowed per snap.

Darker green denotes performance further above the NFL median, while darker red shows performance further below it. Linemen’s percentages are shaded in relation to other performers at their position (for linemen who played multiple positions, pressure rates are cumulative).

There’s too much red on that table.

Full article: The Athletic

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What happened to the Seahawks offense this season? Sheil Kapadia investigates, with the help of TruMedia’s research platform and EPA model:

“In their first eight games, the Seahawks’ performance in terms of TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model would’ve translated to the league’s second-best offense over the course of the entire season. From Week 10 on (including the playoffs), their performance would’ve translated to the 26th-ranked offense.

The Seahawks scored 30 points or more in seven of their first eight games. They reached 30 points just once over their last nine games.”

Full article: The Athletic

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The Packers use of play-action will be a key factor in their matchup with the Rams on Saturday, say Sheil Kapadia and Ted Nguyen:

“The Packers’ use of play-action will be another key. Rodgers used play-action at the sixth-highest rate and carved defenses up, producing a league-best 0.41 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play on those throws, according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus. This is one of the few areas in which the Rams were actually vulnerable. They ranked 14th (EPA per play) against play-action but were the league’s best passing defense when opponents didn’t use play-action.”

Full article: The Athletic

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David Lombardi uses TruMedia’s research platform to study the performance of 49ers receivers this season:

“YPRR, or yards per route run, comes from PFF and TruMedia. It’s a receiving measure that accounts not only for total catches and yards but also for how often an offense looks each receiver’s way. Kittle, for example, racked up 634 receiving yards on 48 catches this season, but the efficiency story is incomplete without considering how many pass routes (223) he ran.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Mike Sando examines the numbers behind Aaron Rodgers’ improvement this season, including increased success on play-action:

“Rodgers finished the regular season with 21 touchdowns and zero interceptions on play-action passes, according to TruMedia and PFF. Rodgers had three total touchdown passes with an interception on play-action passes in 2019. Of his 21 this season, six were from the 1-yard line. A second year in coach Matt LaFleur’s offense could be contributing to the Packers hitting stride in general, which would be reflected in their play-action game, a LaFleur staple.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Who stood out in the 49ers injury-wracked backfield last season? David Lombardi and Matt Barrows take a look:

As far as consistency, Mostert and Wilson paced the 49ers’ backs when it came to the rate of runs that yielded positive expected points, per TruMedia:

Rushing success rate

1. Mostert: 44.6%

2. Wilson: 43.4%

3. McKinnon: 34.3%

Full article: The Athletic

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Seattle's loss to the Rams was Pete Carroll's worst nightmare and Russell Wilson's worst playoff game, writes Mike Dugar:

“Wilson had the worst playoff game of his career, posting a career-low minus-10.91 expected points added (EPA), according to TruMedia. His previous low was the NFC Championship Game against Green Bay (minus-7.11). Wilson completed only 11 of 27 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns, one of which was mostly meaningless seeing as it cut the deficit to 10 points with 2:28 remaining. Wilson was sacked five times and threw a pick six in the postseason for only the second time.”

Full article: The Athletic

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