Posts in In the Media
Ravens defense better than expected

The concern about Baltimore's defensive decline has not panned out, writes The Athletic’s Mike Sando in his column looking back at preseason issues for all 32 teams:

“Baltimore’s defense has been effective without former mainstays C.J. Mosley and Terrell Suggs. Acquiring cornerback Marcus Peters during the season helped, but preseason worries were overblown. Baltimore ranks fourth in points allowed and sixth in defensive expected points added, according to the EPA model Dean Oliver developed for TruMedia Networks. The Ravens’ offense has something to do with that, scoring points on the ground and through the air so frequently that the defense can more readily play its aggressive style against opponents who are forced to play from behind.”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, The AthleticComment
Top NFC records may be misleading

The NFC has five 10-win teams through 14 games, and the records may be deceiving for several of those teams, writes Neil Greenberg, with the help of TruMedia’s research tool and expected-points model:

“Looked at another way, opponents at or below .500 are scoring 8.4 fewer points per 100 snaps than expected against the Saints based on the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. Opponents with a winning record, on the other hand, have scored 15.4 more points than expected per 100 snaps against New Orleans in 2019. Only the defenses of the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Oakland Raiders have performed worse against winning teams this season. That’s a warning sign entering the playoffs.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, Washington PostComment
Don't overlook the Bills

The Athletic’s Mike Sando says not to overlook Buffalo when considering which AFC teams might topple the Ravens…

“I think the Bills and their fans are sick of hearing about the same old criticisms of their offense, and that Buffalo would have a shot against the Ravens based on overall team strength. Buffalo is fourth in defensive expected points added (EPA), third in special-teams EPA and seventh in net EPA, according to the model sports analytics pioneer Dean Oliver developed for TruMedia Networks. But the Bills are 21st in offensive EPA and 22 in offensive points per game (New England is 20th and 11th, respectively, for what that is worth).”

Full article: The Athletic

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, The AthleticComment
Can run games be better?

FiveThirtyEight’s Josh Hermsmeyer uses TruMedia’s animated play card to demonstrate a guard pulling into the gap ahead of a running back, then uses TruMedia’s research tool to dig into the data…

“The diagram below shows a pull in action. It highlights a guard on the left side of the formation who leaves his spot on the line and travels down the line of scrimmage, into the gap the running back (in green) is heading toward.

Pulls have been quite effective across the NFL in recent years. Since 2016, the first year for which we have Next Gen Stats tracking data, rushing plays in which a lineman pulled and then blocked three gaps or more away from where he initially lined up have averaged 0.01 EPA per play. While that might sound meager, compared to plays where no blocker pulled (-0.05 EPA), it’s a striking level of efficiency. And in the low red zone, conventionally defined as from the 10-yard line to the opponent’s goal, pulling generates 0.03 more EPA per play than plays with no puller.”

Full article: FiveThirtyEight

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, FiveThirtyEightComment
Redskins defense has struggled for a decade

Neil Greenberg highlights the Redskins perennially struggling defense in his deconstruction of Bruce Allen’s tenure as Redskins GM…

“According to TruMedia’s expected points added metric, which calculates the number of points scored above or below what we would expect given the down, distance and field position of each play against, the Redskins have the seventh-worst rate over the past decade. Washington has only allowed fewer points than expected per 100 snaps once during Allen’s tenure, in 2017. Every other NFL team except the Raiders has more than one defensive season in the decade with a positive expected points allowed per 100 snaps.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, Washington PostComment
Michael Thomas for MVP?

Neil Greenberg makes Michael Thomas’ MVP case, in part by using TruMedia’s expected-points model…

“The Ravens have scored 28.2 more points than expected per 100 throws from (Lamar) Jackson, according to data from TruMedia. Baltimore has scored 17 more points than expected per 100 snaps when he rushes the ball.

By comparison, when (Christian) McCaffrey rushes the ball for Carolina, the Panthers score almost eight fewer points than expected per 100 carries. That’s not surprising; rushing in the modern NFL is not an efficient way to score.

Passes to (Michael) Thomas, on the other hand, are extremely lucrative. When New Orleans quarterbacks target him, the Saints are scoring almost 57 points more than expected per 100 throws. Think he has not been valuable to the Saints’ offense?”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, Washington PostComment
NFC East is embarrassing itself

The NFC East is embarrassing itself, says Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post, using TruMedia’s research tool to back up his point:

“According to data provided by TruMedia, NFC East teams are 3-18 against opponents with winning records, the division’s worst such mark at this point of the season since the NFL expanded to 32 teams and realigned into eight divisions in 2002. In another bit of ugliness, NFC East teams are just 10-26 in games outside of their division — again, the worst mark at this point of the season since the birth of the current league configuration.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, Washington PostComment
Cousins now a bargain

Kirk Cousins was a bust last season, and now he’s turned into a bargain, writes Neil Greenberg in The Washington Post:

“Minnesota’s offense produced 0.2 expected points added per game on Cousins’s throws last season, per data from TruMedia — that’s the number of points scored above what we would expect given the down, distance and field position of each play. Based on the relationship between performance and salary over the past few years, that showing should have been worth $1.1 million in cap dollars. It was a far cry from the $24 million cap hit Minnesota’s front office earmarked for Cousins that season.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, Washington PostComment
Ravens defense is dominating

Lamar Jackson has been so good that he’s overshadowed what may be the league’s best defense, says Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post:

“With their aggressive blitz fully operational, the Ravens are allowing 1.2 points per drive since Week 7, the third-best rate in the league, while their red-zone defense has limited opponents to a league-leading 31 percent success rate. In that span, opponents are scoring 13 points per game fewer than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. Baltimore allowed four points per game more than expected during the first six weeks of the season.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, Washington PostComment
Falcons secondary is vulnerable

Neil Greenberg on why he likes the Saints to cover against the Falcons on Thanksgiving…

“Look for Saints wideout Michael Thomas to feast on the Falcons’ secondary. Thomas leads the league in receptions (104) and receiving yards (1,242) and has helped New Orleans quarterbacks produce a 125.5 passer rating when he’s targeted this season. Atlanta, meanwhile, is allowing a league-high 114.1 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks who target their wideouts, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, Washington PostComment
Brady not playing like elite QB

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s football research tool and expected-points model to suggest that Tom Brady is not playing like an elite quarterback

“Passes from Brady to Edelman are also producing 3.5 more points than expected per 100 snaps after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each throw, per data from TruMedia. That’s a far cry from years past but still good enough to exceed expectations. The same can’t be said for Brady’s overall performance.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, Washington PostComment
Liverpool-Man City and Karl Toko Ekambi

ESPN’s Kieran Darcy uses TruMedia’s research tool and expected goals model to look at Liverpool’s win over Manchester City and to make Karl Toko Ekambi one of his weekly fantasy picks:

“In fact, Man City only outshot Liverpool 18-12, and topped them in terms of xG (expected goals) according to TruMedia's model by a slim 1.76-1.26. margin. Liverpool simply was the more clinical side in terms of finishing.”

“Ekambi is tied for sixth in the league in shots with 31. And he's second in the league in xG (expected goals), according to TruMedia's model, at 6.71. The only player ahead of him is Benzema at 7.91, and Benzema has played 145 more minutes than Ekambi.”

Full articles on ESPN.com: Premier League, La Liga

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonsoccer, Fantasy Soccer, espnComment
Bench Courtland Sutton vs the Bills

In his weekly start/sit column, The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg suggests benching Courtland Sutton against the Bills…

“[Sutton] has caught 49 of 76 targets for 805 yards and four touchdowns through 10 games, all improvements over his rookie campaign. However, the Broncos now face the Bills, one of six teams that have intercepted more passes to wideouts than they have allowed touchdowns, per data from TruMedia, giving Buffalo’s defense the second-lowest passer rating against this season when opposing quarterbacks target their wide receivers (76.1).”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe AndersonFantasy Football, nflComment
NFC East on record-low pace

Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s NFL research tool to emphasize the NFC East’s struggles this season…

“In fact, this is the lowest win rate the NFC East has recorded at this point of the season since the league expanded to 32 teams and realigned to eight four-team divisions in 2002. It eclipses the 2015 mark of 15-22 (.405), per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe AndersonWashington Post, nflComment
Redskins offense struggling under Callahan

Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research tool and models to identify the Redskins offensive woes under Bill Callahan…

“Just 42 of [Adrian Peterson’s] 115 carries (37 percent) have been successful this season, per data from TruMedia, with success defined differently based on down and distance. Among rushers with at least 100 carries, only Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon and Jacksonville’s Leonard Fournette have a lower success rate than Peterson.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, Washington PostComment
Beware Vardy's hot start

ESPN’s Kieran Darcy uses TruMedia’s expected-goals model to warn fantasy players about Jamie Vardy’s hot start…

“Leicester's Jamie Vardy is the league leader in goals, with 10 in 11 games. That's pretty remarkable, given Vardy will turn 33 in January.

That being said, Vardy has scored those 10 goals on only 22 shots - so he's averaging just two shots per game. And in terms of xG (expected goals), according to TruMedia's model, Vardy is ranked only 17th in the league, at 4.17.”

Full article: ESPN.com

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonsoccer, Fantasy Soccer, espnComment
Start the Giants defense

In his weekly start/sit column, The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research tool and expected-points model to suggest starting the Giants defense this week…

“The Giants are a risky play most weeks but Sunday’s opponent, the cross-town New York Jets, are having a lot of difficulty on offense this season. The team is averaging less than a point per drive and has been forced to go three-and-out more than 47 percent of the time. Both are league lows. Over their past three games, Jets quarterbacks have been sacked 12 times and have thrown eight interceptions.

The Jets are also scoring 17 points per game fewer than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each offensive play, per TruMedia. That’s the worst mark since 2002, the first year the league expanded to 32 teams.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, Fantasy Football, Washington PostComment
Grab the Colts defense

Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to recommend the Colts defense for your fantasy team this week…

“The Colts' defense is subpar in many ways, but this week's matchup against the Miami Dolphins is too good to pass up. The Dolphins are scoring just 1.2 points per drive (the third lowest this season) while being forced to go three-and-out on a third of their drives.

Miami is also scoring 12 points per game fewer than you would expect based on the down, distance and field position of each play run, per data from TruMedia, making them the second-worst performing offense of 2019. Only the New York Jets are worse.”

Full article: The Washington Post

Read More
In the MediaRafe Andersonnfl, Fantasy Football, Washington PostComment